By Jason McKeown, Tim Penfold and Alex Scott

See the first, second, third, fourth and fifth parts of our Bradford City squad assessment.

We’ve looked at the strength of City’s goalkeeping, wing back, central defender, defensive midfield and attacking midfield squad options. That just leaves us with the strikers. As we’ve established, how potent City’s frontline proves to be is likely to make all the difference. We need the club to score at least 11 more goals in 2024/25 if they are to have a chance of the top three.

So let’s get into it.

Andy Cook

By Jason

Bradford City have scored 151 goals – league and cup – over the past two seasons. Andy Cook scored 50 and assisted 16 of them. That means 43% of all Bradford City goals since July 2022 have involved Cook. The big number 9 has proved absolutely vital to the cause. A pattern that’s only likely to continue.

Last season was a slightly odd one for Cook, where even his best moments felt like a diminishing return from his career-best highs of 2022/23. A narrative formed that he was having a slightly disappointing season, with his own body language betraying his frustration. 19 goals was still a great return and put him in the division’s top 10 leading scorers. But it wasn’t quite the 31 goals of the year before.

In 2022/23, Cook set a standard that few could match. Not least Cook himself.

The good news for City was that even with Cook less prolific, they managed the same number of League Two goals (61) as the year before. The bad news? 61 goals isn’t really enough for any club with promotion aspirations. They are starting to share the goals around better, but still rely on Cook to carry most of the burden.

And so for this season – year two of the three-year contract Cook was awarded last summer – City need their talisman to avoid any further diminishing returns. A repeat of 19 goals and 8 assists will do just fine, if at least one if not two of Jake Young, Calum Kavanagh and Tyler Smith get into double figures. But ideally, we want Cook to get North of 20 goals once again. For the lean periods of 2023/24 (like not scoring a goal until late September) to not be repeated.

This especially includes at Valley Parade, where last season Cook only netted four league goals. Most City supporters only see home league games, and so most supporters didn’t see the best of Andy Cook in 2023/24. With the 3-5-2 approach providing him a strike partner, the shoulders no longer need to be as broad.

And that more than anything is key. In 2022/23 Cook largely led the line on his own but was supported from the bench by Vadaine Oliver, who regularly replaced Cook after 70-75 minutes to help the top scorer’s fitness and workload. With Oliver injured and then loaned out over 2023/24, Cook had to complete a lot more full matches. He was less fresh as a result. Less sharp. Still fantastic, just not 2022/23 fantastic.

With some good strikers on the books, Alexander can use Cook wisely to preserve his fitness and manage his stamina. It might mean Cook doesn’t start every game (though Alexander is not a rotator). But if Cook can be kept fresher, history suggests he will be more effective.

Ultimately City cannot cope without Cook. If he’s fit, firing and prolific, the Bantams have a great chance. He’s our most potent weapon and still absolutely vital to our chances.

What a good season looks like: He bags plenty of goals and assists, if a little too quiet in some games and ruing a few missed penalties. Andy Cook in 2023/24.

What a great season looks like: Do we even need to debate this one? Andy Cook in 2022/23.

Vadaine Oliver

By Alex

Vadaine is back in claret and amber this season after an unsuccessful loan spell last season at Stevenage in League One. Entering the final year of his contract, Oliver will likely end his City career as he began it, backing up Andy Cook in the ‘big man up top ‘ role. 

We’ve had a running joke on the podcast for the last couple of years that even though Oliver didn’t really fit Mark Hughes’s style, in a rare act of forward planning, he was actually signed for Hughes’ replacement 18 months in the future who would inevitably be a long ball merchant and Oliver would fit right in. Yet in an ironic turn of events, whilst the new long ball manager prediction came true, the club then almost immediately loaned out Oliver to someone else! They finally were playing a style that would suit him and they got rid of him!

Anyway, Oliver is now back and with his new manager he might actually have a chance to impact the team. The style of play should suit him, and with Alexander seeming set at this point on Big Man-Little Man up top, there’s a clear role for Oliver supporting Andy Cook. 

While he’s never exactly torn up any trees at Valley Parade, City pretty clearly missed him last year as the season wore on. In his first season, Mark Hughes dropped Cook for Oliver for almost a month mid-season, frustrating many fans (including me), yet this period of a break was absolutely pivotal to give Cook a rest and he came storming back later in the season to score 15 in 19 to lead City to the play offs. As it turns out Mark Hughes knows more about football than I do. 

