By Jake Verity

So, here it is.

A chance to get into the play offs on the final day of the season.

We were down. We were done. We were beaten.

But that’s not stopped us. And we’re back. There’s a fighting chance on the last day.

You see, if there’s one thing that is certain about being a Bradford City fan, it’s that we’re predictably unpredictable. The improbable always becomes possible. And the normal is often the outrageous. Just when this football club has you fed up and out of patience, it finds a way to pull you back in. I wouldn’t have it any other way, but it’s not good for you – that’s for sure.

The reason why I wanted to write this is because I think there’s something broader for us to focus on. Of course, I am desperately hoping we can make the play-offs this weekend; but my point is that there is cause to be optimistic even if we fall short.

Why? Well…

The ‘near miss’ effect

Remember last season on the final day? We needed to get a result to qualify for the play offs. Yes, I know it feels like it was a foregone conclusion that we’d end up in the top-seven last season. But actually, we really needed that point on the final day against already promoted Leyton Orient.

Going into that day, ourselves, Carlisle, Salford and Mansfield all were competing for the final spot. The league looked like this:

5. Carlisle United 75 GD +23

6. Salford City GD +19

7. Bradford City 75 GD +18

8. Mansfield Town 72 GD +15

The play offs were the best we could do after our hopes of the automatics crumbled in front of us during that loss at Crewe. But, as the table shows above, we hadn’t secured a play off place. Mansfield were just three points behind us, Salford and Carlisle. They only trailed each side by a few goals too.

We qualified with a solid draw against Leyton Orient; as had Carlisle by drawing with 14th place Sutton United. But, Mansfield won 2-0 on that final day against 20th place Colchester and reached 75 points. Salford City lost 1-0 to 17th Place Gillingham. It was so close.

5. Carlisle United 76 GD +23

6. Bradford City 76 GD +18

7. Salford City 75 GD +18

8. Mansfield Town 75 GD +17

Just a goal in it. Such a fine margin that separated Mansfield Town in 8th and Salford in 7th. Had we lost? We could have been out of the play-offs…

Mansfield knew going into that final day it was down to them winning, but they needed the teams above to drop points to allow them in. We are basically in Mansfield’s position this time around and we even have David Sharpe at our club.

But you can probably guess where I’m going to go with this. Missing out then may well have been one of the best things that happened to Mansfield. Because they are already on their way to League One with no final day drama needed this time around. They go into this Saturday’s game against Barrow with nothing to lose, apart from the love and adoration of 25,000 Bradfordians if they can beat Barrow.

It’s not just Mansfield though

If you look back over the past few years, there’s been an example pretty much every season where a team narrowly misses out and goes up the year afterwards.

Take the 2021/22 season when Bristol Rovers hit the headlines at Northampton Town’s expense. The Cobblers went into the final day with it basically in their own hands. Bristol Rovers needed to match their result and recover a five goal margin on Northampton to go up – a tall order for any club.

Northampton beat Barrow 3-1 that day, which should have been enough, but Bristol Rovers did the inconceivable. They managed to find a way to beat Scunthorpe 7-0 and booked their place in League One in the most dramatic fashion.

We all know what happened next though. Northampton were promoted last season and didn’t let the disappointment hang around Sixfields. They propelled themselves to promotion and will now spend a second season in League One after staying up this year.

In the 2020/21 season, it was Exeter City’s turn. They missed out on the final day by failing to win and other results going against them. But the following season they went up in second place.

The 2019/20 season was cut short because of the Covid pandemic and the table was worked out on points per game. It’s a slightly different example, but Cheltenham missed out on automatic promotion in fourth place given there was no ‘last day of the season’. But in a similar fashion to the above teams, they went again the next year and won the league.

So what does this actually mean?

I’m not for one second saying I don’t want us to get play-off football and miss out on the final day. I’m planning on a 400 mile round trip to make sure I’m there for it; should we do the unthinkable. But what I think is important to stress is that whatever happens, we must go into next season as motivated as ever. All the teams listed above did this and the result was promotion.

We win and miss out – we now know what we’re capable of. This team has put together a fantastic run of form against some decent sides. We lose and miss out? The above point still stands. We make it into the play-offs? We’ll have incredible momentum to build off.

After a moribund March, we’ve had an amazing April. It feels that the protests before Tranmere might genuinely have been a turning point for the club. Something changed for the better following that Tranmere game and long may it continue. After all, we all want the same thing – success.

The Alexander Effect

I wrote a Thread earlier this week which covered some stats since Graham Alexander took over as manager. I think it’s relevant to mention Alexander ahead of this final game too, because it is down to him that we’ve been able to get to this point.

Yes, we’ve had some bad runs but we’ve also had some very good ones under him too. Full credit for him managing the squad in the way that he has to get us here.

Whatever you think about the style of football, he has the fifth best points per game record of any manager. The only managers to beat him are at Stockport; MK Dons; Wrexham; and Mansfield Town. The Top Four.

The thing that has cost us the most this season is that we’ve either been on long unbeaten runs; or winless runs. There’s been no series of results under Alexander where we’ve won, lost and then won again. This implies to me that there is talent, it’s more of a confidence thing. That can shift and change. He knows the squad very well now, unlike a few months back at the start of the year.

When I talk about the end to the season and the need for it to act as motivation, it’s important to remember that we’ve got a whole summer to give Alexander and he’s probably earned that now. With new players, a long off-season and some confidence in the building, we may be able to do some very good things next year. At least that’s the hope, and I’ll be outlining some of the things that I think could change off the pitch in another article that will be released soon.

This is the moment, this is the time

There are only two things that matter now.

The first is that this team gives everything on Saturday. 90 minutes of lung bursting runs; utter dedication to the Bantam on their chest; and that we do everything we can to get three points. After that, it’s basically out of our hands and we have to hope and pray.

The second is that we remember what Mansfield Town did last year if we don’t make it. That we go into this summer bursting with pride and knowing next season can be our year. We have the manager, we have the squad, we have the backing of the fans yet again with all those season ticket renewals.

It’s time to come together for one last push. Break the record books and defy the odds. Make it into the play-offs on 69 points just like we did in 2012/13 those 11 years ago.

Let’s make this Saturday the loudest Valley Parade has been for some time. Let’s do everything we can to get behind the team. Let’s make it one to remember.

Bring on the Bantams.

Categories: Opinion

Tags: BCAFC