By Jason McKeown

There was no way to sugar coat it, the New Yorks Knicks were screwed. It’s the 1999 NBA play offs. They’re up against Indiana in the Eastern Finals, and star player Patrick Ewing has torn his Achillies tendon. His season is over, and surely the Knicks’ season is over too. A team that has underachieved no longer has the power forward who’s propped them up for years.

But just as everyone wrote them off, something remarkable happened.

A Ewing-less Knicks crushed Indianna in the play off series, and progressed to the national NBA finals for only the second time in 26 years. Amongst the thousands of delirious Knicks fans is a knowing Dave Cirilli, who was quietly developing a theory that – as wonderful a player as Ewing was – both New York and his former team, Georgetown, seemed to fare better when he didn’t play.

Indeed, as news of Ewing’s injury was originally devastating Knicks’ fans, Cirilli emailed his long-time friend Bill Simmons, a sports writer for ESPN, with a bold prediction that would come true. “Ewing’s injury is the best thing that ever could have happened to the Knicks – they’re definitely making the Finals now.”

Cirilli’s idea – known as Ewing Theory – was about to be given global credibility.

***

26 years on from the birth of Ewing Theory, Bradford City were about to test the concept themselves. It’s New Years Day, it’s a cold afternoon in Barrow, and Andy Cook is lying crumbled on the ground, just minutes after the start of the League Two fixture. It looks serious. Cook never goes down. He gets up and tries to keep playing. He falls to the ground again. F**k. Minutes tick by as the medical team assess City’s star striker. The diagnosis isn’t good. Cook has to be taken off. This can’t be happening. The game finishes 2-2, but the events on the field were only a distraction to the big story.

How is Cook? Will he be okay?

A week later and the news is released by the club. Worst fears are realised. Cook’s season is over. He’s done his ACL, and won’t be back for a long time. There is despair and there is despondency. Cook has 15 goals for the season – by far and away City’s top scorer. He’s been having a great campaign, doing Andy Cook things. A crutch the club cannot cope without. Between July 2022 and that moment, City had scored 196 league and cup goals. Cook had netted 65 of them and assisted a further 16. In other words, 41% of all Bradford City goals over that two and half year period had involved Cook.

These screenshotted tweets offer a useful barometer of the feeling of that moment amongst fans. The Bantams were ninth in the table, two points off the play offs, four points off the automatic promotion spots and 17 points behind leaders Walsall. But without Cook, we were surely screwed. The season is finished. Over. Done.  

As we all know of course, something remarkable has happened instead. Since Cook’s early withdrawal at Barrow, City have won 12 out of 16 games. They’ve set new club records and flown up the table, lying second right now, having just missed a great opportunity to top the division after losing at Gillingham. Still, they’re in a superb position to get promoted. To end six years of struggle in League Two.

And as they soar, they’re building a modern-day case study of Ewing Theory.

***

At this point we need to talk about what Ewing Theory actually is. And how it applies to more than just a 1999 NBA play off game, plus a habitually middling League Two football team. Because as much as its creation came from that story of Patrick Ewing, examples of it have been seen before and after those events, and it goes beyond even sport.

In the wake of the Knicks reaching the NBA play offs without Ewing, Cirilli and Simmons wrote a definition of the theory. Let’s take a look, and see if it applies to Bradford City and Cook right now.

Ewing Theory status is achieved if two crucial elements are in place.

1. A star athlete receives an inordinate amount of media attention and fan interest, and yet his teams never win anything substantial with him (other than maybe some early-round playoff series).

A tick for City here for sure. Cook’s exploits at City mean he is a well-known lower league player throughout the land. Media coverage of the Bantams has inevitably focused on his terrific goal record. But as we know, the team hasn’t done anything substantial with Cook leading the line beyond reaching the 2023 play offs (and losing at the first hurdle).

2. That same athlete leaves his team (either by injury, trade, graduation, free agency or retirement) – and both the media and fans immediately write off the team for the following season.

Again, a tick here, apart from the fact City were written off for this season rather than next.

