By Luke Lockwood
After Bradford City dropped another two points against Doncaster Rovers without really threatening for 70+ minutes, most assumed the same thing. The fat lady is warming up those vocal chords.
It’s hardly surprising, this season has been poor, really poor and at no point have we looked like a side deserving promotion or even a play-off spot. Our one good run of the season was rightly questioned based on the strength of the opposition.
Even our recent unbeaten run that has stretched to give games has included a smash and grab at Wrexham, an encouraging performance without touching the ball against MK and a dour win vs Sutton.
It is though, within those runs, that the defence puts forward the (admittedly weak) case for the play offs.
Firstly, we will go back to last season. Undeniably our team performed most attractively with Romoney Critchlow stationed next to Sam Stubbs. Critchlow, an excellent ball player, would start attacks passing through the lines and carrying the ball forward at pace.
However, defensively we conceded less goals and chances to the opposition with the more robust Matty Platt playing alongside Stubbs. Heading and kicking everything that came his way.
Fast forward a year and Stubbs – our best defender last year – can’t find a way back into the side but for injury and suspension. There’s great balance between Platt, a similarly robust but deceptively quick and crucially left footed Kelly and the exquisite, classy and crucially pacy Tomkinson.
Alex Scott expertly covered the change in dependency from the heroics of Harry Lewis last season to a generally better defensive output last week. Only Stockport in League Two can beat Bradford City’s Expected Goals Against (xGA) this season. Even Mansfield, who have conceded less than a goal per game, share a 1.18 xGA with ourselves.
But let’s look at games where Tomkinson-Platt-Kelly have started as the 3 centre halves, also known as the ‘Without Ash Taylor’ effect.
It’s five wins, three draws and two defeats, or 1.8 points per game. This sample of games also includes three of the top four sides, and everyone but Sutton and Doncaster are currently above us in the table.
I’m probably being a little harsh on Ash Taylor as, where we’ve only missed one of the three centre backs, results haven’t regressed as much as when two are missing. There’s also a further stark contrast as we move forward to the wing back positions.
Nothing needs to be said about the undisputed Player of the Season, Brad Halliday but on the other side is where we have struggled. I’m not a Liam Ridehalgh critic, but a left wing back he isn’t. So let’s look at the ‘Without Liam Ridehalgh effect’.
Of the 12 goals we’ve conceded when Richards has started; 4 came in the first half against Notts County with a flat back four and three in the horror show on his debut vs Derek Adams’ Morecambe.
If we were to extrapolate the 16 games ‘without Ridehalgh’ out over the season we would be three points off top spot with a game in hand on Mansfield. Whereas, ‘with Ridehalgh’ we would have 32 points and looking over our shoulders at Forest Green and Sutton.
Again this is probably a little harsh on Ridehalgh. There are of course other variables to consider, such as Ridehalgh’s latest run in the team coinciding with an injury to Jamie Walker, who set the tone for our play. We admittedly lost our way without him and still definitely miss him from an attacking sense.
However, we are definitely more defensively sound with either Richards and Gilliead at LWB, because of their physical prowess getting up and down. This also means they are likely to offer more for the opposition to think about when City are attacking. While Ridehalgh is the best crosser of the three, Richards and Gilliead get into more positions, more often and also create space for others by offering the option.
The good news is Gilliead and Richards are both now fit and hopefully at least one can remain so for the rest of the season!
What does all this actually mean in terms of our chances and where will we be at the end of the season?
Since Graham Alexander took charge, he has averaged 1.7 points per game. As we’ve shown above with our best defence available we’re averaging at least 1.8 points per game. Champions form.
If we were to average 1.7 points per game we’d end up on 67 points. It would be some going, but at two points per game we’d have 71 points.
By contrast if Walsall and Morecambe, realistically the two favourites for the final play off spot given league position and current form, were to continue their points / game over the season they’d finish on 70 points. In a real anti-climax, even the most positive data probably suggests we have too much to do.
But if we hope for the best our penultimate game of the season, away at the Bescot could have huge implications – a classic six pointer.
After Doncaster, I had a WhatsApp exchange discussing overlooking Bobby Pointon (a debate for another day). However, my dad remarked that ultimately we’re not good enough and Pointon will surely get his chance when our play off hopes are realistically over.
My argument is that, other than maybe Walsall fans right now, supporters of every team will be concluding they’re not good enough. That is why we are likely to stay in at least mathematical distance right until the end.
Ultimately I don’t think we have been good enough, or deserve to make the play offs and while we might make up ground we will run out of games. But if Messrs Halliday, Tomkinson et al stay fit until the end of the season I do think we will continue to keep strikers and the fat lady quiet until the very end.
Categories: Opinion
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Interesting and well-meaning speculations but more than a little unfair in my opinion to base any form of analysis or extrapolation on the absence of two players. There were other factors and variables at play when Ridehalgh and Taylor were in or not in the team. I see here lots of threads from the simplistic populist heroes-and-villains narrative concerning the two players mentioned plus the local pin-up Pointon and the rehabilitated Gilliead. We need wins which will only come about if our defenders don’t make mistakes – as, for example, the unfortunate Stubbs has done in the last 2 games – and our attackers take some of their chances. That’s the reality in layman’s terms. Speculation about the determining effects of the difference of one tenth of one decimal point in league points I leave to others. To me such analyses reduce the game to some kind of pocket calculator cost-benefit paradigm so prevalent in the modern age. This afternoon I’m hoping for three points, not 1.9! A certain percentage will predictably be outraged by my comments I’m sure. They may verbalise their displeasure in words but words are nothing without deeds. Let’s hope we do the deed this afternoon.
I do absolutely agree about Ridehalgh and Taylor it was more tongue in cheek to help make the point about the strongest defence. It wasn’t intended to come across as player bashing but praising the other defenders. It’s referenced that it’s harsh and there are plenty of other variables.
The point to be made is we have arguably the best defence in the division when all are available which can cover our inefficiencies in attack.
When some are missing the replacements are capable but undoubtedly a downgrade hence we concede more goals. To achieve a play off spot it’s more likely it will be via winning tight games of the odd goal so we need the best defence available.
Unfortunately since GA arrived he does not yet know his best team. The league position has not gotten any better since he arrived and the standard of football is poor. All things considered the club’s season ticket sales will drop off.so we are in a spiral as the budget will reduce. Sad times and another poor choice of manager by Sparks.
Utter drivel. Alexander is clearly a good manager.
Season ticket sales will not be vastly reduced no matter how much the negative, Sparks bashing minority would like them to be.
I am afraid they will be significantly reduced.
The ‘car crash’ Radio Leeds ensured that RS put the final nail in the season ticket sales.
Sometimes the truth hurts. Our budget will reduce, GA will play less attractive football and is not as big a name as Hughes. ST sales will reduce on the back of a poor season unless we have a great end to it. Looking at our current squad, if our best players stay fit, we do have a good chance of reaching the play offs. My fingers are crossed rather than myself being expectant
Interesting article, thank you.
Quite surprised by the comments thought we were excellent yesterday OK it might be a little late but personally think Alexander is doing a great job, he had a lot to address on his arrival. What ever happens feel the guy needs another chance next year