By Jason McKeown

The question is how far back we should go. Do we choose only to remember the final seven games of last season, where Bradford City turned into Barcelona 2008-2012 and swept aside all before them? Do we add in the nightmare four games before that – Forest Green, Mansfield, Notts County and Harrogate – where Bradford City became Derby County 2007/08, looking utterly hopeless? What about the bit before that, where they were decent? Or the bit before the decent part, where they were pretty awful?

There is chatter and fear about Bradford City’s summer recruitment activity and whether it’s truly shifting the dial. That there is no revolution to televise, perhaps because of a false sense of security over how the Bantams ultimately only missed out on a play off finish by one point. Did City’s end of season flourish prove the patient didn’t need surgery after all, or was it a flimsy sticky plaster that temporarily masks their deficiencies? A summer of largely low key transfer activity would suggest that – within the club – a lot of weight has been placed on those final seven games.

Given City were so topsy turvy in their form last season, it’s easy to worry that recency bias is over-influencing decision making. The music stopped with City at a very good point, brushing aside Newport County 4-1 in front of a watching Stefan Rupp, in a manner that suggested they could smash up a weaker-looking League Two in 2024/25. But this was largely the same group of players who were getting humiliated by everyone in March. Had the music stopped at that point, a complete knock down and rebuild of this squad would have seemed the only option.

So what is the true track record for City to have taken from last season to shape this summer’s plotting? Well, it seems like the further back we go, the more meaningful the data patterns become.

So it feels fair to rewind to Monday 6 November 2023 at least. That was the day the club finally sorted their manager, unveiling Graham Alexander after a ponderous 33-day search. It was the moment Alexander began to take control. Bore responsibility for results. The season starts here. That’s the real quiz.

And this is where the data looks encouraging. Because yes, the Alexander era kicked off dismally by going 1-0 down inside 30 seconds to Barrow, followed by the TV humiliation to Notts County the week after. But it soon got better. Soon got good. Spells of decent results, spells of iffy form, but an overall upwards trajectory. City were 16th when Alexander took the reins. They ended the season 9th.

Alexander’s record, overall, is very promising. 31 league games in charge, 52 points. That works out as 1.67 points per game, which over a 46-game season would translate to 77 points. Typically, this tally would be just short of finishing inside the automatic promotion places, but not by much. It’s a total that would usually see you comfortably make the play offs.

From 6 November 2023 to the end of last season, Alexander and City had the fifth best record in League Two. They were only six points behind the best side over this period, Wrexham (who gained 58 points). Five points fewer than Stockport and Mansfield (57) – who like Wrexham went up. The only side with a better points record than Alexander, who didn’t get promoted, was his former club MK Dons (56 points).

There was undeniably some bad days at the office under Alexander last season. The dismal 4-2 home loss to Crawley, the 2-0 surrender to Swindon, the March madness of four defeats, and some pretty abject home draws with Salford, Doncaster and Grimsby, where entertainment was in painfully short supply.

But there were many good days too. Six straight wins just before Christmas, victory at Wrexham followed by a 4-0 thrashing of MK Dons three days later in February. The Tranmere Good Friday win, on a day of protests, and the dramatic victories over Salford, Walsall and Barrow that were almost enough to earn an unlikely play off spot.

Overall Alexander won 15 of his 31 league games in charge, losing only 9. They racked up 45 goals and conceded 38 – and 10 of those happened during that ill-fated March spell of grimness. There was also the memorable cup run that saw City harshly beaten in their first ever EFL cup semi final appearance. Alexander masterminded cup wins over Barnsley, Liverpool U21s, Derby and Doncaster on the way to the last four.

Alexander unlocked improvements, especially with the January transfer window moves. Harry Lewis’ departure was a surprise, but the underlying stats would show this was an inspired decision, especially with replacement Sam Walker proving a revelation. Tyreik Wright was successfully converted to a left wing back. Calum Kavanagh settled in brilliantly. A late season tweak of the 3-5-2, to leave Richie Smallwood as the only defensive midfielder, brought the best out of several players and the system. Bobby Pointon and Jamie Walker especially thrived.

A lot of City’s progress under Alexander almost occurred underneath the surface. Rightly, there was a lot of noise about how badly the season was going. City had a lot of catching up to do, which meant that green shoots of recovery were cast into the shade by a disappointing overall league position. Alexander didn’t really get a honeymoon period, the mood music was already dark and took a long time to lighten.

But when you study the data, there’s a lot more than a bunch of late season victories to excite. Alexander currently has a 51% win ratio, league and cup. According to the always reliable Wikipedia, that is the third best record out of every Bradford City manager in history.

All of this offers good reasons for why this hasn’t been a summer of transformation. Why there has so far only been five new arrivals, compared to 11 last summer and 18 of the summer before. And yes, that can seem a bit boring when the close season days stretch out endlessly, with nothing for us supporters to get our teeth into other than getting wound up by over-drawn kit launches. But in a league without the same financial imbalances, the building blocks for success already seem to be in place. At least, that’s what the numbers suggest.

Of course there is work to do. Matty Platt’s departure is a big loss in my opinion (City won 53% of their games last season when he played, and achieved just one league victory without him). It’s unclear if we’ve adequately replaced the 26-year-old. Especially with loanees Daniel Oyegoke and Jon Tomkinson no longer at the club.

Is Tyreik Wright the answer at LWB? Maybe, but there’s not enough data on that really to conclude. Could be a problem there. We’ll see. Andy Cook has definitely got leaner this close season but he isn’t getting younger. Do we have an adequate support for a guy so often irreplaceable? And is there enough goals between Jake Young, Kavanagh and Tyler Smith?

Strength in depth is a concern. Alexander likes a leaner squad, we all know that. But that does throw open the risk of a couple of injuries jeopardising their prospects. That March collapse occurred with a Matty Platt-shaped hole at the back. Losing Jamie Walker at Christmas left a headache that took weeks to solve. Last season under Alexander, the team did not cope well when the treatment room was busy.

There are questions over whether Stefan Rupp’s pledge to invest more this season is proving to be hollow. It’s too early to judge on that, but it’s something to definitely keep an eye on. A marquee signing or two wouldn’t go amiss, that’s for sure. Talk of needing to shift people out first does not inspire confidence, however necessary certain player departures appear to be.

Finally, we must caution against assuming the league will be easy, just because there is no longer a Disney Plus documentary crew following one of the owners around. Stockport, Wrexham and Mansfield had greater financial might than the teams coming down for sure, but other clubs are busy this summer. Money is being spent. League Two won’t be a walk in the park for anyone.

Plenty for City to do still then, yes. But this is a Bradford City squad in decent fettle. In need of fine tuning instead of an overhaul. You don’t have the fifth best record in League Two over more than 30 games without doing something right. If a couple more gems can be unearthed, Alexander and City are in a great position to carry on the progress they’ve made since last November.

Categories: Opinion

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