By Will Wade

Walking away from Barrow, preparing for the long journey back, it was hard to shake off the suspicion that Bradford City had missed a golden opportunity. And unfortunately, that is a familiar feeling.

For the majority of the season, it’s felt like City have underperformed. Rarely have I walked away from Valley Parade truly convinced that City look like an outfit that’s promotion bound. A side that takes the game to the opposition.

Yet even with this underachievement, we find ourselves ninth in the table. Five points off Doncaster in second with a game in hand. Despite the poor form between late October and Boxing Day – consistently creating very little, and showing few signs of improvement – we still manage to find ourselves right in amongst it.

With teams stuttering around us and the league table being as tight as it is, a fantastic opportunity has presented itself to take the shackles off and surge up the league. How often do we watch other teams in seasons gone by grasp this sort opportunity with both hands, leaving us to watch on wishing it was us?

What does the data show?

Statistical and analytical data appear to forge a key part in the thinking within the corridors of Bradford City. Upon Mark Hughes’ departure, Ryan Sparks effectively stated that the underlying data suggested City were heading towards a fight that they could not afford…. Whilst this thinking was a bit extreme, it is clear that data plays a large role in the thinking and preparation of Bradford City. In a recent Telegraph & Argus piece, Graham Alexander was quoted saying:

“I know supporters at all football clubs don’t think data is important, but I think it is. It paints a picture behind performances and can just direct a players’ focus to certain aspects that we need to do better on.

“When you have cold, hard facts and video opinion, it’s black and white then and I think it helps.”

In light of this, what do the cold, hard facts actually say about this current season in comparison to our 2022/23 season, in which we reached a play off semi final? The below table shows how we rank in the division this season and then.

As highlighted above, the stats read pretty poorly. City’s ‘underlying data’ suggests our output is akin to a mid-table side. The majority of our performances over the last two months would also heavily suggest this.

In essence, we don’t create enough, we don’t shoot enough, our crosses are poor, and we don’t play enough in the opposition’s final third. This is a very damning trend, one that probably explains our consistently inconsistent form. If it continues, we can expect more of the same.

Further to this, the data highlighting City’s creativity is shocking. We have arguably the best striker in the league, yet both the bottom sides in the division have created more ‘bigger chances’ than City. In terms of ‘big chances’, with the exception of Salford and City, the top 11 teams have created between 43 and 62 ‘big chances’, whilst City have only created 32. That is a huge difference.

The fact we are 20th in big chances created and our league position is far healthier than the statistic can only be down to one person – the hero that is Andy Cook. The Port Vale win only highlights this further, if you get the ball into Cook, he will score.

If Alexander is a huge fan of the data, has the consistent trend about our lack of creativity raised any alarm bells? If so, why’s he not changed anything?

How can we change this?

There has been a lot of noise online that City need to sign a second striker/forward to partner Cook. This urgency for a new striker has only increased after Cook worryingly limped off early on at Barrow.

For years, fans have questioned why we seem to be a graveyard for strikers. But if you don’t create chances, you won’t score goals. Cook feeds off scraps every week. His wonder goal against Port Vale, created out of absolutely nothing, is something only Andy Cook could do. Any striker who walks through the door this January window will face up to the same reality all of our strikers face – a lack of service.

Yes, we need a new striker. But more importantly, we need to sort out our chance creation.

Midfield conundrum

On the squad’s biggest area of strength is the quality and depth in midfield, especially in the attacking roles.

The debate seemed to start to rage over the past week. Listening to the radio in the car after the Boxing Day victory against Port Vale, BBC Radio Leeds’ Andy Kiwomya highlighted all the top midfielders we have. However, he seemed uncertain on how to fit them all in the team, as the current system only allows for two of them. This uncertainty is still the case after the Barrow stalemate on New Year’s Day.

