By Jason McKeown

In Buckinghamshire at least, the dates are already in the diary. The MK Dons know for sure that they have a play off semi final away leg scheduled in on the bank holiday of Monday 6 May, kicking off at 3pm. Where they will be going to, they do not know. Who they welcome to Stadium MK for the second leg on the Thursday evening after, is still a mystery.

The Dons can this weekend relax at home to a relegation-threatened Sutton United, and watch the play off race madness just below them unfold.

It’s shaping up to a truly momentous final day of the regular League Two season. On the excellent Not The Top 20 podcast this week, presenters Ali Maxwell and George Elek argued that the League Two play off battle is one of the most exciting stories in the EFL right now. Crewe Alexandra (one win in their last eight) and Barrow (five defeats in their last six) might disagree with that sentiment, as they grimly cling onto play off spots that for most of the season seemed certain to be theirs. But for the other four clubs, who still habour hopes of claiming one of the three play off spots that are up for grabs, this is going to be a Saturday to remember.

That there are six clubs fighting to join the MK Dons in taking part in this year’s play offs is testament to the ongoing genius of the play off system, which in League Two especially keeps disappointing seasons alive and puts so many clubs through the wringer. Cast your eye over the full League Two table, and there’s a collection of sides – all the way down to 19th placed Swindon – who at some stage of this season held realistic hopes of the play offs. Whilst most of these teams are now stuck in mid-table mediocrity, with nothing left to do but rue over the what might-have-beens, the stage is set for some unlikely top seven finishers. Not least Doncaster Rovers and, of course, Bradford City.

As recently as 6 March – just 50 days ago – City and Donny drew 1-1 at Valley Parade in a game that reeked of end of season mediocrity. The Bantams finished that night 15th in the table, with Rovers all the way down in 20th. “I’m really disappointed we’ve drawn the game,” fumed Grant McCann afterwards, after his side had recorded twice the number of shots on goal as City, but conceded a late equaliser to Tyler Smith.

McCann won’t care now. That 1-1 draw has been followed by a run of 10 (ten!) straight victories, catapulting Doncaster into the play offs and the nose-bleed territory of fifth place. They only need one more point to confirm an extension to the end of their season. And on current form, they would take some stopping in the play offs.

City’s unlikely journey towards joining them is well documented in these parts, but the Bantams’ play off push really has come from nowhere. Not long ago, playmaker stats ranked their hopes of finishing in the play offs at 0.2%. Before the Walsall game last week, it was still a huge outside shot at 2%. Two more wins later, and the Bantams are now judged to have a 22% chance of making the play offs. Starting the final round of fixtures two points off the top seven, needing to better the results of two other teams, 22% seems a fair reflection. But to go from no chance, to having little hope, to now having this slight opportunity is quite the turnaround. Mission impossible is still mission unlikely, but we’ll absolutely take that.

For City, their own job is straightforward. They have to win against Newport, pure and simple, otherwise the play offs won’t happen. A home win victory over County – bottom of the form table, having lost seven in a row, conceding 14 goals and scoring just three times – will nudge them up to 69 points.

That might be enough, if other teams slip up.

Barrow of course basically have to lose, for City to get into the top seven. They’re at home to Mansfield Town, who are already promoted, cannot win the title and have nothing to play for other than keeping Wrexham at bay so they finish second. Mansfield are on a run of four straight wins and defeated Gillingham 2-1 at home last week, when they also had little riding on the result. Their away record is the second best in League Two, having won 11 of their 22 fixtures on the road.

There’s a slight strange quirk of recent history here. Last year, Mansfield missed out of the play offs on the final day of the season – at the expense of City and Salford. The Bantams hosted champions Leyton Orient – who like Mansfield now were up and so had nothing to play for – and the 1-1 Valley Parade draw was not exactly full of high energy, as City were able to get the point they needed and deny Mansfield, who won their final game, at Colchester. A late Leyton Orient winner against City would have seen Mansfield make the play offs, but Orient weren’t especially stretching themselves to get one. In the final 20 minutes of the game, there were just two shots on goal from either side (both off target). Not stats of two teams going all out for victory.

The shoe is now on the other foot. If Nigel Clough held any grievances towards Orient’s Richie Wellens for the relatively easy ride his side gave City that day, how does he feel knowing that – this time – it’s his side who are the bit part players in another team’s final day dramas?

Clough can certainly do City a big, big favour this weekend. Whether that happens remains to be seen.

If Barrow get a point, City effectively can’t overtake them, and will miss out – but that doesn’t mean Barrow will definitely make the play offs. They start the day a single point ahead of Crawley on 68 points, so as a minimum have to match the Red Devils’ result. Barrow can finish as high as fifth with a win, but as low as tenth if they lose heavily. That more than anything else sums up the wildness of this final day shootout.

