By Jake Verity

So that’s it. We’re back up and running. A Euros, Olympics and squad trip to Austria have been highlights of an otherwise quiet summer.

But from now up until May next year, it’s seven days a week of Bradford City back in our lives.

The goals. The near misses. The transfers.

The away games. The interviews. The cup matches.

The hopes. The dreams. And those moments that we’ll never forget.

It’s all back.

Last weekend’s result at MK Dons was a brilliant way to start the season. Not only was it our first victory on the opening day in six years; but also the first time we’ve scored in the season’s opening game since then.

What a way to do it, too. Alex Pattison’s strike certainly got us off to a flying start and the away end had hardly finished celebrating before we had a two goal lead. A strong performance against the team tipped to win the division, away from home, on the opening day, is about as good as it gets.

Although we’ve also been knocked out of the cup against Grimsby – again there was plenty to be encouraged about. Though xG and chances created don’t always translate into results – I’m struggling to remember the last Bradford City match where we had an xG of 3.29 and had 23 shots on goal.

But as our attention turns to this weekend, we go into a home match against Salford City. Without being overly hyperbolic, it could be a crucial moment for us.

Yes, it’s still early days. But in many ways, this is different to previous seasons. Different in the sense that many things are the same, which really hasn’t been the case over recent campaigns.

To put things into context, we’re starting the season with the same manager that we finished the previous year with for only the third time since 2017.

Of the starting XI to play against MK Dons, just three players were completely new additions to the squad that finished at the end of last season (Neill Byrne, Aden Baldwin and Antoni Sarcevic).

We also have Andy Cook going into his fifth season as our main striker – and it’s great to see he is already off the mark.

Richie Smallwood goes into his third season as our captain – who looks strong in the system we’re using.

But we’re also at a point where other regular starters like Brad Halliday, Ciaran Kelly, Tyreik Wright and Jamie Walker have amassed a combined total of well over 200 league appearances for the Bantams. It’s hard to remember the last time we started a season with a truly settled squad like this one.

You could argue it’s Mark Hughes’ squad from the start of last year which included many of the same players, but that team did lack a defined playing style and depth. We now have both under Alexander.

So, the point I want to make is that we’re finally in a place to address our home form.

If we get that right? This actually could be a season to get excited about.

The Stats

If you feel our home form has been frustrating over the past few years, don’t worry, you’ve got every right to feel that way.

In the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons, we only managed to win 39.1% of our home games.

When you contrast that with last year’s top three Stockport (65.2%); Wrexham (73.9%); and Mansfield (60.9%); you can see the gulf between us and promotion-winning sides.

The most heartening, but equally frustrating thing is we’ve not actually been terrible at home. If you look at the results over the last two seasons, we rarely lose games at Valley Parade. We’ve only lost ten times over 46 home matches since the start of the 2022/23 season.

The issue is the number of draws. Eighteen of them over the past two campaigns.

Put this another way, that’s an average of nine draws over the past two seasons where it’s two points lost rather than won.

If we converted just four of those into wins, we’d have gone up automatically to League One in third place during the 22/23 season; and we’d have comfortably made the play offs last season in fifth place.

So, what needs to change?

Well, for a start, it’s game management. You’d expect that Alexander has spent a big portion of summer focusing on this – and I would hope the recruitment of fitness coaches has looked to address this problem. We already look better at pressing.

If you look at our home draws last season, five of them saw us score equalisers after the 80th minute, and two were goalless draws. This shows that the squad has reasonable character, especially as we’ve actually spent the last few seasons talking about players being “unable” to handle Valley Parade.

The main thing that this really shows is we never really laid down the initiative at home. We either conceded early and chased a game while a team dropped deep. Or, we simply couldn’t break them down from the start. A much fitter team will help with this – see MK Dons away for exactly why.

It bodes well if we can start taking the lead too. If you forget the Walsall game at home last September which we lost – in every single game where we took the lead at Valley Parade over 2023/24, we ultimately went onto win.

The run towards the end of last season illustrated just how good Alexander has been in particular at ensuring that we don’t lose from winning positions. We’ve actually become a team that can sit back and drop in; especially since Sam Walker arrived.

The most important thing is getting out there and scoring early. Setting the narrative and making sure a team has to come out and play against us. Because there’s a good chance if we do that, we’ll be able to go on and turn a good lead into a solid result as the opposition will leave gaps. It flips the issue where *they* then can’t handle Valley Parade.

Looking ahead

I titled this piece, “if not now, when” because this is our chance to turn our home form around. We can’t waste any time in getting out of this league and I think this squad certainly has enough talent to do so. If we want to go up automatically, we need to do so by winning lots of games and making sure many of them are at Valley Parade. It’s obvious, but for so long, we simply haven’t done it.

It’d also be nice to see us score some goals while doing it. If you look at the second-half of the season under Alexander, we scored four goals at home in two games (MK Dons and Newport) and we also scored three away at both Accrington and Walsall. I don’t think that’s a coincidence as it’s rare we’ve scored so many goals in a short period in previous seasons. This shows the attacking shift we’ve made.

The last time we scored five goals in any league match was the 25th August 2012 against AFC Wimbledon at Valley Parade. The last time we won by a five goal margin in the league was also at home against Oxford United on the 30th October 2010. It’s shameful really that it’s been so long since we scored five league goals – I don’t think many other clubs have such a dismal record in front of goal.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if we broke these records this season, because of the way we are going to play and the players we have. Cook, Calum Kavanagh, Jake Young, Alex Pattison, Jamie Walker, Bobby Pointon; and Sarcevic all have the ability to score over ten goals in the league. Feel free to quote me on this if we don’t manage it.

The question is more how many we might concede. But I think it’s worth talking about our defensive line – given some fans seem to be worried about it looking weaker this season. I do think it’s less that we have weakened the defence and more that we’re accepting we’ll give away chances at the back in order to become a more attacking team.

That’s why Wright and Halliday are crucial at wing-back in recovering counter attacks. Byrne/Kelly/Baldwin are players who are more focused on blocking the ball and defending deeper in a more old-fashioned style – but can get caught when playing higher line and will need help from the midfield at times. That’s something I hope we can improve on over the course of the season, as it’s where we’ve conceded in both of our games so far.

On a bigger pitch like MK Dons, these gaps will be more obvious and good teams will be able to make the most of it. But on a smaller pitch like Valley Parade, it’ll be less of an issue over the course of a season. If we do give away chances on the counter; make a glaring mistake or at worst concede. It’s because Alexander is trying to be proactive and attacking. It’s not because this defence is incompetent and I’d urge some patience there. I thought Byrne in particular was outstanding at MK Dons despite being exposed as a result of this tactic, making several crucial blocks.

I’d rather we took the initiative and played attacking football, because for too long it’s been the opposite and we’ve been too cautious. Let’s try and score early in our games. Because that proactiveness will help us address our home form – and it might just be fun to watch too.

Let’s see what happens on Saturday.

Categories: Opinion

Tags: BCAFC