Pre-amble
By Jason McKeown
We need to talk expectations for Bradford City – and those expectations begin and end with the P word. Promotion.
Stefan Rupp has made it clear that’s the goal. Supporters certainly demand it. And with League Two looking distinctly weaker on paper, it has to be an attainable prize to go for. There really is no other yardstick. No other mission as important.
Any type of promotion will do of course. But to ensure it happens, a top three finish is surely the target. Yeah, we’ll take promotion through the play offs at Wembley. Of course we will. But the painful way Bradford City’s last three play off campaigns ended show there are no guarantees a top seven finish will get you promoted. Top three then, please. With a play off finish a fall-back option.
The big question is whether we have a squad that’s good enough to achieve an automatic promotion finish. It’s something we’re going to look at in depth on WOAP this week, with Tim Penfold and Alex Scott joining me to profile each member of the squad and our overall strengths and weaknesses. Where are the gaps still to fill before the window closes? Which areas of the squad give us hope that this year can be a successful one?
Before we get into it though, let’s talk a bit more about those targets.
On average, a third-place finish in League Two requires 24 wins, 72 goals and 82 points
We’ve run the numbers of the last 10 completed League Two seasons (so ignored the curtailed 2019/20 campaign) to work out how many points are typically needed to finish at least third in League Two. This table shows the average third place finish record, and City’s record in League Two last season:
City’s record finishing ninth last season was always going to be inferior, but it’s a useful way to measure the gaps. They basically need to win five more games this season compared to last, score an extra 11 goals, and concede 10 fewer.
Over the last 10 full League Two seasons, every third-place finisher has won at least 23 games – and lost no more than 13 times. Only twice have teams sealed the final auto spot scoring fewer goals than City’s 61 last season (Bury scored 60 in 2014/15 and Bolton 59 in 2020/21). And only one team has claimed third conceding more goals than the 59 City shipped in last season (Wycombe let in 60 in 2017/18).
On average, a seventh-place finish in League Two requires 20 wins, 63 goals and 72 points
What about that consolation prize of a play off finish? Again we’ve run the numbers for a top seven placing over the same period. This table shows the average seventh place finish record, and compares it with City’s record in League Two last season:
The gap was always going to be closer here, and what especially stands out is that attacking wise City were reasonably in line with the standards needed to finish at least seventh. They only scored two fewer goals than the average (61 goals to 63). Over the last 10 completed seasons, four teams have sealed seventh spot while netting less times than City’s 61 (York’s 52 in 2013/14, Plymouth’s 55 in 2015/16, Newport’s 59 in 2018/19 and Tranmere’s 55 in 2020/21).
City’s defensive record is definitely still an issue though. Only Crawley last season nabbed seventh spot while conceding more goals than City. It’s interesting that teams who finish third and seventh on average have similar defensive records (50 goals conceded).
It’s worth adding – as we’ve spoken about already this pre-season – that when we look at City’s record last season post-Alexander’s arrival, the picture is more encouraging. If Alexander’s 31-game record was extrapolated over a 46-game season, they would have had 77 points, scored 67 goals and conceded 56. Points-wise enough for a play off spot at least.
All of this suggests that if City can concede fewer than 50 goals this season, they can finish in the play offs and maybe even the top three. But they will need to score slightly more goals to make the play offs, and have to become a lot more prolific if they are to seal a top three spot.
So that’s got to the target. A defence that can ship in 10 fewer goals than overall last season – when defensively they were very good. And an attack that needs to chip in with 11 or more goals.
We need to keep these figures in mind as we begin to deep dive into the squad and each area of the team. Are we strong enough to significantly reduce how many goals we concede, and are we potent enough to increase the number of times we find the back of the net?
Let’s find out over the next few days. Starting off the with the goalkeepers.
(A quick note to say – all 2023/24 stats are based on League Two matches only.)
Sam Walker
| 23/24 apps | Mins % | A | Clean sheets |
| 20 | 43% | 22 | 7 |
By Jason
The recruitment team at Bradford City has rightly had a good kicking over the past year, but one move they definitely got correct was bringing in Sam Walker. Harry Lewis’ January departure to Carlisle came as a surprise. But with Walker, City swapped a series of increasingly erratic goalkeeping displays for solid, dependable consistency. Walker at his best is not quite Lewis at this best, but Walker at his worst is certainly a lot better than Lewis at his worst.
Walker made 20 appearances for the Bantams last season, keeping seven clean sheets. He was a calming presence. Nothing flashy. Just a good shot stopper. He couldn’t pass it from the back as effectively as Lewis, but under Alexander’s direct style that didn’t matter.
The next challenge for Walker is to do what he did for 20 games over a full season. Become that consistent, reliable goalkeeper that any club with serious aspirations of promotion always needs.