Last season, Oliver wasn’t there after Christmas to spell Cook, who was the sole Big Man in a squad determined to play long ball football. This resulted in Cook fading to look like an even less mobile Harry Kane as the team’s play off run collapsed. 

This year Oliver could have a key role trying to repeat his first season’s form at Valley Parade but in a side better suited to his style. He’s probably not going to lead City to promotion but ensuring Cook can be subbed off after 70 minutes each week and take a breather on Tuesdays might do the team the world of good. 

What a good season looks like: He helps Cook, and the team acting as a good foil for his more illustrious team mates, whilst chipping in with important goals on the way. Barry Conlon in 2008/09.

What a great season looks like: He manages to take hold of increasing first team opportunities becoming a goal threat in a team suited around his strengths. James Hanson in 2011/12.

Calum Kavanagh

By Tim

Calum Kavanagh’s arrival from Middlesbrough in January was met with scepticism – did Stephen Gent know that players outside of the Teesside area existed? Yet, as the season went on, Kavanagh proved himself a very useful player – a versatile attacker who was a goal threat and a good foil for Andy Cook.

His underlying numbers are decent – 0.56 open play expected goals (xG) per 90 would have been the highest of the entire squad if he had met the minutes thresholds, and 0.11 expected assists (xA) per 90 again would have been more than his two obvious competitors (Young and Smith) combined. 

Kavanagh also ranks highly in touches in the opposition box and winning possession back in the final third. So he gets into good goalscoring positions – the biggest factor in being a prolific goalscorer – harries defenders into errors and is a reasonable if not outstanding creator. The partnership with Cook is promising, with Kavanagh doing a lot of the legwork and running the channels, allowing Cook to be more of a penalty box threat.

There is room for improvement of course – he’s not a great dribbler, he’s average at best aerially and his link play needs some work – but he is only 20. If he repeats what he managed last season over a full campaign then we’re looking at double figures minimum for goals, and he has the potential to really break out and be the second goal threat we’ve needed to support Cook.

What a good season looks like: He continues to play well, work hard and gets a decent amount of goals from the time he spends on the pitch, even if he’s not outright first choice. Nahki Wells 2011/12.

What a great season looks like: He has a breakout campaign and is first choice for much of the season, going past 20 goals as City launch a promotion challenge. Nahki Wells 2012/13.

Jake Young

By Tim

Kavanagh’s main competition for the role alongside Andy Cook is City’s prodigal loanee, Jake Young. 12 months ago, Young looked destined for a City exit – he’d had flashes of promise early on, but had faded out of contention, and an uninspiring loan spell at Barrow suggested that he wasn’t quite up to league football. He was left out of the tour to Spain, played with the kids at Park Avenue and waited for a move away. It came in the form of a loan to Swindon, just like Eoin Doyle in 2019 – and just like Doyle his form suddenly took off.

16 goals in 25 games turned him from a man awaiting a non-league offer to someone suddenly looking at a move higher up the leagues. City inevitably recalled him, but injury kept him out and everyone expected a move away.

This move never came – the offers were just too low for the club to accept – and Young returned to City colours, but his form didn’t really transfer over. He had been playing through an injury at Swindon, who were squeezing as much use out of him as they could, and this eventually meant that he sat out the rest of the season having had surgery on his hamstring.

This is a big season for Young, who will be looking to establish himself alongside Cook in City’s strike force. He’ll want to prove that last season wasn’t a flash in the pan, and that he can be a regular goalscorer at this level, and if he does that then City will have some very strong striking options.

What a good season looks like: He establishes himself as a decent enough goalscorer at this level and is first choice to partner Cook. Andy Gray 2002/03.

What a great season looks like: He does what he did last season for Swindon, but does it wearing claret and amber. Jake Young 2023/24.

Tyler Smith

By Alex

Let’s play a game! You’ve watched enough of City last season to have a good handle on what these players are about. Which player had the highest expected goals per game in the league last season? Quick! Don’t look it up!

You see, the thing about expected goals is that doesn’t seem to factor in who it is trying scoring the goals into its expectations. I’ve certainly seen enough to Tyler Smith not to get too excited when a chance opens up for him. I might not even look up from my phone. Ah, keeper saved it, did he? What are the odds?

