Written by Jason McKeown (images John Dewhirst)

And I guess that’s why they call it the (January) blues. After such a wonderful first half to Bradford City’s season, the opening month of 2026 was full of challenge, heartache and transfer disruption.

Multiple defeats, farewells to popular promotion heroes, and some apparent difficulties in upgrading the squad combined to cause some Bantam January Blues. It certainly hasn’t all been bad, but it was bumpy. And though we don’t know what it will ultimately mean for City’s 2025/26 destiny, January may well be looked back on as season-defining.

It’s worth reminding ourselves of the outlook for City as we rang in the New Year. The Bantams sat third in League One on 43 points, having lost only three times all season and having just chalked up five league wins in six matches. They were one point behind second-placed Lincoln with a game in hand, while leaders Cardiff were only four points ahead.

Now the complexion is very different. City’s points total has only marginally increased to 49, having won two and lost four of their January fixtures. They’ve slipped to fifth. The gap to Lincoln has stretched to nine points (still with a game in hand), while Cardiff are now 11 clear. Automatic promotion hopes are not dead, but expectations have undeniably shifted.

Meanwhile, eight players have departed and seven new faces have arrived. It’s been an exhausting month of rumours, and it seems clear that not everything went to plan recruitment-wise. So how do we make sense of such a tricky period, and what does it tell us about the rest of the season?

The floor was too low – so Alexander made tough choices

New Year’s Day brought the first of the January’s below-par performances. A chastening 3-0 defeat away at Mansfield. Beyond the scoreline, the deeper significance lay in what the match said about the strength – or lack of depth – in City’s squad.

At the turn of the year last season, Graham Alexander implemented a highly effective rotation policy that helped propel the Bantams up the table. For the most part of this season, however, he’s largely moved from rotation. But with the festive fixtures piling up, at Mansfield he brought in some of his squad players – and it didn’t go well.

That game proved to be the final appearance in City colours for Neill Byrne and Brad Halliday. It also felt like another nail in the coffin for Calum Kavanagh’s Bantams career. Meanwhile, Alex Pattison, Andy Cook, Lewis Richards and Tommy Leigh were not even considered for the bench – a recurring theme. As City licked their wounds, the Mansfield defeat perhaps provided the clearest illustration yet that the squad needed improving.

Rotation only works when the gap between your strongest players (the ceiling) and your weakest (the floor) is relatively small. Mansfield exposed a growing chasm. This was not really the fault of any individual squad player; rather, it reflected how City’s remarkable progress in the first half of the season had raised standards beyond many of them. This was no longer a side hoping to avoid the bottom half of League One, as many expected last summer. It was a team with credible Championship ambitions – and one that required greater depth to sustain them.

So exits that had already begun to feel inevitable were likely sealed. As fans, it hasn’t been easy to see Cook, Pattison and Halliday leave. They are loved for what they gave to the club, and they can hardly be accused of failing. They were simply overtaken by a rising bar.

Others have departed without the same affection but still deserve recognition for their contribution. This time last year, Lewis Richards was a leading contender for City’s player of the season. Injury – and then another setback on his comeback – curtailed his 2024/25 campaign. Although Richards was offered a new deal in the summer, something clearly wasn’t quite right between player and manager, and he has now moved to Crawley. If he can rediscover form and fitness, he could yet become one of the best wing backs in League Two.

Later this month, Richards may well line up against Kavanagh when Crawley visit Oldham. Kavanagh joins the Latics after two seasons that promised much at Valley Parade. His effort was never in doubt, even if he sometimes lacked technical sharpness.

After Cook’s ACL injury last year, Kavanagh stepped into the role of central forward and largely performed admirably. He was not always heavily involved in build-up play, but his off-the-ball running and relentless pressing brought real value. Injured at the start of this season, he has ultimately found himself behind Stephen Humphrys, Will Swan and now Paul Mullin in the pecking order. Oldham feels like a good move for him, and one in which he should thrive.

Tommy Leigh could make his Bristol Rovers debut on Tuesday alongside a former promotion-winning team-mate, Richie Smallwood, and against another Bantams midfielder who departed this January – Walsall’s Alex Pattison. Leigh has joined to the Gas on loan for the rest of the season. He remains contracted at Valley Parade until 2027 so we may not have seen the last of him in claret and amber.

It’s a curious fall from grace. Reinvented as a defensive midfielder, Leigh began the season as a regular and started nine of City’s first 11 league games of the season. Then he lost his place, making the starting line up on just two other occasions – the defeats to Burton and Lincoln where both times he was hauled off. Ultimately, the rise and rise of Jenson Metcalfe has left Leigh languishing on the sidelines.

Just one week ago Leigh was starting for the Bantams as part of a League One promotion battle. He swaps that for a League Two relegation dogfight at Bristol Rovers. It will be very interesting to see how he gets on under Steve Evans – and if there is any way back for him at City next season.

Remaining in League One is Byrne, who has joined Doncaster on loan for the rest of the season. He is a good example of a player suitable for a bottom-half League One side but not beyond that – making him a victim of City’s rising standards. He may not go down as a Bantams great, but he rarely let the team down. Useful, until he wasn’t.

All of this leaves just seven members of the 2024/25 promotion-winning squad still at the club. The pace of change has been remarkable. Players who might reasonably have expected to feature prominently this season have instead been moved on. City’s high ceiling forced a reassessment of expectations, and tough decisions were made to keep pace with the rising tide.

