Written by Jason McKeown (images by John Dewhirst)

This does absolutely nothing for the now crippling levels of promotion anxiety. Whether this is two points dropped, or a useful one gained, simply cannot be known right now. But what’s clear is that the margins for error have squeezed even tighter for Bradford City, and that it’s only just about still in their hands. If the Bantams are going to get promoted from here, they’re either doing it in the hardest of ways or because the anxiety got too much for everyone else.

Because this was a big step forward and then what felt like a pretty big step back. 1-0 up early in the second half, City were on course to go back on top of the division, and perhaps able to seal promotion from League Two as early as Monday. But such hopes were dashed as Notts County came roaring back to earn a point. There definitely won’t be a bank holiday promotion party at Chesterfield now. In fact, the chances of any promotion party taking place have slightly receded.  

To draw from a winning position rarely feels satisfying. To draw at home, when you’ve been so reliant on winning on your patch, is especially troubling. City set a new record for points at home in a single campaign here, but no one was in the mood for celebrating. Two-thirds of the remainder of the regular season take place away from the home comforts of Valley Parade. And if they continue their form on the road, they won’t be going up automatically. Which is why not winning here felt so, so painful.

But as the dust settles it’s difficult to make a case they deserve anything more than the draw they picked up. Especially with the self-inflicted nature of letting Notts County come back.

67 minutes were played, City a goal to the good, when the board went up to signal Aden Baldwin coming on for Antoni Sarcevic. A shuffling of the team followed that led to a central midfielder playing up front and a central defender playing in midfield. Two minutes later, Notts County scored. As bad substitutions go this wasn’t quite as infamous as Scott Banks off, Matty Platt on in the Carlisle play off game two years ago, but the impact might prove just as damaging in the final shake up.

Baldwin might well prove to be a decent defensive midfielder, but this didn’t seem like the opportune moment to experiment in finding out. Sarcevic was making his first start in six weeks, and it made sense to take him off at this point (he wasn’t at his sharpest all night). But reshuffling the team to such a degree was risky at best and ultimately backfired badly on Graham Alexander.

At the time, Jamie Walker and George Lapslie were kicking their heels on the bench, offering Alexander the chance to do a straight swap for Sarcevic. Instead, he pushed Brandon Khela forwards and Baldwin in the centre of midfield – with harmful results. Alexander realised the error of his ways and swapped it back around again 10 minutes later, but by then the damage had been done.

Alexander might argue, with justification, that Khela was having a mixed night, and only moments before the change had made a terrible error that McGoldrick didn’t punish. But if this was a direct response to that moment, it was a rash one.

What added to the craziness of the switch around was just how pivotal Khela was proving to the game. It was always going to be interesting to see how Alexander would compensate for the loss of Richie Smallwood, and he had floated the idea of changing formations in the build-up. Sticking with 3-4-3 and bringing Khela back – who had played alongside Smallwood for several weeks – was definitely the most logical move. But it was clear County had targeted the absence of the City skipper as something to exploit.

And why not? Smallwood’s influence on City this season is obvious. He’s very unlucky that the club launched their player of the season vote two days after his stupid red card at Swindon, as he is a worthy candidate to win the prize. Prior to the red card 14 minutes in at Swindon, Smallwood had played 100% of City’s league minutes this season. This follows 83.2% of the Bantams 2023/24 campaign and 97.2% of 2022/23. In total since signing in the summer of 2022, Smallwood has started 128 of City’s 136 league and play off games.

So going without him was uncharted territory and County knew that. They matched up City’s 3-4-3, but crucially tasked the wily McGoldrick with dropping back and making life uncomfortable for Smallwood’s stand in, Khela. When in the first three minutes of the game McGoldrick nutmegged Khela to set up a County attack, a marker was set. The 37-year-old McGoldrick showed great intelligence to sit on Khela and make the young midfielder’s life uncomfortable. You could almost hear the gnashing of teeth from Smallwood, watching on from the stands. How desperate he must have been to race down to the pitch, throw on a City shirt and confront the challenge McGoldrick and County were setting.

But in Smallwood’s considerable absence, Khela actually did a decent if not flawless job curbing the threat of the opposition. He shook off that shaky start and battled hard. The whole team did, in fact.

The first half was blood and thunder with patterns of play fluctuating between Notts County dominating possession and the Bantams pressing effectively when they attacked. We’ve seen these types of games before, where the opponents look tidy on the ball without offering a great threat on goal. This City side have no concern with an opposition side having much more of the ball than them. They lie in wait, ready to snatch possession and then get it up the pitch quickly. And when the ball is in the final third, they are so effective at pinning opponents back and keeping attacks going.

So it was no real surprise that City looked the likelier to score, even though they had to go through long spells without possession and maintaining a solid off the ball shape. Alex Pattison fired from a corner 10 minutes in. Brad Halliday and Sarcevic had half shouts at goal after some typical City pressing.

Bobby Pointon had the best chance of the lot, running onto a loose ball and striking a powerful low shot at goal that was well saved by Sam Slocombe. Calum Kavanagh was initially well shackled but did get a sight at goal when Pointon played him in, only for the in-form striker to slice his effort well wide. At one stage City won four corners in quick succession, but despite the best efforts of a vibrant Kop the ball just wouldn’t be sucked home.

