Six straight away defeats – with the only goal scored an own goal gifted by the opposition – is relegation form. But fortunately for Bradford City, what is even more like relegation form are the dreadful runs Barnet (one win in 16), Macclesfield (no wins in 21) and Hereford (one win in 16) have endured during the past few months.

To get a true reflection of how the relegation picture has panned out, it’s worth looking at how the bottom seven clubs stood two months ago. Just before City went to Torquay and won, in mid-February they had gone five games without a win to sit in 20^th, while Dagenham and Northampton propped up the rest.

As at 14 February 2012

                                       P            Pts   Points a game 

18  Barnet                  28        33              1.17

19  Macclesfield       29        30             1.03

20  City                        28        28               1

21  Hereford              30         27            0.9

22  Plymouth            30         24            0.8

23  Dagenham          29         24            0.83

24  Northampton    29         24            0.83

Looking at these seven clubs only, here is how form has ranked over the past two months, following the Easter Monday matches.

                                      P            Pts         Points a game

   Dagenham             13         21                 1.62  (Currently 19^th)

  Northampton        13         21                 1.62   (18^th)

  Plymouth                13         20                1.54  (20^th)

  City                           14          15                1.07   (21^st)

  Hereford                12          9                 0.75   (24^th)

  Macclesfield          13         6                 0.46   (23^rd)

  Barnet                     14         6                 0.43   (22^nd)

The turnaround experienced by Dagenham, Northampton and Plymouth is extraordinary, play off form in fact. Equally noteworthy – though less of a surprise – is how badly Hereford, Macclesfield and Barnet have performed over this period. Hereford’s average points a game fall from 0.9 to 0.75 shows they aren’t playing too much worse than they were, but the outstanding form of the three teams below them two months ago has now left them in huge trouble. Meanwhile, Barnet and Macclesfield have nosedived, picking up around half the average points a game they had been up until mid-February.

It seems highly likely that two from Hereford, Macclesfield and Barnet will be the relegated teams this season.

What to make of City’s form? Over the last two months, the average points per game has slightly increased from 1 to 1.07 – but that is hardly significant. Instead it is obvious that the Bantams have continued to bob along relatively slowly while, above and below them, everyone but Hereford has swapped sides. If City maintain this ratio over the final four games (meaning one win, one draw and two defeats), we will have trundled to a safety total of 47 points from 46 games.

That is the story of City’s season. Tredding water, with the head remaining just above the sticky stuff throughout. Not enough of an improvement over the course of the campaign to pull clear of danger (at the half way point – 23 matches – we had 25 points to show for the first half of the season, an average of 1.09 points per game) but good enough to remain out of the bottom two.

The collapse of Barnet, Macclesfield and Hereford – coupled with City’s less than inspiring away form – has prompted some fans to argue that the Bantams will be lucky if they stay up. But I’m a great believer that you deserve to finish where you finish after 46 matches and – as disappointing as this season has undoubtedly been – it looks as though there will be at least three teams who proved to be worse than us. If they can’t lift themselves out of this nosedive (and the outcome of Friday’s match between Hereford and Barnet could prove a springboard for the winners) they surely deserve to go down.

That said, the outstanding form of Plymouth, Dagenham and Northampton do prompt some questions at Phil Parkinson and his players, which are increasingly going to be vocalised as the season comes to an end. At the turn of the year City had won three straight games, and there was genuine optimism we could climb to the promised land of mid-table mediocrity between then and now. But on three or four occasions since, the opportunity to kick on and build upon good results was not taken, and we have struggled on with our 1 – 1.07 points per game average.

Is that a reflection of the ability of the squad? Is it down to the manager? Not once in 2011/12 have City fallen into the bottom two, so – whatever improvement there has been over the season – it has not been reflected in the league table (the highest position all campaign remains 18^th).  The painful turnaround of Peter Jackson’s team to Phil Parkinson’s – 42 different players used this season – has undoubtedly proved disruptive, and the lack of improvement leaves a big question over whether the change of direction is going to eventually provide the club with the lift off it needs.

A few months back, there was talk of a strong promotion push next season. Having a break from City and the relaxation of pre-season will undoubtedly lift everyone’s optimism come July, but right now it is very difficult to seriously believe we can climb out of League Two next season.

Guy Branston has stated that staying up this season is not something to celebrate. He is spot on, but – assuming we do stay up – at the same time the club faces a huge crossroads this summer in how we actually move forwards. We need to work out a way of tilting our heads upwards and allowing the expectation levels to start rising again – based on results on the field, not the usual talk off it – otherwise we could start to become far too used to this tredding water business.

Categories: Opinion

Tags: Guy Branston, League Two, Phil Parkinson