Statistically, Tyler Smith was our most dangerous striker last season in terms of expected goals per 90 minutes, and that’s including Jake Young’s spell at Swindon. Both the words ‘most’ and ‘dangerous’ are looking around this sentence wondering what they are doing here, but yep, I’ve checked the numbers and here we are. Top 10 in the entire division by that stat! Top 10!

Needless to say, Smith dramatically underperformed his xG, scoring only half the amount of goals you’d have expected him to score. Offering essentially nothing in build up play or in pressing, Smith took the form of a poacher who cannot poach. Nahki Wells but without the running. Or being able to shoot. 

The question for Smith, and City, this year is whether this was a season’s worth of bad luck or something more. Smith does appear a streaky player, and if we’re counting Jonny Paint games against teenagers up past their bedtime, he did have a streak last season of nine goals in ten games. The rest of the season against grown ups though was very much streakless. 

We’ve probably learned from last season Smith cannot play with Andy Cook given neither has the ability to press and end up looking like traffic cones to pass around out of possession. Given they both still have two more years to run on their hefty contracts, this is… suboptimal. But with Calum Kavanagh and Jake Young ahead of Smith in the pecking order of Little Man to Andy Cook’s Big Man, perhaps it won’t be too much of an issue?

The thing is, guys who can score goals are always going to have a role in good teams. Getting into good positions is the best way to score goals. Being able to bring Tyler Smith on with ten minutes to go to try and sniff out a goal is probably the perfect role for him, and one that is always going to be valuable for teams like City who should be competing towards the top of the table.

The chances should arise if they are chasing the game. See Smith’s unexpected winner towards the end of last season in a must win game against Barrow. There aren’t really many others in the squad who can score that goal. He has this in him, it was just too rarely seen last season.

Will it be The Law of Averages or The Gambler’s Fallacy this season? 

A disappointing start to his City career for sure, and he will have a lot of work to do to jump Young and Kavanagh for starting minutes, but Smith could have a key role to play this year off the bench helping City reach their goal target needed for promotion. 

What a good season looks like: He’s mostly used off the bench but picks up some key goals as the season goes on. Alan Connell in 2012/13.

What a great season looks like: He starts the year out the team but overtakes heavy competition by scoring a hatful of goals to help City get promoted. Robbie Blake in 1998/99.

Harry Ibbotson

By Tim

It’s always exciting when you see a youth team prospect on the scoresheet repeatedly. From the record-breaking early 2000s pairing of Danny Forrest and Kevin Sanasy, to Oli McBurnie grabbing hat tricks, to Reece Webb-Foster. Of these, Harry Ibbitson is closest in style to McBurnie – not a pure target man, but a tall, technically proficient striker with a knack for scoring goals.

Of course, this means some excitement in having this goalscoring prospect must be tempered slightly. McBurnie was dominant in the youth team, but was not physically ready to be the target man in Phil Parkinson’s direct style. It took a few more years – and a move to Swansea – for McBurnie to grow into the player he has become. City may have to play the long game here, but if they do it well, then in a couple of years time, when Andy Cook’s contract is up, we could have his replacement at the club already.

Ibbitson is in his under-19 year. At the same stage of his career, James Hanson was playing for Eccleshill United, while Andy Cook was having a couple of unspectacular loan spells in the 5th and 6th tier. This is the problem faced by young big strikers – they need time to physically grow and adapt to men’s football, even if they dominate at youth level.

Ibbitson will need that time, and games at senior level – and that will probably mean a year of Football League Trophy games and loan spells. Maybe a spell at Farsley, learning from Clayton Donaldson?

What a good season looks like: Continues to excel at youth level, some decent loan spells and maybe a first team debut? Kevin Sanasy 2002/03.

What a great season looks like: Gets his chance in the first team and takes it, with a few goals along the way. Danny Forrest 2002/03.

The verdict

It was all about Andy Cook a year ago. Pleasingly now it isn’t. The big number nine is of course still absolutely crucial, but the emergence of Young at Swindon and Kavanagh at City means there looks to be plenty of other goals in the team. Competition for places up front, which hasn’t been enough of the case in recent years.

It does look like City are capable of bridging the 11-goal shortfall they realistically need to compete for the automatic promotion places. This should be a year of goals. They have a forward line few clubs in League Two can match. They just have to go out and show it.

Categories: Previews

Tags: 2024/25, BCAFC