Not that it was one-way stuff. County looked a cut above recent visiting sides to Valley Parade. The 19-year-old George Abbott, on loan from Spurs, impressed alongside the former Bantam Matty Palmer in the centre of the park. McGoldrick was always a threat, latching onto one loose ball and firing an effort just past the post.

Jodi Jones – who has had an injury-hit season – had quite the battle against Tayo Adaramola and fired just wide after a spell of heaving visitor pressure. A massive well done to Adaramola, who stood up to the considerable threat and ultimately triumphed. The sight of Jones switching sides after half time, then being taken off, was something the young Crystal Palace loanee should be immensely proud of. Like Khela, he was targeted and stood up brilliantly.  

What impressed most about Notts was their movement. They clearly feared the turnover threat of City on the break and did limit the risks taken, but the front three interchanged well. McGoldrick’s dropping deep approach not only targeted Khela but helped Abbott and Palmer outnumber City’s midfield two. In total over the full 90 minutes, Notts County had a considerable 65% possession.

In nine of City’s ten home games since the turn of the year, they went in at half time leading and went onto win the game. The fact the only occurrence they weren’t in front at the break ended in the Bantams’ only loss at home since October wasn’t the most encouraging of omens here. But it appeared we needn’t have worried. City started the second half strongly, with Kavanagh getting more and more into the game. He won a free kick out wide that saw Rod McDonald earn a yellow card – the second County player booked, after Matty Platt, as a direct result of Kavanagh’s running – and from the set piece City scored.

For Khela crossed the ball from outwide and Ciaran Kelly rose highest to flick the ball into the far corner of the net. A superb cross, a superb header – Kelly’s first league goal for the Bantams. The celebrations were loud and proud, and a glance at the live league table saw City once again sitting pretty at the top.

And initially they pushed from there. On top, oozing swagger, a home performance we’ve gladly become accustomed to over recent weeks. County retreated. They were on the ropes, and facing up to a defeat that would arguably have ended their top three hopes.

Until Alexander and City let them off the hook.

After Baldwin’s introduction and the shuffle round, City briefly lost their shape, lost their organisation, and paid a heavy price. McGoldrick once again came deep for possession, did a nice turn to get away from a slow to react Khela, before unleashing a magnificent curling effort from the edge of the box that flew into the top corner. It really was some strike. The immense home supporter noise was muted, and City never really recovered.

The continuation of the Baldwin central midfield trial saw City threatened to be overran. The belated going back to square one – by bringing on Jamie Walker for Jack Shepherd, which enabled Baldwin to drop back into defence and Khela drop back into midfield – did stop the bleeding. But the horse had already bolted from the stable. McGoldrick had two sights on goal and at the other end McDonald produced a great piece of last ditch defending to stop Pointon getting on the end of sub Michael Mellon’s cross. But the stats show that Kelly’s goal in the 53rd minute was City’s last attempt of the night. If anyone was going to nick it late on, it was probably Notts County.

So a heavy price is paid for more questionable subs from Alexander. Just like on Saturday, he made changes that saw City go too defensive too early. The game management from the manager and team has been so impressive in recent months, but suddenly seems to be lacking. And right now, in the immediate rawness of not winning, it all feels very damaging. City have enjoyed an incredible record under Alexander when they score first. Up until Saturday they had won 34 of their last 38 games where they went 1-0 up. But in the past week, they’ve lost five points from winning positions.

It all leaves us spending our Good Friday biting our nails as we follow the rest of League Two’s round of games. For a day at least, we become fans of Carlisle, Chesterfield, Tranmere and Harrogate. And some of our rivals in this tightest of promotion races probably will drop points, but there’s an awful lot riding on Walsall’s collapse in form proving permanent. If both the Saddlers and Doncaster emerge from winnable fixtures with three points (or Walsall don’t win but are victorious in their 12.30 kick off on Monday), the Bantams will take to the field at Chesterfield no longer in the top three.

Which is why the anxiety and tension is becoming so unbearable. The loss at Swindon was mired in all sorts of controversy and talking points, but the biggest concern is to what level the events in Wiltshire will haunt City during the promotion run in. Here, the team tried to show there were no lingering effects and played reasonably well, but it was difficult to escape the conclusion that they would have won this game if Smallwood had been available. Certainly the Doncaster manager Grant McCann – who was present in the stands to scout two sides his team will face in the run in – will have left Valley Parade smelling blood.

Bradford City suddenly look vulnerable in so many ways. After that incredible run of 15 wins in 21 games shot them up the table, it’s now just two wins from their last eight matches. They surely need to win at least two of their remaining three games, which means defeating at least one of Chesterfield (second in the form table for the last eight games and still with a play off chance) and Doncaster (fourth in the league). A reminder: City have won just five of their 21 away matches this season, losing to every side in the top seven they’ve travelled to so far this season.

The trajectory is just horrible. City are not in a nosedive, but are clearly not the force they were in January and February. Spluttering in the slow lane and leaving themselves in grave danger of being overtaken. Which is why the promotion anxiety levels for everyone connected with the club are going through the roof.   

Categories: Match Reviews

Tags: 2024/25, BCAFC, League Two, Notts County