By Jason McKeown

One of my favourite episodes of the cult 90s comedy, Father Ted, is called Speed 3. It parodies the Hollywood blockbuster film that starred Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock, with Father Dougal stuck driving a milk float around Craggy Island, where if his speed drops below 4mph, a bomb will go off.

As Ted tries to save Dougal, he calls up two of his priest friends for help, and they line up on a trailer next to the milk float. You think they’re doing to find a way to rescue Dougal, but no. Instead, they start to perform Mass – complete with ceremonial table and candles.

Realising that calls for divine intervention might not be enough, they get Dougal to circle a mini roundabout, and race back to Ted’s house to think up a more practical plan to save the day.

We see a scene designed to show that lots of time is passing. Tense music plays, as they each debate and plot a plan on a blackboard. Finally, we get to close up shot of Ted, ready to reveal their carefully considered solution.

Father Ted: “That’s the idea?”

Father Beeching: “It’s the best we’ve had.”

Father Ted: “Another Mass – that’s our best idea?”

***

At Bradford City right now, we’re in a bind. There might not be any armed milk floats to defuse, but the season is not going to plan, leading to growing frustration from an expectant crowd. Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Harrogate Town saw things become toxic, with vocal displays of anger during the second half especially. City stand a lowly 17th in a league table beginning to take shape, with only two wins from their first eight matches. Just six league goals. Only two clean sheets.

It’s all leading to growing talk and disquiet about Mark Hughes. For this first time in his Valley Parade managerial tenure, Hughes is under pressure – with a rising number of supporters wanting him out. Unhappiness abounds. And it points towards a growing likelihood of trying a solution akin to Father Ted performing another mass to rescue Dougal.

Another managerial change – that’s our best idea?

“I thought the other one went very well”

It’s all depressingly familiar to be talking about sacking a Bradford City manager. Since February 2018, and the monumentally foolish decision to dismiss Stuart McCall when the Bantams stood in League One’s play off places, swapping managers has become a regular occurrence. An approach that just hasn’t worked.

You don’t need a history lesson, but let’s quickly remind ourselves. Simon Grayson, 14 games in charge. Michael Collins, 7. David Hopkin chalked up 35 games. Gary Bowyer, 48. McCall returned again and got 28 matches. Mark Trueman and Conor Sellars, 31. Derek Adams held the reins for 37.

Each appointment promised fresh hope of reversing the club’s early 2018 decline. Each of those appointments did not work out. Roll the dice again, and hope for the best. Okay, that didn’t work. Now roll it again.

Hughes has now had 78 games at the helm – an eternity when judged against the other modern Bradford City managerial tenures. But when you tally up his and all the other post-McCall second spell tenures together – it comes out at eight managers overseeing 278 matches. For comparison, Phil Parkinson’s five-year tenure saw him chalk up 274 matches in the City dug out.

We’ve completed the equivalent of Parkinson’s hugely successful reign of stability, only chopping and changing again and again. And we’ve pretty much gone backwards each and every time.

Except for Hughes’ tenure.

Yes of course, things do not look great so far this season. But after years and years of hoping that a change will lead to a reversal in fortunes, in Hughes City finally have a manager who has taken them forwards. Last season’s play off finish might have been an on-par expectation that limits some of the credit afforded to Hughes, but Adams and Bowyer in particular were managing to similar expectations and failed. Against a backdrop of so much decline post-2017, for any City manager to deliver some success is not something we should quickly shrug off.

Hughes got more time than the last seven managerial appointments, and last season was the first since 2016/17 that the same person who began the season in the Valley Parade dugout kept their job. It was also the first since 2016/17 that City made the play offs. There was stability, when before there was uncertainty and chaos.

The point is that the club’s approach to changing managers over the past five years has failed repeatedly. Why would removing Hughes now prove to be any different?

“Is there anything to be said for saying another Mass another change of manager?”

The counter argument to keeping Hughes is there and shouldn’t be ignored. Sticking with a manager is all well and good when the direction of travel is forwards. But when things are going wrong, sometimes you just have to act.

And so far this season, reasons to be happy and confident about Hughes’ prospects are in short supply. Performances have been patchy at best, with only sporadic spells where the team has looked convincing. The change of playing style looked unnecessary, given the overall success of the season before. Many of the new signings look unconvincing. The squad does not look stronger than last season.

Hughes stands accused of being out of touch. Of adopting tactics that are slightly behind the times. Of not reading the room when it comes to some of his post-match interviews. Of failing to instil confidence in supporters that things will get better.

It’s also unclear just how much his squad are buying into Hughes’ ways. The treatment of certain individuals – Jake Young and Matty Foulds, for example – do not sit well. Whichever way you look at it, the optics of Young’s form at Swindon reflect incredibly badly on Hughes. A player the manager overlooked for nearly a year, and who in the summer Hughes appeared to be actively pushing out, is now out-scoring his parent club on his own.

The Bradford City public was not entirely on board with last season’s possession-based style of play, but generally accepted the principles. This campaign, the football has become more stodgy, laboured and dull. There is yet to be a game and a performance that’s left supporters buzzing with excitement. No match that if you’d have missed it you’d have felt gutted.