Examples of these conditions coming together in American sports are plentiful. LA Lakers’ Elgin Baylor retired due to injury at the start of the 1972 season, with the NBA legend having never won a championship (when Baylor had played, the Lakers had a finals record of eight appearances, eight defeats). Without Baylor, the Lakers went on a record 33-game winning streak and won their first-ever NBA title in LA. Amazing. There’s also the story of how the Boston Celtics achieved blistering form when Rajon Rondo was injured in 2013. We’ll come back to him later.

Bringing it closer to home – and a sport that you and I both love, football – there are examples of Ewing Theory to be found too. Perhaps the best is Phillippe Coutinho, who spent five years starring for Liverpool when they were achieving little on the pitch. Coutinho was sold to Barcelona in January 2018, and later that season Liverpool reached the Champions League Final. The year after that, they won the European Cup, and the year after that they won the Premier League. In time, Coutinho’s exit was viewed as a blessing, allowing Liverpool to implement a more effective pressing style.

Only this week Liverpool were the victims of another potential Ewing Theory. PSG lost the services of the world’s best player, Kylian Mbappé, last summer. But they’re emerging from looking like a circus outfit to appearing to be genuine Champions League contenders, with victory at Anfield the clearest signal yet that they are a much better, more serious side for losing their star man.

Across Stanley Park and 20 years ago, Everton were a struggling side who finished 17th in the Premier League in 2003/04. Not a lot was going their way, but they had the supreme talents of a young Wayne Rooney. They sold Rooney to Manchester United at the start of the 2004/05 campaign – and remarkably went onto finish fourth in the Premier League, qualifying for the Champions League.

This is one of two Rooney examples we can use. The other was at international level, where he was a big player during the first half of the 2010s, but England themselves were largely awful. Gareth Southgate made the tough decision to leave Rooney out of the squad – and England went onto reach the semi finals of the 2018 World Cup, plus the final of the Euros in 2021.

International football is a good source of Ewing Theory, given the limitations nations have of replacing a star player, and the greater influence one maverick footballer can have over a national side. In 1992 Denmark had failed to quality for the Euros but were unexpectedly drafted in, due to war in Yugoslavia. Star forward Michael Laudrup has already booked a holiday and refused to cancel his plans. So Denmark went to the Euros without their talisman – and shocked everyone by winning the tournament. 

There is also the story of Spain – perennial underachievers, who ditched the superb Raul in 2006 and went onto win the next three major tournaments. Domestically there’s Brentford, who are thriving and scoring lots of goals this season, despite selling Ivan Toney. Aston Villa post-selling Jack Grealish. Perhaps even Manchester United in 1995/96, who – after ditching Mark Hughes, Paul Ince and Andrei Kanchelskis with no replacements, in the wake of losing the Premier League title – reclaimed their crown 12 months later. Even City have a previous example in Chris Waddle’s departure in 1997 actually leading to improved team performances and results – not to mention avoiding relegation when at one stage it looked hopeless..

In Simmons’ original 2001 article that told the world about Ewing Theory, he also cited popular culture examples. The rise of WWF wrestling after Bret “The Hitman” Hart signed for a rival federation. The rebirth of the 1980s rock band Van Halen after David Lee Roth’s departure. The TV show ER’s growth after George Clooney left.

The Ewing Theory idea of a team, organisation or person thriving when a big presence leaves also works in everyday life. For example, someone who is dumped by a partner, but uses that hurt as motivation to work out, eat healthier, lose weight, and ultimately feel like a better, more confident person. Without the heartache of that break-up, they might never have become what they now feel is a better version of themselves.

***

There are critics of Ewing Theory, partly because it doesn’t explore or account for individual circumstances and factors. And when you pay close attention to each and every example of it, there’s often more at play that might better explain what really happened.

Take those Coutinho and Grealish examples before. Did Liverpool and Aston Villa get better simply because they lost a star player, or was it more to do with the brilliance of coaching from Jurgen Klopp and Unai Emery? Were Everton a better football team for selling Rooney, or was it because they astutely spent the tidy profit they made from cashing in on a young footballer who, at the time, was of limited influence (just 15 goals over two seasons at Goodison Park)? Even Ewing Theory Patient Zero case study – Ewing himself – is a story with holes in it. For all the Knicks got to the final that season, they still lost.