Unfortunately, that tide has shown signs of receding.

January results suggest City were overachieving

If the Mansfield humbling can be partially explained by mitigating factors, the same is harder to argue of January’s other three defeats.

In the space of 10 days, City faced league leaders Cardiff, sixth-placed Huddersfield and second-placed Lincoln – and lost all three. Over 270 minutes they scored once, conceded six, and registered just four shots on target. In successive games, they set new records for lowest xGs.

It was without question a tough run of games – and the opponents lived up to their billings. Cardiff were superb in the first half and defended excellently in the second. Huddersfield, rejuvenated by a change of manager, delivered a season-best performance that befitted their considerable resources. Lincoln’s demolition of the Bantams was also their high watermark performance of the season so far.

While the manner of the defeats to Huddersfield and Lincoln was worrying, losing all three matches was not unreasonable in isolation. But collectively, they amounted to a stark reality check.

For how good City have been, here was another level – one which, for now, appears out of reach. With Bolton and Stockport also overtaking the Bantams, the credible top two hopes of the start of January now seem extremely optimistic.

The good news is that City still hold a seven-point cushion inside the play-offs, and many of their toughest fixtures are now behind them. It is still a fabulous position, just not as wonderful as the one they began January in.

Window offers some evidence of City’s place in food chain

After the Huddersfield defeat, an angry Alexander spoke sarcastically about “robbing a bank” to find the £5 million he felt might be needed to revamp the squad. He also asked rhetorically, “Have you seen how much League Two strikers are going for?”

We don’t know exactly who he had in mind, but credible reports suggested City were close to signing Fleetwood forward Ryan Graydon, only to be beaten by Salford’s higher wage offer. A host of other names were linked with the Bantams throughout the month – some fanciful, others more plausible. It’s reasonable to assume City entered the window with a clear list of targets but failed to secure all their first choices.

The transfer window always attracts fierce supporter debates over ambition. Last summer, Stefan Rupp told BBC Radio Leeds, “I definitely have the money to take the club to the Championship”. And in November Ryan Sparks said to the BBC that financial fair play rules would not restrict Rupp from spending whatever he’d like.

Have City lived up to those words? Possibly not. But perhaps, given the emerging evidence of the gap to the league’s elite, restraint was the wiser option. Spending heavily may signal ambition, but spending wisely is what sustains progress.

Let’s go back to Graydon. If Salford did indeed gazump City, it may be because the Bantams had set a ceiling on what they were prepared to pay for a forward with a limited scoring record at this level. Overpaying for players isn’t clever ambition – Sunderland’s ill-fated pursuit of Will Grigg remains a cautionary tale in knowing when to walk away [i].

After being linked with several strikers, and amid reports of rejected bids, it is probably fair to suggest that Lee Evans, Paul Mullin and Kayden Jackson were not first-choice targets (or at least with Jackson, he may not have been on the radar initially, given he was regularly in the Derby 18-man squad until the start of January).

The fact City got some but not all of the targets they wanted may reflect a fiercer-than-expected market, and the reality that some of City’s rivals simply operate on a different financial scale. This weekend City face Luton and their new signing Devante Cole, amid suggestions of Bantams interest in a reunion. Yet despite Bradford sitting above Luton in the table, the Hatters remain leagues apart financially. Other side like Stockport, Huddersfield, Bolton and even Doncaster have made eye-catching signings.

Alternatively, City may simply be thinking longer-term. With automatic promotion probabilities falling, holding funds back for the summer – rather than gambling now and facing a potential financial hangover – may prove prudent.

There are reasons to stay optimistic

January certainly didn’t go completely wrong on the field. There was a very enjoyable victory over Blackpool, and the month ended with a hard-fought success over Doncaster.

Naturally, the jury is out on the new signings and whether they raise either the floor or the ceiling. But we’ve seen promising glimpses of what Harrison Ashby, Joe White, Louis Sibley, Jackson and Mullin can offer. Ethan Wheatley – finally in the building – clearly offers potential. Lee Evans was a much-loved loanee exactly 10 years ago and has gone onto have a very good career. It could prove a very clever signing.

Recruitment may not have been perfect, but the club avoided entering the dreaded Guthrie Zone.

The ground has undeniably shifted beneath City. January strongly suggests they are not, in fact, top-two material. But they remain firmly in the top-six conversation. With new faces bedding in and a kinder run of fixtures ahead, there is certainly no reason to write the season off.

The Bantams are just one point short of the 50-point mark that all but guarantees League One survival. While recent results have been uneven, their overall body of work remains deeply impressive. This season has already exceeded expectations, and whatever unfolds between now and May should be enjoyed.

In summary, City entered 2026 believing they could challenge for automatic promotion. Squad decisions were made to match that ambition. Subsequent results have suggested those sights may need lowering slightly – a reality perhaps reflected in the recruitment that was achieved. It may not scream top-two intent, but a fast-evolving City squad emerge from the window looking capable of sustaining a play-off push.

January delivered its share of reality checks. Yet the broader landscape remains one of genuine promise – especially now that the January blues can finally be shaken off.

[i] See Season 2 Episode 4 of Sunderland Til I Die – the foolhardy pursuit of Will Grigg and The smell of want.

Categories: Opinion

Tags: BCAFC