For a player who has had a nomad existence since 2021 – City are his fifth different club in three seasons – it’s all about making this a happy home. Walker has a contract up to next summer. If he carries on where he left off last season, he’s a shoe-in to earn another deal.
What a good season looks like: He plays every week and lets no one down with a series of decent displays that contribute to a good defensive record. Ben Williams in 2015/16.
What a great season looks like: He produces a season worth of outstanding performances that include numerous match-winning saves, culminating in getting City promoted. Gary Walsh in 1998/99.
Colin Doyle
| 23/24 apps | Mins % | A | Clean sheets |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
By Tim
What is there to say about City’s erstwhile keeper coach and number two? He did a perfectly good job last year sitting on the bench and covering in the Football League Trophy, showing that he was still a perfectly competent keeper at this level. His recommendation of former teammate Sam Walker proved to be a very good one and suggested that a future in scouting may be open to him if coaching doesn’t work out.
This season will probably be much the same – plenty of time on the bench and occasional games in front of a sparse Valley Parade. There is, however, a question mark on whether he would be able to cover in the case of a serious injury for Walker, and City have had two younger trialist keepers in pre-season to potentially fulfil the lesser-spotted Joe O’Shaugnessy role.
What a good season looks like: Basically, the same as last season – gets a decent collection of splinters from league games and lets nobody down when providing occasional cover. Colin Doyle 2023/24.
What a great season looks like: Re-establishes himself as a league keeper through some misfortune hitting Walker, and rolls back the years with his displays. Gary Walsh 2000/01.
The verdict
Looking at the sample size of Walker’s 22 goals conceded in 20 games, over the course of a season this would work out as 51 goals conceded. Based on those earlier figures, this would be a defensive record almost good enough to earn an automatic promotion spot. Conceding less than 50 goals is something he could be more than capable of achieving (his 22 goals conceded last season included that awful City run of shipping 13 goals in four games over March, which was an anomaly).
The dashboard has green lights here then. In City’s quest to concede fewer than 50 goals this season, they have a man between the sticks who offers an encouraging track record. Big tick here.
So far so good then. Tomorrow, we continue by looking at the defence.
Categories: Previews
Hope 
This means more 
This is what we’ve all been waiting for 
Assessing the 2025/26 Bradford City squad #3: The frontline of the 3-4-3 
widthofapost.com 
Based on last season Sam Walker is good enough to be our number 1 in a promotion season. The slight concern I have is whether we saw the best Sam Walker last season and if there is a drop off.
He’s only once in his career been part of a defence that’s got close to the numbers you speak about (and did win players player that season for Colchester which also suggests he’s good in the dressing room).
if he does drop the standards he set then will the questions be of Colin Doyle as coach following the regression of Harry Lewis too?
More importantly though, the defensive record will be about the sum of the parts so look forward to the assessment of the defence.
My concern is not Sam Walker’s ability but the lack of a suitable backup if he goes down for any reason. Presumably we are actively looking for another keeper – which would explain why Doyle’s position seems to be unclarified. He has yet to sign a new contract as player, it seems, but remains with us, presumably waiting to know whether his role might just be that of coach. Not ideal so close to the start of the new campaign and I expect a signing soon.
The loan market for goal keepers doesn’t shut so there should be decent keepers from higher divisions available if Walker gets injured. Not sure that would cover loss of form though! Seem to remember Stevenage bringing in 5 loan keepers at different intervals the season they were promoted.
For me we need more goals and cannot keep relying on Andy Cook who is now 33?
He will, like others, have a dip in form/injury etc.
Jake Young is yet to be proved as a striker who can contribute enough goals for City, although I hope he can be, and the rest I do not have enough confidence in to score them, Kavanagh may get 10 but that’s it.
So……another striker please, and not some kid from a Premiership under 21’s team…….someone who has been there and done it.
we have Cook, Kavanagh, Oliver, Young, Walker, Odour, Pattison, Wright, Gilliard who are attack minded players. And we don’t have Hughes’s obsession with playing it around at the back and sitting deap when we go one up. If I were the German and asked to fork out for another striker it would be a nein from me.
just remembered Smith & Wilson too!
We get as far as discussing the goalies, and no further, and already someone is demanding we sign an experienced proven 20-a -season goalscorer
Firstly, it’s good to have the WOAP lads back! Can’t wait for the numerous debates to fully get going and the top drawer podcasts!
Looking forward to the season ahead and I’m my usual confident self of believing this will be our year! My missus reminds me that I say the same thing each year!
Can’t help but still feel that we were so close last year looking at those stats again and that March collapse killed us. Anyway onwards and upwards!
A goalkeeper needs to feel confident behind his defence (well all the team really) to perform to his best so let’s hope we’ve chosen well with new defenders that have come in and the ones we already have get to fulfil their potential.
I think GA will lead us to glory!