Which means we have to go looking deeper. Especially when it comes to Andy Cook and Bradford City.

***

As the Bantams have flown over the last few weeks, it has become increasingly popular for some supporters to question whether it is because of ditching the support crutch of Cook and finding a way to function better. Indeed, the WOAP reader comment debate that accompanied our Cheltenham Town match report went down this route. As reader Steven J summarises, “There’s no doubt we’re playing better without Cook and the results we’ve achieved since his unavailability are sufficient proof.”

You can’t argue with that. But it definitely makes the majority of us shift in our seats that little bit uncomfortably. As a fanbase we adore Cook. His performances in claret and amber since signing in 2021 have been outstanding. He’s raced up the club’s all-time goalscorers list. At a time when the Bantams have largely struggled, we’ve all been so grateful to Cook for what he’s done. Without him, it’s not implausible to suggest City could have dropped out the EFL. How can we say we’re better off without him?

And yet, the aftermath of Cook’s injury is there for all to see. How would we cope without the guy who scored or set up 41% of our last 196 goals? Amazingly, by scoring as often as before. In the 27 league and cup games City played up to Cook’s injury, the Bantams had scored 40 goals. An average of 1.5 goals per game. Yet in the 17 games since Cook went down on the Barrow pitch, they’ve netted 25 goals. That’s an average of 1.5 goals per game too. What team in the land loses their best striker and yet still keeps scoring just as often?

In games Cook has started this season, City had a 42% win record. This is similar to the previous two seasons (47% win record with Cook in 2023/24, and 48% in 2023/23). Yet since Cook’s injury, City’s win record has shot up to 75%.

This is all nuts. City have hugely relied on Cook’s goals. He has been superb. And though we haven’t achieved what we wanted over the last two and a half seasons, the last person to blame for that is Cook. Yet without him, City are winning more games of football than before, and scoring just as many goals. It makes no sense. Which, at its heart, is what Ewing Theory is all about.

***

But dig deeper we must. And just like other Ewing Theories, there are other forces at work. That’s because might not be Barrow away that changed the trajectory of Bradford City’s season, but Barrow at home.

That Valley Parade meeting happened on the first Tuesday of December. 17 minutes in, a high ball was pumped forward towards Cook. He produced a late challenge on Dean Campbell that drew a yellow card, meaning he would have to serve a one-match ban.  

It was a big problem for manager Graham Alexander when at the time he already had plenty. The Bantams were faltering. The tactics and formation no longer working. Just three goals in the last six games against EFL opposition – and Cook, of course, had scored them all. That included rescuing a point for City that night against Barrow. And as Alexander planned for a weekend trip to high-flying Crewe without his leading scorer – and with just one win in the last eight games – the need for change was overwhelming.

So Plan B was used at Crewe – 3-5-2 switched to 3-4-3. Two central midfielders. Wide forwards, flanking a solo striker down the middle. No more number 10s. No more number 8s. City produced their best performance in weeks, earning a credible draw with 10 men. Plan B became the new Plan A.

It is that formation change that has changed City. And it probably wouldn’t have happened without Cook’s yellow card that night. The true Ewing Theory moment, perhaps. But as much as Cook’s one-game absence led to a rethink, it doesn’t mean that rethink had to exclude him. Cook returned to lead the line in the 3-4-3 the Tuesday after, where City achieved the first of four wins from their next five games. The roots of the recent heroics were formed here.

Interestingly, Cook only scored in two of those five games – a tap in against Stockport in the EFL Trophy, and a memorable brace in the Boxing Day 2-1 success over Port Vale – which suggested the change in dynamic was already leading to what followed. Because what we were starting to see then, and have certainly since, was a more rounded team approach.

