The true league cost of the cup heroics

By Width of a Post on March 15, 2013

By Jason McKeown

There were five minutes to go when substitute Alan Connell volleyed the ball home from the edge of the area to give Bradford City a priceless advantage over 10-men Torquay United. As the players saw the game out, chants of “bring on the Arsenal” echoed around Valley Parade, in recognition of the fact the Gunners were due up North in three days time for what would prove to be an incredible night.

At 5pm on that December afternoon, Bradford City sat fourth in the league with 21 matches played. Three points off third-placed Cheltenham, it seemed as though an automatic promotion push was very much on. Here is how the full League Two table looked.

League Two, 5pm 8 December 2012

1	Gillingham	21	13	5	3	39	18	44
2	Port Vale	21	11	6	4	44	23	39
3	Cheltenham	21	11	5	5	30	27	38
4	Bradford City	21	10	5	6	31	22	35
5	Rotherham	21	10	4	7	34	31	34
6	Southend	21	9	6	6	33	21	33
7	Exeter	21	10	3	8	32	31	33
8	Fleetwood Town	21	8	8	5	28	20	32
9	Burton Albion	21	9	5	7	29	28	32
10	Chesterfield	21	8	7	6	28	23	31
11	Torquay	21	8	7	6	28	25	31
12	Rochdale	21	8	6	7	32	32	30
13	Northampton	21	8	5	8	34	30	29
14	Dagenham	21	7	7	7	33	29	28
15	York	21	6	9	6	26	30	27
16	Morecambe	21	7	5	9	28	30	26
17	Accrington	21	7	5	9	26	32	26
18	Oxford	21	7	4	10	30	36	25
19	Wycombe	21	5	6	10	25	32	23
20	Plymouth	21	5	6	10	25	30	21
21	Wimbledon	21	5	4	12	24	40	19
22	Aldershot	21	4	6	11	16	32	18
23	Bristol Rovers	21	4	6	11	23	40	18
24	Barnet	21	3	7	11	19	35	16

What happened next will be debated about not just for the rest of this season, but for many years to come. How did the club lose form so badly in the league, so that at this moment in time – the middle of March, with 10 games to go – we are left with only distant play off hopes? Were the cup heroics that saw City beat Arsenal, Villa and then go to Wembley to play Swansea really a distraction, or is it just an excuse?

In-between City defeating Arsenal and collecting losers’ medals at Wembley, 13 rounds of League Two fixtures took place. The form of the Bantams tailed off badly over this time, with just two wins and three draws from the 12 games that were completed. Here’s how this form compares to the rest of the division during this period.

League Two, 9 December 2012 to 25 February 2013

1	Northampton	13	8	2	3	20	15	26
2	Port Vale	12	7	3	2	21	10	24
3	Burton	13	7	3	3	23	15	24
4	Gillingham	12	6	3	3	13	6	21
5	Rotherham	11	7	0	4	18	14	21
6	Bristol Rovers	12	6	3	3	19	15	21
7	Morecambe	13	5	5	3	15	13	20
8	Exeter	12	5	4	3	18	13	19
9	Aldershot	13	5	4	4	16	13	19
10	Wycombe	12	6	1	5	14	14	19
11	Barnet	12	5	3	4	13	10	18
12	Oxford	12	5	3	4	13	12	18
13	Fleetwood	12	5	3	4	14	17	18
14	Southend	12	5	2	5	15	14	17
15	Cheltenham	13	3	7	3	15	11	16
16	Wimbledon	12	4	4	4	13	18	16
17	Dagenham	13	4	1	8	12	18	13
18	Chesterfield	12	3	3	6	12	12	12
19	Rochdale	12	3	3	6	17	19	12
20	York	13	2	6	5	12	18	12
21	Plymouth	12	2	5	5	8	14	11
22	Bradford City	10	2	3	5	13	16	9
23	Accrington	12	1	4	7	7	21	7
24	Torquay	12	1	3	8	9	17	6

So incredibly, City’s form went from amongst the best in the division to third worst. Relegation standard results, you might argue, as teams like Northampton, Burton Albion, Morecambe and Exeter flew past us in the real league table.

Take away this dreadful period of form , and the results of our rivals during the same period (so we’re just including League Two results before we played Arsenal and since we played Swansea), and the following table shows where we would lie.

League Two, up to 9 December 2012 and since 25 February 2013:

1	Gillingham	25	14	7	4	42	29	49
2	Cheltenham Town	25	13	6	6	35	35	45
3	Bradford City	26	11	9	6	35	24	42
4	Burton Albion	25	12	5	8	47	35	41
5	Exeter City	26	12	5	9	37	33	41
6	Port Vale	26	11	7	8	46	31	40
7	Rotherham United	26	11	7	8	43	37	40
8	Chesterfield	25	10	8	7	31	24	38
9	Fleetwood Town	25	9	10	6	32	22	37
10	Southend United	25	10	7	8	37	28	37
11	Oxford United	26	11	4	11	37	42	37
12	Northampton Town	25	10	6	9	38	34	36
13	Rochdale	25	9	7	9	37	39	34
14	Torquay United	25	8	9	8	34	28	33
15	Dagenham & Redbridge	25	8	9	8	38	34	33
16	Accrington	25	8	6	11	29	37	31
17	Morecambe	25	8	6	11	35	38	30
18	Wycombe Wanderers	25	8	6	11	31	39	30
19	York City	25	6	11	8	29	36	29
20	Bristol Rovers	26	7	6	13	30	43	27
21	Plymouth Argyle	25	6	8	11	29	34	26
22	AFC Wimbledon	25	7	5	13	32	44	26
23	Barnet	25	5	7	13	26	39	22
24	Aldershot Town	25	4	9	12	19	36	21

Of course there would still be a huge amount of the season to go, and it is unfair and distorted, to an extent, to compare other League Two teams who have hit or lost their own form at different times. But the stats suggest that, without the cup run, our pre-Arsenal and post-Swansea form would now see us in third position.

There is no particular point to this article. I’m not suggesting City would have earned automatic promotion this season had we bowed out to Arsenal, but what it does illustrate is the scale of the negative impact remaining in the cup had on our League form. It is not an excuse, it is a fact that the fun in the cup hindered our promotion push.

I wouldn’t change it for the world, and I doubt you would either. But there it is folks, the true damage in black and white. It’s a good job that we gained so much from being focused elsewhere.