By Jason McKeown

So here we go then! Eight weeks left between now and the end of the League Two season. 11 games to go for Bradford City. And it’s all very, very exciting. Tuesday’s 3-0 thumping over Cheltenham puts them eight points clear of fourth placed Notts County, and two points behind leaders Walsall.

Back in July when previewing the season, we said that – on average – a third-place finish in League Two requires 82 points. If this is to be the case again, City need to get 16 points from their final 11 games (effectively five more wins and a point). Based on their season average of 1.89 points per game (PPG), they’re on track to finish on with 86 points. So all very promising, but plenty still to do.

The state of play

As ever at this stage, there are teams with games in hand that muddy the overall picture. But as it stands, fair to say that all of the current top seven can harbour realistic top three hopes (Grimsby might not have given up yet either). That said, Crewe, who have played more games than the three sides above them, and who had a dreadful midweek result, will be looking over their shoulders as much as they are upwards.

Doncaster’s defeat to Bromley leaves them vulnerable to being caught by the teams below them, especially Port Vale, who have two games in hand. The play off race isn’t over, but Bromley, Colchester and Salford have a lot to do.

What we care about, of course, is Bradford City. The midweek results were incredibly kind to them. As the only side in the top eight to win, there is now some margin for error. And what’s more, the Bantams are the division’s form team. Over the last 12 matches, they’ve picked up 31 points – seven more than anybody else.

Such form sets them up nicely. The ever-helpful Soccerstats.com website analyses each club’s run-in, calculating the PPG of their remaining opponents to get an average difficulty score. There’s not a lot in it, but on this basis, AFC Wimbledon have the toughest run-in, followed by Port Vale and then Doncaster. Out of the top eight sides, the Bantams have the fourth-hardest run in. 

City’s final 11 games feature a mixture of winnable-looking fixtures and some potentially mega promotion six pointers. It’s going to be nerve-jangling, but it’s also going to be something to relish.

Let’s look at our run-in and what we have to look forward to.

(Quick sidenote beforehand. In the run-in, Sky Sports are announcing TV picks for each round on a weekly basis, with a four-week notice period. For example, last week they announced City’s game with Accrington was being moved to a 12.30pm kick off. At least two fixtures a round will be switched for TV coverage, possibly more. We should definitely expect more of City’s fixtures to be moved over the next few weeks.)

The next four games are important in getting points on the board

City travel to Gillingham this weekend, before consecutive Saturday home games against Tranmere and Colchester. March ends with a lunchtime trip to Accrington.

There is an argument to make that, on paper, these are the four easiest fixtures they have left to play. Gillingham are having a really difficult season, languishing 19th. Recent form is very yikes – just one win in their last 12, with only seven goals – the lowest in the division. Since City beat Gills 2-1 in October, manager Mark Bonner has been sacked and former Accrington boss John Coleman given the gig for the rest of the season. The change hasn’t worked. They’ve won just once since Christmas, and that was against second-bottom Morecambe.

After that it’s a Tranmere side hovering close to the bottom two, in even more yikes form than the Gills. They haven’t won in 12 games, and haven’t achieved a single victory on the road since mid-October. Rovers are also the joint lowest scorers in the division with a mere 25 goals. Amidst takeover talk, Nigel Adkins held onto his job arguably too long before he was finally sacked at the end of February. Ryan Lowe is rumoured to be in the frame to take over, and Tranmere should head to Valley Parade in just over a week hoping for a new manager bounce.

What it means is City’s next two games are against two of the three most out-of-form sides in the league. And, really, you can’t ask for better opponents at this stage.

After that, Colchester are up next for City, also at home. They are certainly a better outfit than Gillingham and Tranmere right now. Danny Cowley has steered them into the top 10 after a slow start to the season, and they’re unbeaten in 10 games. They have an outside chance of the play offs, but a ridiculous 16 draws from 34 games is holding them back. On the road they’ve won four, lost three and drawn 10. So this won’t be easy. Still, with City’s top three aspirations, they have to be looking to win this one.

Then it’s Accrington who, like Tranmere, hover nervously above the drop zone. They’ve probably got enough about them to stay up, winning two of their last three games to go seven points clear of the bottom two. But they have lost three and drawn three at home to the other sides in the top seven. All in all, Stanley have the third-worst home record in League Two right now.  

There is no doubt City need to get a good points haul over March, because it gets a lot more difficult from then on…

Elsewhere in League Two over this period

The early kick offs are interesting this coming weekend, as AFC Wimbledon host Notts County and leaders Walsall welcome play off chasing Grimsby. Among the 3pm kick offs is fading Salford vs an up-and-down Crewe.

Crewe have quite the month. The weekend after, they welcome Doncaster to Gresty Road and the Saturday after that sees a trip to Notts County. They also have a home game with local rivals Port Vale, followed by a visit from Grimsby in early April (and then, as we’ll come onto, they go to Valley Parade!)

Salford host Doncaster on the same day that City play Colchester. And on the same Saturday the Bantams are at Accrington, it’s Walsall vs AFC Wimbledon.

Keep an eye out for midweek games too. Whilst City start to have some Tuesdays off this month, Port Vale, AFC Wimbledon and Salford play their games in hand. Next Tuesday also sees Notts County travel to Grimsby.  

The six-pointers begin ahead of Easter

After the trip to the Crown Ground, it’s the all too familiar journey to Port Vale on a Tuesday night. The Valiants are a tough nut to crack at home with just two losses so far. They topped the league for a long spell prior to Christmas, before a mid-season slump. But they’re on the way back with just one defeat in 11. And with two games in hand, they retain strong top three hopes. This promises to be a big night for both clubs.