Alexander had in the first half of the season arguably set up the team to get the most out of Cook, tolerating weaknesses (like Richie Smallwood being too exposed on his own) because Cook’s goal output justified the means, and gave City a top seven chance. Resetting without Cook, even for just one game, unlocked a more balanced approach. You could argue that if Cook hadn’t got injured and City were playing this way, he’d be scoring fewer goals than he was earlier in the season. But the Bantams would still just as successful as they have been before Saturday.

Successful because Smallwood has flourished once more by having a partner alongside him. Because Antoni Sarcevic and Bobby Pointon have thrived from playing higher up the park as wide forwards. Because Alex Pattison has found a home breaking from deep. Because the wing backs have been superb. And because defensively City have tightened up.

As part of the Swindon match report – the first victory of what is now a club-record home winning streak – I wrote, “In hindsight, the fact Cook was booked for a late challenge on Barrow’s Dean Campbell, in the last home game, could prove one of the most important moments of the season.” The 2,416 articles we’ve published over 13 years of WOAP is a library of bad predictions and hot takes that age badly, so please let me have this small one. Those clumsy words I wrote in December seem to be proving prophetic. (We had to get one right one day. Broken clocks and all that!)

***

What’s different because of the formation shift is City are more of a joined up team. They attack together, they defend together. They get the ball high up the pitch quickly, and press effectively to keep it there. A side that has habitually struggled to win any game of football where they have more of the ball than their opponents has found a way to pin opposition sides back. The January arrivals have taken a little bit of time to settle, but have largely added to all of this. (Evidently the shift to 3-4-3, and especially the timing of Cook’s injury, influenced January recruitment, which might have looked very different had City continued with the Cook-led 3-5-2.)

There is a wider spread of goals than before for sure. 12 different goalscorers in the 17 games since Cook was injured, with Sarcevic and Pattison leading the way with four each. In the 27 games before that, there had only been 11 non-Cook scorers, and only Olly Sanderson, Calum Kavanagh and Pointon managed more than two.

What’s interesting about a Cook-less City forward line is the lone striker feels the closest we might have to being a weak link. Kavanagh and Michael Mellon have battled gamely, but oddly look more effective when they don’t have the ball than when they do. Part of the success is how well they’re pressing – and you definitely have to wonder if Cook could do it to these levels, which might hinder the team if he couldn’t. But the big question to ask yourself is that if Cook was miraculously fit enough to play this weekend against Tranmere, would you put him back in the starting line up? I think most of us would.

Indeed, the surprise weekend loss at Gillingham – the result, perhaps, of one too many injuries, one too many Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday weeks – underlined that potentially problematic lack of a goalscorer. City didn’t create a lot of chances at Gillingham, but they rarely did when Cook was playing, and he would invariably find a way to score. In City’s last two visits to Gillingham, Cook had netted on both occasions. They missed that wiliness on Saturday.

That’s not to say that if Cook was now fit this tactical approach would work with him, and it’s certainly fair to say that City’s flying form of late is because of losing Cook’s services. The team has had to find a way to thrive without the guy who routinely saved their skin. And in doing so, they’ve transformed from a reasonably decent play off chasing outfit to the best team in the league right now.

That brings us back to Rajon Rondo, as promised, and the views of his team mate Kevin Garnett on why the Celtics were flying without their injured superstar.

“Rondo does so many different great things for this team. You can kind of get lackadaisical. It’s very similar to when you have someone cooking for you, and you’re expecting that every day. But as soon as you start to feed yourself, all of a sudden you start making these gourmet dishes. You start having more people to the house. And you never know you really possessed that. It’s kind of like that.”

Those words could easily sum up what’s happened to City without Cook, and the quirkiness of Ewing Theory. Bradford City are not a better football club with Cook injured on the sidelines. But the fact they had to adapt to life without him has given everyone the push to truly step up. To find a new level within themselves, and each other, that they perhaps didn’t know was there. To take on greater responsibility. To start making gourmet dishes. To cook without Cook.  

Against all odds and against all logic, we aren’t really missing Andy Cook on the field. But his influence is still absolutely huge, causing City to become a better version of themselves than we could ever have imagined.

Categories: Opinion

Tags: Andy Cook, BCAFC