What is clear since Boxing Day and the Chesterfield match is that Antoni Sarcevic, Alex Pattison and Richie Smallwood are pivotal to the way Alexander wants City to play. In the case of Sarcevic and Pattison, they are powerhouses in midfield who drive the team forward with a knack for a goal and assist. Pattison instigated the equaliser against Chesterfield and Sarcevic was pivotal in scoring the winner in the same game, as well as setting up the equaliser against Barrow. We need to find a system that fits all three in, without taking away from the front three. Against Chesterfield, accommodating the trio meant pushing Sarcevic up front.

To get them all in midfield, Alexander could switch back to 3-5-2 and drop Bobby Pointon. This would be daft, as Bobby one of the most creative players we have and dropping him when we have underlying creativity issues would only serve to limit us.

For me the answer isn’t 3-4-3 or 3-5-2. But going 4-3-3.

An over-staffed defence

We have a wealth of good solid centre backs. Paul Huntington, Neill Byrne, Ciaran Kelly, Jack Shepherd and Aden Baldwin are all decent options. Not to mention Cheick Diabate.

However, with this wealth of centre backs, I’d flip it and argue that there is enough strength there to play just two. They are defensively solid enough to cope in a back four, affording us the opportunity to play one more of those many good central midfielders that we have. The lack of clean sheets this season suggests the so-called extra protection of three at the back isn’t working.

Listening to the David Sharpe interview with BBC Radio Leeds’ Jamie Raynor the other week, he suggested that the problems in the games against Morecambe and Harrogate back in September and October were down to playing a back four. I think this is harsh and misguided. Our only two fit centre backs then were two very young inexperienced centre backs in Shepherd and Diabate.

This isn’t the case anymore and with a wealth of good solid options, I personally think we’d be very strong as a back four. Especially given Smallwood can sit just in front of them anyway.

The current system and its shortcomings

There have been glimpses of the current set up working. It’s undeniable that City were impressive in their 3-4-3 set up against Crewe, Stockport, Port Vale and in the second half vs Chesterfield.

However, one constant trend persisted in all of these games. All four of the opposition sides came forward and attacked City. It seems as if, for this set up to work, it requires the opposition to be willing to attack, to come on to us allowing us to counter and hit them on the break. We all know City generally play well when they go up against sides who want to have the ball, yet the biggest hurdle City still need to overcome is how to be better, more creative, and more effective against teams who aren’t so willing. Those teams who are happy to stick ten men behind the ball, especially at Valley Parade.

This is a problem that persisted last year and one that hasn’t been overcome this season yet. Quite frankly, it’s one that needs to be overcome if we want to get promoted this year.

Whilst I appreciate the theory behind playing a 3-5-2 or a 3-4-3, in that the wing backs play high up, so you have an extra attacker going forward but also an extra defender defensively, it’s never exactly seemed like we do indeed have an extra player in attack. All too often, it’s felt like we have been an attacker short, basically playing with five defenders and a holding midfielder in Smallwood, thereby leaving us really with only four players in the final third. And this attacker short has reflected in our lack of attacking output, which can be seen in the stats that were highlighted earlier.

Our lack of creativity has been a consistent theme this year. Despite the constant tweaks to personnel within the same two systems we have played (3-5-2 and 3-4-3), we have consistently created very little. The predictability in the way we play and set up must make it easier for teams to work out from game to game how to play against us. Sit behind the ball. City rarely break the lines.

When we needed to attack at Barrow with 10 minutes left, we brought on an extra attacker on and switched to a 4-3-3, with Clarke Oduor running back in off the right. It instantly brought about the equaliser. It may sound daft, but if that’s the formation that suits us when we absolutely needed a goal, then why not play it from the start?

I absolutely believe that we have an extremely strong squad, arguably one of the best in the league, Alexander just needs to make the most of its strengths. Please, please take the shackles off Alexander, be bold and switch to a more attacking system that suits our players – and reap the benefits.

Categories: Opinion

Tags: 2024/25, BCAFC