Part five – the outlook

By Frankie Williams

My beloved Bradford City have, recently, represented somewhat of a contradiction.

We’ve signed our much loved, thirty-plus goal striker to a contract extension, brought in the league’s highest scoring midfielder, and look to have improved upon a squad which deservedly found themselves near the top of the pack last year. We have a goalkeeper with incredible talent for our division and bags of personality to boot, and have retained the core of a backline that is, on paper, one of the most difficult to break down in the league (the only three teams to concede less than the Bantams were promoted automatically).

Yet the mood, at least amongst certain sections of our fanbase, is dour. There seems to be an active desire to be proven right, for us to crawl to a midtable finish and have Hughes walk with his head slumped by January. After a City side very much focused on fitness over performance jogged in to a 1-0 defeat against Rochdale to round off their pre-season, the predominant opinion on social media was that were doomed to yet another “long season”. These comments hardly feel fair, but the sentiment is certainly understandable.

Since City unceremoniously fell out of the Premier League with an at the time record low point total of 26, the following twenty-two seasons have had little to celebrate. It could be argued, quite fairly, that in that time only a handful seasons could actively be labelled as a success.

Between 2012 and 2017, it felt good to be a Bradfordian. Magical, miraculous night’s at Valley Parade watching our team claim Premier League scalps will be forever burnt into the memories of every fan in attendance. Promotion at Wembley, an unthinkable victory at Stamford Bridge, a core group of players who seemed genuinely passionate about Bradford City. And then, quite suddenly, it collapsed.

When the duo of Rupp and Rahic purchase the club, few could have predicted the downturn that would follow. At least initially, however, all seemed well. Parkinson walked, unimpressed with Rahic’s interfering hand, and McCall took up the mantle. A determined City side scratched and clawed our way to another big day a Wembley. The reward a long-awaited return to Championship football, the excitement of those in claret and amber was palpable. The team fought hard, kept the game close. And then, in the 85th minute of the 2017 play off final, Steve Morrison broke the hearts of over thirty thousand city fans and began a slide for the Bantams that our fans were powerless to stop.

Rahic relieved McCall from his duties at the earliest opportunity, and promoted Michael Collins to be his puppet. The City faithful need no reminding of the agony to come. The unequivocal worst City team in recent memory fell out of League One with little more than a whimper. The pride and passion our players felt when pulling on our famous claret and amber had disappeared, and the results were clear for all to see.

For five years City went through a rotation of managers, none of whom seemed capable of stopping the rot. Respectable names in lower league management, most notably Gary Bowyer and Derek Adams, could do little to turn our fortunes around. Homegrown talent in Mark Trueman and Conor Sellars offered some encouraging results in a season where the damage had already been done and were, perhaps unfairly, not offered an extension.

Prior to Hughes joining, only two permanent managers since our fall from the Premier League were about to secure a win rate over 40%, McCall in his second reign and, quite surprisingly, Peter Taylor. In the past twenty seasons our permanent managers win record has averaged out at a little over 28%, a depressing average of less than one win for every three games played.

If we consider McCall’s statistic over all three reigns, rather than each individually, Mark Hughes has the best win rate of any permanent City manager since Terry Dolan left in January of 1989! Paul Jewell and Phil Parkinson, managers of legendary status to the Bradford City faithful, held a record of 39% and 37%. Hughes, by contrast, currently sits at 41%.

So, the best managerial win rate of the modern era, both the league’s highest scoring striker and midfielder from last season signed up, and the best defensive record in the league not to secure promotion…surely we should be favourites for the title, right?

Well, not according to the bookies, or indeed to any major pundits. They are, by and large, backing the new boys of Wrexham and Notts County. The financial power of last year’s National League winner and runner-up isn’t in question, but one does doubt that they’ll both offer instant successes.

The rise in Wrexham’s fame and international popularity are no doubt brilliant for the clubs finances, but the amount of off-field noise could prove an immense distraction if results start to slip. The admiration of Sky Sports and the regular cameras that come with it are brilliant when things are going well, but if things start to go awry the extra-attention could very much prove to be a double-edged sword. After all, as the fans in attendance of the wonderful ‘When History Was Made’ premier can attest,

Parkinson seems able to create the best reactions in his players when they’re the underdog. There was no question last season that these two teams were head and shoulders above their competition in non-league, but will the step-up in quality be as easy as the pundits predict? I do expect one will very much in and about it this season while I suspect the other will not live up to expectations. Which way round this will be I cannot predict, but I would be incredibly shocked to see these teams instantly replicate their non-league success.

When fifteen of the last twenty years have resulted in disappointment, it’s not hard to see why so many City fans find it hard to get too excited. The ongoing ownership situation is also less than ideal. While Rupp has undoubtedly proved himself to be far more sensible and, for lack of a better word, decent than his former business partner, the scars left by Rahic’s unhinged reign will take a while to fade yet. We should, however, hold some real gratitude towards Rupp for his handling of the Wagmi United take-over bid.

Making a public announcement of their intentions which caused both excitement and trepidation in equal measures among the City fanbase, Rupp quickly responded by stating that he didn’t trust their vision. A little over eighteen months on the NFT bubble has well and truly burst, some ‘Tokens’ which had previously been valued in the hundreds of thousands dropping to the low four figures. This has left Crawley in an abysmal position, the team that last season only narrowly avoided the drop has been disbanded and replaced with a significant dearth of Football League level talent. The vast, vast majority of their signings have come from non-league with several earning their first full-time professional contract.

Had Rupp sold the club, we would likely be faced with a very similar situation. Despite memories of the infamous post-game fight between the two clubs that resulted in several players receiving extended bans, one can’t help but sympathise with a Crawley fanbase who have very real fears of losing their club.

Another fear, and a concern that has frequently been flagged by pundits, is that our squad has been over-reliant on key players. Without Cook’s goals and some of Lewis’ incredibly saves, there’s no doubt we would have struggled last season. Our issue, as far as I could see it, was in our midfield. A lack of goals as well as noticeably tiring legs as the games wore on, the middle of the park seemed to be our weak point.

The signing of McDonald and Pattison seem promising, but only time will tell if they’re the key to addressing our issues from last season. Smith also offers the potential to provide more goals upfront. On paper, at least, it appears our gaps are filled. There has been some trepidation around the pre-season performances of Ash Taylor, but a strong track record at Walsall, Northampton and in Scotland suggests a talented player is in there.

Last season, of the teams who occupied the top seven on October 22nd all but one finished in the playoffs. Consistency, as we saw last year, is key. The fact that we’ve kept the core of our squad suggests that we will be able to make a quick start, that we won’t have a long period of adjustment for the team to gel.

As we edge closer to the start of the season I am, for once, genuinely excited at the prospect of what’s to come. Hughes has won my confidence, and hopefully this season he’ll provide the results to win over the sections of the fanbase who are still unconvinced. The stats suggest that he’s in an excellent position to do so.

Categories: Season Preview

Tags: BCAFC