By Jason McKeown

As Bradford City spent their Saturday afternoon unexpectedly kicking their heels in the South Cumbrian sunshine after the most bizarre of match postponements, the tiniest of consolations can be taken from the fact a more accurate picture of their League Two promotion hopes has now emerged.

After last weekend’s victory over Sutton United, the Bantams had played a game more than every one of their rivals for the final play off positions, meaning the fact they trailed seventh spot by two points was slightly misleading. Now, thanks to some rearranged midweek League Two games and the fact all of Saturday’s fixtures but Barrow vs City were completed, everyone has now played at least 33 matches. Although City’s inaction has seen them drop two league places to 15th and the gap to the play offs increase to five points, they have emerged still in a very good position. Their prospects slightly enhanced rather than dimmed.

The five-point deficit to Gillingham comes with the Kent side having now played one more game than City. And, amazingly, if the Bantams’ game at Barrow had gone ahead and resulted in three points for the claret and amber side, they’d now actually be eighth in the league.

It’s unbelievably congested, remarkably tight. The big question – with 13 games to play – is what chance do Bradford City realistically have of making the play offs?

What does the League Two landscape look like?

At times during the first half of this League Two campaign, it felt like there was a significant gap between the best and worst sides in the division. It has undoubtedly narrowed of late. Unlike last season, no one is running away with the league like Leyton Orient. At the bottom it looks bleak for Sutton United, but Forest Green are making a fight of it under new manager Steve Cotterill – leaving Grimsby and Colchester with work to do to ensure their survival.

There is undoubtedly a top five who are on a higher level to everyone else. Mansfield claimed top spot at the weekend and have only lost four games all season. Stockport, who led for so long, have gone four games without a win to be overtaken. Crewe are third – registering another impressive away win, at Notts County, at the weekend, to go with their recent victory at Stockport. Wrexham, who are slightly faltering, are fourth with MK Dons – still in great form despite their recent 4-0 loss to Bradford City – edging their way into automatic promotion contention.

Five points separate the top five teams, and then there’s a five-point gap to sixth-place Barrow. It’s very likely that the automatic promotion places will be taken by three of Mansfield, Stockport, Crewe, Wrexham and MK Dons, with the two who miss out going into the play offs.

That leaves two play off positions up for grabs.

Barrow, who were in the automatic promotion conversation until recently, have a four-point cushion inside the top seven – but that advantage is receding. They’ve lost three in a row and only won two of their last 11 games.

Gillingham have moved into the final play off spot with Saturday’s home win over Wrexham, but prior to that had only won one of their previous seven games. So no one is exactly nailing these final two play off spots.

How much competition is there for sixth and seventh?

A lot, that’s for sure. Between eighth-placed Crawley and 16th-positioned Newport, the gap is a mere three points. Between sixth and 16th, the difference is seven points.

Which means we can reasonably argue there are 11 clubs competing for the final two play off spots.

11. Wow.

And perhaps unsurprisingly given the congestion, the majority of the runners and riders are blighted by inconsistency. Take Notts County – City’s next opponents. Since they gave the Bantams a bit of a hammering on Sky Sports in November, County have won only four of their subsequent 16 games. That includes one win in their last eight.

Or what about AFC Wimbledon, who seem to have spent more of the season in the top seven than out of it? Saturday’s loss to Doncaster means they’re winless in four, and they’ve won just two league matches in 2024.

Accrington, who City go to soon, have won just three of their last 11. Morecambe – who given their off the field challenges are confounding the odds just to be here – haven’t won in three games. Harrogate Town recently got hammered 9-2 by Mansfield and are winless in three.

Others are faring better. On Saturday Harrogate lost to Walsall, who like City have now won three in a row after a lengthy run without a win. Crawley are on a similar recovery run of three victories on the bounce. Newport have won six of their last eight games and seem to be a club on the up. Even after a weekend loss to MK Dons, County are second in the League Two form table for the last six games.

On Tuesday this week, half of the division are in action and we’ll learn even more. Harrogate face Newport and Walsall host Accrington Stanley – play off six-pointers, you might say. Notts County are also at home to bottom side Sutton. Plenty to keep your eyes on.

It really is a wide open field. No one outside the top five is hugely convincing. Perhaps one or two teams will emerge from the pack and firmly grasp one of the remaining play off spots.

For Bradford City right now, the question should be – why not us?

What does City’s run-in look like?

Seven of the Bantams remaining 13 games are at Valley Parade, where they’re finally starting to win games of football. Starting with Saturday’s visit of Notts County, four of those seven home games will be played in the space of a fortnight.

So we should have a better idea of their promotion credentials, very soon.

County have only won once on the road since October and have recorded a solitary victory since Luke Williams quit the Magpies to take the Swansea manager’s job. So it’s a good time to play them, in theory. After that, on Tuesday week City host a Doncaster side who have won just two away games in the league. Doncaster have already lost twice to the Bantams this season – City simply have to make it a hat trick.

After that, City travel to middling Accrington before they welcome second-bottom Forest Green to Valley Parade on the Tuesday – since Cotterill took over they’ve shown improvement so this won’t be easy. And then on the Saturday after that, leaders Mansfield come to Valley Parade.

Imagine if City can get a good points haul from the Notts County, Doncaster, Accrington and Forest Green fixtures? Valley Parade will be absolutely bouncing for the Mansfield game, with the visitors no doubt bringing a huge away following. It could be some occasion.

City’s final three home games are against Tranmere on Good Friday, and then fellow top seven hopefuls Gillingham and Newport – the latter on the final day of the season. On the road, they still need to go to Harrogate, struggling Grimsby Town, improving Salford and Walsall. There’s also the postponed Barrow game to re-arrange.

