By Jason McKeown

In a semi final tie that everyone predicted would be low-scoring, it’s perhaps to be expected that Jamie Walker’s first half goal on Sunday carried a scarcity value. One that prompted some unbalanced and illogical behaviour from Bradford City.

Scarcity is all about the psychology of human beings when we have hold of an object, or commodity, that is limited in supply, and are worried about the implications of losing it. It can lead to us making poor judgements, or being over cautious – to our own detriment.

An example of scarcity is using a credit card to pay an unexpected bill when you have savings to cover it. You’re too worried about losing that savings pot for those just-in-case moments, and so don’t use it when a just-in-case moment actually arrives. Instead, in this situation, you wrack up higher interest repayments and debt. Last winter, I was so worried about our high energy bills I wanted us to eat out more often, rather than use our oven/keep the heating on, even though eating out would have clearly proven more expensive over the long-run. I was stupid to think this way, but scarcity was fogging up my brain.

Watching back Bradford City’s play off semi final first leg with Carlisle, this time through the lens of Sky Sports’ excellent coverage, it strikes me that scarcity impacted both teams’ decision-making – leaving the Bantams struggling to hold onto the precious value of Walker’s goal.

City initially set themselves up effectively. Watching back those first 25 minutes, they played better than I remembered on the night. The middle three of Richie Smallwood, Alex Gilliead and Adam Clayton pressed effectively, which helped to position the whole team higher up the pitch. When City had the ball, they went forward and supported attacks.

What City did well at first

In the 14th minute, the score 0-0, there was a really good illustration of the City high press. Carlisle had just won possession off Banks just outside their box, and worked it back across their defence to try and engineer space to attack. Smallwood, Clayton and Gilliead can be seen inside the Carlisle half, waiting for United to pass the ball forward so they can engage and win the turnover. Smallwood duly does this, and the visitors were again on the backfoot.

City kept doing this very effectively. Carlisle struggled to get out, and had only 35% possession at this point in the game. They attempted 46 passes, but completed just 18 of them (39%). City just didn’t let them settle. “They’ve been more combative, they’re more aggressive,” stated Sky Sports pundit Courtney Sweetman-Kirk at half time, on the Bantams’ early dominance. “We are expecting this possession based-style, but I like the way they’ve mixed it up.”

Evidence of this effective high press can be seen in City’s goal in the 18th minute. Harry Lewis takes a free kick and Corey Whelen just gets above Jamie Walker. The former Liverpool defender’s header away is decent, but Gilliead is pressing well and wins the loose ball. He nods it up towards Andy Cook, who this time beats his man. The flick on finds Scott Banks, who gets ahead of Jack Armer to nudge the ball into the path of Walker to score.

Cook, Banks and Walker doing really well for this goal, but Gilliead’s role is absolutely vital. If he isn’t positioned so high up the park to win the second ball, City don’t get the chance.

And so City are in front. They’ve scored a goal. In a game where there won’t be many.

And this is when it all began to turn.

What changed about City’s approach

The weird thing about the contest is that Carlisle clearly went into it fearing they would concede – and yet when City scored, that apprehension was passed over to the home side. Just listen to the words of Paul Simpson on his players, “I thought they were nervous up until the goal – the goal seemed to settle us. After that I thought we were outstanding.”

It’s true. Sometimes, when the thing you fear the most happens, the fog of anxiety lifts and you just get on with dealing with the situation you were scared would arise. That’s what Carlisle did, and gradually City began to feel the weight of scarcity. They would ultimately lose sight of what they’d done so well early doors. The qualities which had got them in front.

There’s a moment 52 minutes in, where Carlisle have possession at the back. Every single Bradford City player is not just behind the ball, but stood inside their own half. There’s still at least 38 minutes to play, and yet they’re adopting an over-defensive shape like it’s the last 10 minutes. This is largely caused by Smallwood, Gilliead and Clayton retreating 15 yards or so in how they are positioned off the ball, and so inadvertently causing the whole team to push back. The defence is sat too deep.

No one was pressing Carlisle anymore, and as the minutes tick by the visitors began to have more and more of the play. Between the 46th and 75th minute, possession is still 55% in favour of City. For those final 15, plus four minutes stoppage time, that drops to 37%. Of course, you’d expect Carlisle, a team trailing narrowly, to have more possession in the closing stages, but City’s retreat – and lack of press – invited some intense United pressure.

It’s also what little they did with the ball when they actually had it. In minute 75, Smallwood is in possession and level with City’s own box. There is only Cook positioned inside the Carlisle half, and even then he’s basically on the half way line. Everyone is so fearful, they are bunched together nearby, with no one showing for a short pass. It all presents Smallwood with little option but to angle the ball down the line and ask Emmanuel Osadebe to run after it, whilst trying to win a throw in or a corner. The City sub fails to keep possession and Carlisle come again.

Osadebe has had a bit of criticism from some fans for his performance. But he really wasn’t used in a way that allowed him to be anything more than a willing chaser of hopeful punts outwide, and was expected to hold onto the ball with barely a team mate to support.

It was a thankless task, and City’s players needed to be much smarter in keeping the ball. “The only [disappointing] thing from my point of view in terms of how we played was our first pass – when we did win it, we needed to be a little bit more accurate,” reflected Mark Hughes. “At times, the ball’s changing possession, so if we can get the first pass after the transition I think that will help us.”

They nearly paid the price. Minute 88. Carlisle’s Owen Moxon has the ball just inside the City half. No one goes to close him down. He has time to pick his pass, sending the ball low to Taylor Charters, who turns and plays in Kristian Dennis behind Matty Platt. Dennis takes the ball around Lewis, but from a tight angle can’t find the target. A let off, but one of the clearest examples all night of the dangers of City’s scarcity mindset.

That Walker goal was a great moment, but it was akin to giving City a Ming vase and asking them to carry it over a lake covered by a thin sheet of ice. They became too cautious, too edgy, too worried about losing what they had gained – and their fear almost cost them.

They’ve got to be more brave and intelligent in the second leg. They cannot sit back and invite so much pressure. They won’t be able to survive 90 minutes of Moxon deliveries, unless they engage higher up the park and push on themselves. Looking ahead to the second leg, Sky Sports pundit Jamie Mackie predicted, “The way Carlisle finished the game, I do think they’re going to score.” It’s a fair assumption.

City have got half way across the lake and, despite a few cracks in the ice, the vase they are carrying remains in one piece. But they’ve got to stop worrying so much about losing what they have, and remember the qualities that earned them the prize they’re now desperately clinging onto.

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