Then on the Saturday that follows, Crewe come to Valley Parade. Another big one this. Crewe are certainly all over the place right now, with four wins, four draws and four defeats from their last 12 games. But they do travel pretty well, with the sixth-best away record in the division.

The fixture after looks easier on paper for City. But Swindon Town away is rarely a happy hunting ground for the Bantams – just one win in the last nine visits to the County Ground. When City entertained Swindon in December, the Robins were in a right old mess. Form since has been fantastic – 24 points from the last 12 games – and Ian Holloway has steered Swindon well out of trouble. They may have little to play for by the time they welcome City, but if Swindon keep up their recent form they might go into this with distant play off hopes.

After the trip to Wiltshire, the stakes really do rise.

Elsewhere in League Two over this period…

On the same evening City to go Port Vale, it’s Doncaster vs Walsall. The Saddlers welcome Port Vale the week after (announced yesterday as a 12.30pm Sky game). Over the weekend before the Easter period, Notts County have a Friday night home game with Salford City and Doncaster are at home to AFC Wimbledon. 

A mammoth Easter weekend

On Good Friday, Notts County are at Valley Parade. What a huge, huge game this could be. County are currently suffering a slowdown in form (just one win in five) after a run of eight wins in 10. They’ve lost just once on the road since mid-December. If both clubs are in similar league positions to where they are right now, this could be a true six-pointer.

On Easter Monday, it’s a little more straightforward. City are at Chesterfield, who returned to the EFL well fancied to do well but who have disappointed. Chesterfield are fading already, with four defeats in a row and only two wins since Christmas. Paul Cook has already written off their promotion chances. Still, they’ve got a good squad and this isn’t a fixture that will be easy.

At home, Chesterfield have only lost three times so far. Along the way they’ve battered Doncaster 5-2, defeated Wimbledon 1-0 and taken points off Walsall, Port Vale and Notts County. A classic ‘on their day’ team.

Elsewhere in League Two over this period…

There’s no doubt City vs Notts County is the stand-out fixture of Good Friday, with the other top three contenders all having reasonably kind fixtures (Port Vale go to Carlisle, Doncaster go to Tranmere and Walsall are at home to Harrogate).

Easter Monday is also a day of winnable-looking fixtures for all. It all underlines just how huge the City vs Notts County game could be for the winner. This is one Easter especially where promotion can be won and lost.

A potentially even bigger six-pointer then awaits

Two games to go at this point, and the very small matter of Doncaster Rovers away. Blimey. It seems inevitable this game will be switched for TV coverage. Hopefully for City, promotion is already wrapped up by this point, and it’s a celebration rather than a must-win game.

Whatever the situation, it’s a good job Doncaster has a big away end. This is not a game you’ll want to miss.

Elsewhere in League Two on this weekend…

The penultimate weekend of fixtures is definitely tasty. As City and Doncaster lock horns, there’s a big clash between AFC Wimbledon and Port Vale that could decide an awful lot. Walsall are at home to Accrington and Notts County go to Harrogate.

A final day home clash could be kind

Fleetwood are the season’s final day opponents. Another team fancied to do well, but who have flattered to deceive. Right now, their season looks over, and something remarkable will have happened if they turn up to Valley Parade with anything to play for beyond pride.

So a good fixture for City to fall back on, if they need any points to seal promotion or – dare we say it – the title. And if you could script it, wouldn’t it be so special for the Bantams to achieve one or both of these ambitions on their own patch, on the day we will commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Valley Parade fire disaster?

This really could be quite the occasion.

Elsewhere in League Two on this weekend…

The final day fixtures are a spread of tricky and winnable games for the promotion contenders. But there’s one especially stand-out final day game. Notts County vs Doncaster. Crikey. Crewe vs Walsall might also be a big one.

AFC Wimbledon probably won’t relish going to Grimsby if they need points. But Port Vale will be happy to have a final day showdown with Gillingham at home.

Analysing City’s chances

WOAP’s Alex Scott has put together a League Two promotion prediction spreadsheet where you can have a go yourself at forecasting the top seven’s run-in results. All you have to do is select if each team will win, draw, or lose each fixture, and the magic of Excel will keep a running total at the bottom of each club’s league position.

For what it’s worth, I have City to finish on 88 points, sealing automatic promotion with a draw at Doncaster and pipping Walsall (87 points) to be champions on the final day of the season. Alex reckons promotion will be sealed at the Crewe. Always wildly optimistic that lad!

It’s all ifs, buts and maybes. Yet in reality, the healthy cushion City have built up right now, plus the favourable run of fixtures immediately ahead, gives them a chance to seal promotion with games to spare. That would be unprecedented in modern times.

If 16 more points are probably enough, then getting 10 points from these next four games sets them up really well before the final seven matches get tougher. The current trajectory would suggest City can seal promotion over the Easter weekend.

Of course, the league title itself is very much up for grabs right now. City could go top for the first time this weekend, and if Walsall continue to stutter at their current levels, the Bantams could leave them in their slipstream. But you do have to assume that Walsall will get going again. They’re not top of the league by accident. And though they’re missing the recalled Nathan Lowe there are still goals in the team.

Whatever lies ahead, it’s going to be memorable. An end of season run-in to savour every moment of.

Categories: Opinion, Uncategorized

Tags: 2024/25, BCAFC, League Two