Nothing is ever decided on paper, but it’s not a terrible run-in for the Bantams. Just one more game against a top five club, and fixtures against five of the bottom eight sides.

How are City looking?

Famously after the November first half hammering at Notts County, Graham Alexander reverted to a 3-5-2 system that got a tune out of his players. City won six games in a row (four in the league) to climb from 19th to eighth. After the Friday night win at Doncaster just before Christmas, the club was bouncing.

But that Doncaster win came at a cost, with Jamie Walker and Alex Pattison picking up bad injuries and not seen since. Cue a damaging eight league games without a win that saw City fall back to 18th, as Alexander tried but failed to find a way to carry on with 3-5-2. He tried other players in the number 10 position, but no one delivered.

An eventual switch to 3-4-3 – first tried in the impressive EFL Trophy success at Derby County – has paid off, with the January transfer business undoubtedly helping. 3-4-3 relies on wide forwards having good energy levels to press high. It was a problem that Mark Hughes found earlier in the season when he attempted to play this way. For Alexander, the arrival of Calum Kavanagh and moving of Clarke Oduor into a wide forward position has paid off. Other players, like Harry Chapman and Bobby Pointon, have either failed to fully grasp the opportunity or are not trusted by Alexander. But with Kavanagh and Oduor in excellent form, it’s working.

It all means City have eventually found a way to operate effectively without a number 10 – getting them back on track. And with Walker said to be back soon, the manager might even be able to go back to 3-5-2 if the 3-4-3 stops proving as effective.

Defensively City have been great, with four clean sheets on the bounce in the league. Sam Walker is proving a step up from a faltering Harry Lewis, who was underachieving his metrics – something he’s continued to do at Carlisle. Alexander has five reasonable centre back options, and for balance it appears Jon Tomkinson on the right, Matty Platt in the middle and Ciaran Kelly on the left is the best combination. Sam Stubbs has done well too when called upon, with Platt currently injured.

In midfield, City look a much better team with Kevin McDonald pulling the strings, but managing the veteran midfield’s fitness is a key consideration. He seems more effective if only playing once a week rather than two, meaning rotation is needed. With Richie Smallwood’s two-match suspension now extended to next week and Alex Gilliead faring so well as left wing back, it’s a balance that won’t be easy to find. Stubbs’ unlikely appearance as central midfielder against Sutton might not be the last time he’s asked to take up this less familiar role.

You could really do with two Alex Gillieads at this point. Whilst Lewis Richards’ imminent return to fitness means City have a reasonable left wing back option, the summer signing is not as effective going forward. Gilliead is still needed in central midfield to ease McDonald’s workload, but City seem more balanced when he’s operating at wing back.

Up front, there’s a huge reliance on Andy Cook that does leave some concerns. City played really well against Wycombe Wanderers in the EFL Trophy, but also missed a hatful of chances that Cook would normally have gobbled up. There is a theory City played better football without Cook because there were less high balls forward. But given Cook netted 31 goals last season in a Hughes side that played patient passing football, there’s no reason why the Bantams have to go more direct to get the best out of their top striker.

The concern with Cook is there’s not really anyone to truly take the weight off his shoulders. Last season at his best, Cook was usually deployed for 70-80 minutes and then Vadaine Oliver brought on. With Oliver on loan at Stevenage, Cook is going to end up playing a lot of 90 minutes that will test his fitness. And any hint of an injury to their top scorer could significantly damage City’s top seven hopes. City have not won a single league game this season without Cook playing.

That all leaves a need for players on the sidelines to also step up and push those in the team. Tyreik Wright is now back from injury – where does he play? Long-term, you cannot leave a player of his quality out of the side. Jake Young too, after all the effort to keep him at the club when there was serious January interest, will surely have a part to play. And do we write off Chapman, Pointon and Tyler Smith?

After taking over, Alexander made plenty of noise about the squad being too big and wanting to cut it down. He didn’t exactly do this to the level he might have expected in January. But now, with some clear depth, he’s got quite a strong pack of cards to shuffle and utilise over these final 13 games. Albeit there are some positions where he is lacking options that lead to an over-reliance on individuals. Beyond Cook, what would City do if Brad Halliday got injured during the run-in?

What are City’s realistic chances?

After the 0-0 draw with Wimbledon at the start of this month, City were seven points off the play offs and seemingly out of it. They’ve done really well since to revive their hopes and get back into contention, with some of their best form of the season.

But that’s only stage one.

As Smallwood told the Telegraph & Argus last week, “Three wins is not enough, it’s got to be eight, nine, 10 wins in a row.”

It’s true. Showing excellent form just to claw themselves back into it only matters if they can show even more excellent form from here. In 2022/23 you needed 76 points to finish in the play offs, in 2021/22 it was 77 and in 2020/21 it was 73. If we average that out, 75 points is probably a reasonable target that City have to achieve this time out. That’s 29 points required from their final 13 games, an average of 2.23 per game. It means finding another eight or nine wins. At most, they can only afford to lose four more times. More realistically only three.

That’s why this next fortnight of games is absolutely huge. More than half of their remaining home games will be played imminently. And by the time the final whistle sounds against Mansfield (and assuming there are no more unexpected postponements between now and then of course!) City will have eight games left. We will know an awful lot more at this point about their chances. If they’re still only a couple of points off or even better, well, those final eight games are going to be huge.

So they’ve got to use their momentum and they’ve got to use it now. After so many difficult periods this season, there really isn’t much margin for error. But in a wide open play off race, they’re very much in with a chance – not something we expected to still be able to say given the picture at the start of this month.

Categories: Opinion

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