Crawley, like Barrow, do not go into the final Saturday of the season in great fettle. No wins in four. The League Two form table for the last four games has Newport 23rd, Barrow 22nd and Crawley 21st. On their side is the fact they end the campaign at home to 21st-place Grimsby, who are already safe, but who have only won two away games all season. If Mansfield are amongst the very last teams that Barrow would choose to face in such a crunch fixture, Grimsby at home is a game that Crawley won’t be too upset to face.

We don’t really talk much about Crawley round here do we? The Wagmi United adventure doesn’t quite look the basket case it was a year ago, as under Scott Lindsey they’ve shown genuine competence and recruited very intelligently. They are a flaky side for sure, prone to some wonderful days at the office and some utterly dismal performances. You never quite know what you’re going to get from them. Home form isn’t the strongest, with zero victories in the last four on their own soil, and overall the 14th best home record in the division. Crawley are not dead certs to win on Saturday, that’s for sure.

Crawley start the day on 67 points in 8th. They are, as we say, one point shy of Barrow and one ahead of City. Beat Grimsby and they would finish on 70 points, which might even be enough for fifth place. A draw might be all they need to finish in the top seven, if City don’t win and Barrow lose by two goals.

Crawley’s involvement in this conversation makes it a really interesting and dangerous situation for others. Barrow know they can’t just draw their game with Mansfield, and play out the final moments West Germany vs Austria World Cup 1982 style, as a Crawley win would take them above the Cumbrians. It also means Doncaster and Crewe have to do a bit of work to seal their spot. Both have 70 points, meaning a defeat and Crawley victory would see them overtaken and possibly dropping out the top seven, if other results don’t go their way.

It means Doncaster (who travel to Gillingham) and Crewe (who go to a Colchester United side still harbouring relegation concerns) both need to get a last day point to book their play off spot. Colchester, like Crewe, need at least a draw to achieve their objective. Avoiding a heavy defeat might be enough for Colchester, especially given Sutton (who are three points behind, with a worse goal difference) have to beat MK Dons away.

If there’s a League Two fixture this weekend where in the final 10 minutes both teams are passing it around with no attacking intent, I’d wager it’s at Colchester, where both teams would bite your hand off for a 0-0 draw right now. In fact, I offer you some preview footage of those final 10 minutes.

If Doncaster and Crewe are basically-but-not-100% there, Walsall are basically-but-not-100% out of it. Tyler Smith’s late, late goal for City at Barrow would have triggered faint cheers in Walsall, as it ensures they have a small mathematical chance.

And it is small.

The Saddlers have 65 points – three points off Barrow. They have a goal difference of zero to Barrow’s +6. They’re at AFC Wimbledon, have to win by a few goals, and hope that Barrow lose by a few goals. Even if they complete this six-goal swing, Walsall also need City to fail to win and Crawley to lose, or Crawley to only draw and for Walsall to have beaten Wimbledon by four goals.

Basically, they need an incredibly turn of events. An awful lot of stars to align for them. A considerable dollop of luck. Realistically, blowing a 2-0 lead at home to City last Saturday has done them. The recent 2-1 loss at Doncaster was especially damaging to their chances. They’re actually the last team to beat Doncaster, having bettered them 3-1 at home in early March. At the time, it was a fifth win on the spin for Walsall, lifting them up to sixth. But since then, it’s three wins in 10. All but consigning them to another year in League Two.

So that’s the crazy and utterly unpredictable picture for the League Two play off race. Six of the final 12 divisional fixtures have something top seven-related riding on them.

To recap: City have to win, they need Crawley to fail to defeat Grimsby, and they need Mansfield to beat Barrow (or Barrow to draw, and City to thrash Newport 7-0, Bristol Rovers style). Charge up your phones for Saturday. And for once let’s hope we can actually get a reliable signal on a Valley Parade matchday. Latest scores are going to be huge.

If you need a visual to print out and bring along, WOAP’s Alex Scott has put this helpful flow chart together. Enjoy!

If they somehow succeed, it will be Bradford City filling up that diary slot in the MK Dons’ schedule. Valley Parade will welcome Mike Williamson’s charges on Monday 6 May, with a trip to Milton Keynes on the Thursday evening. There would be plenty of sub plots to such a fixture to enjoy. Graham Alexander facing the club who sacked him last October. Dan Kemp up against the manager who didn’t rate and loaned him out to Swindon, giving him sufficient motivation to go on and score 19 goals for the Robins and MK Dons over this campaign. Williamson, the guy City wouldn’t consider when they had the Mark Hughes vacancy to fill. And two regular league fixtures that ended 4-1 to MK Dons and 4-0 to City.

Lots of fun ahead perhaps, but still lots of drama to play out first. In a play off race full of twists and turns, the final regular season act is unlikely to be a quiet one. The odds are against Bradford City, but just to be in the mix, after looking completely out of it, underlines the unpredictable nature of League Two football.

Don’t bet on them, but don’t bet against them either.  

Categories: Match Reviews

Tags: BCAFC