This comes at a time when the average number of goals in League Two is rocketing compared to recent seasons. Swindon have scored 22 times so far, Wrexham have 20. In total, 11 of the 23 League Two rivals have netted double or more the amount City have scored. There have been 5-5 draws, a 6-0, two 5-3s, a 4-3, a 3-3. Gillingham aside, teams at the top are going for it in a big way, giving their fans plenty of excitement.

In contrast, City’s last three league games have seen just 11 shots on target from both teams involved. It’s all so tepid. Making an already restless crowd more agitated.

So yeah, there are reasons to sack Hughes right now. Just as there were reasons to sack Adams. Reasons to stand down Trueman. Reasons to fire Bowyer, Hopkin and the rest. There were even reasons to sack McCall in his second spell, back in February 2018.

But that doesn’t always make it the right answer.

“Oh, God, I love saying Mass changing managers”

The urge for Stefan Rupp and Ryan Sparks to press the red button now is understandable. Results aren’t up to scratch. And when supporter anger starts to rise, sacking a manager feels like a definitive action. A way of demonstrating that you’re doing something about it. And probably the only available option to express it.

In contrast, not changing managers leaves you accused of accepting a poor situation (or, in Ryan Sparks’ case after his infamous 2021 interview when he stood down Trueman, of “accepting mediocrity”). Don’t sack a manager, and are you really saying you’re okay with this? You can see why it can be hard to hold your nerve, when the easier choice can sometimes lie in drawing up a P45.

No one knows how Rupp and Sparks are viewing things right now, but the lessons from those repeated changes of manager in recent seasons mustn’t be ignored. Sometimes a change had to have been made – Adams’ toxicity left the club with a decision no one could argue with – but even merited sackings shouldn’t absolve owners and CEOs from the blame of making an ill-judged appointment in the first place. From Grayson’s arrival to Adams’ appointment, City were stuck on a spiral of getting it wrong.

Hughes has undoubtedly proved the best appointment of Spark’s tenure, and – McCall spell 2 aside – of Rupp’s time as owner too. And it took a lot of hiring and firing to get to this point. Sometimes, doing nothing is the harder choice – but it’s also the correct one.

Rightly or wrongly, another key consideration for Rupp and Sparks must be the likelihood of arrows coming your way. For the moment, Hughes is the focal point of supporter discontent. And if you’re Rupp/Sparks, doing something about that could boost your popularity in the short-term. But they will both know that the ire would soon quickly fall their way too. Especially if sacking and replacing Hughes doesn’t lead to improvement.

One of the many things that Hughes’ 2022 appointment brought Rupp and Sparks was time. The criticisms aired then – that the club lacked ambition, professionalism and competence – were getting louder. Hughes’ arrival quelled that, because it was a positive answer to the critics. A demonstration of their ambition and intent.

The attack dogs were called off then, with ‘Rupp out’ calls disappearing overnight. They’ve started to emerge again recently, but not in a significant way. Still, it’s not hard to envisage them getting louder if there’s a change of manager and City still falter.

If you’re going to sack Hughes anytime soon, you’d better have a plan.

“Well, that was no help. He didn’t even say Mass change managers”

Not a single club who finished in League Two’s top seven in 2022/23 changed managers mid-season. It was the same for the top seven the year before that.

At this stage last season, Carlisle – like City now – only had 10 points. As we know only too painfully, the Cumbrians went onto be promoted. The year before that at this point, Bristol Rovers were 22nd with only seven points – they would end the season automatically promoted. And the year before that, Bolton were 16th on six points – they too finished in the automatic promotion spots.

It’s early, early days. And we really shouldn’t panic.

We are the victim of a situation of our own making, but the issues with the squad right now are understandably having an impact. Andy Cook is injured, and his most obvious replacement – Vadaine Oliver – is also sidelined. Alex Pattison was the standout summer signing and started really well. He too has been out for nearly a month. Harry Chapman is a long-term absentee. Tyler Smith and Clarke Oduor have had availability issues. The late transfer window recruits are raw.

It should get better when Cook and Pattison return. Had they been available against Grimsby and Harrogate, City would have probably won both games. There are reasons to believe results and performances will improve.

And that leaves us to what I would argue are the strongest reasons to keep Hughes as manager. His composure, his detachment and his perspective – as unhelpful as it might come across in a post-match interview – are good traits in difficult times. Hughes is the first manager at Valley Parade since Phil Parkinson with the calm assurance not get too panicky or ruffled by set backs.

Only once since the start of last season have City lost back-to-back games. No matter how bad it feels some days – Crawley and Morecambe being great examples – Hughes has that quiet leadership and serenity to get the team to recover. We don’t need to look far for predecessors who – when it started to go wrong – could not apply the brakes. Where set backs quicky escalated into crisis.

I think Hughes has the know-how and experience to get City’s season going. To not run with the herd of alarm. And to give the players the assurance they need to keep going. These are qualities not easy to find in League Two managers. And the experience of Parkinson’s tenure in particular – where bumps in the road were plenty, but always navigated successfully – shows that these are good attributes to have at an emotional football club like Bradford City.

The question is – do the powers-that-be have the same level of cool conviction? Because while the darkening supporter mood and sliding results is not a new thing for them to manage, sticking to a plan in tricky moments most certainly is.

We’re entering a period of uncertainty where – for the last five years – the answer has always been to change the manager. Do Rupp and Sparks have another plan, or is it time for us all to pray again?  

Categories: Opinion

Tags: BCAFC, League Two, Mark Hughes