By Jason McKeown
Well, if nothing else they’re building up quite the collection of ‘what ifs’. From agonising injuries, illness, penalty appeals, disallowed goals, lost winning positions, substitutions that don’t go to plan, and of course one much-debated red card.
If Bradford City earn victories in their next two games to seal promotion – or succeed with their fall back option of winning the play offs – those ‘what ifs’ will be mere footnotes to a successful season, and we won’t waste much time trying to remember them all. But if they don’t go up…blimey, are we all in for a summer of mental self-torture.
They still have such a fantastic opportunity, and yet it’s hard to shake off the fear it’s slowly slipping through their fingers. And if agony ultimately lies ahead, it will be difficult not to conclude we only have ourselves to blame.
Before Boxing Day and early March, the Bantams picked up 38 points from a possible 45. Since that thrilling night where they played Cheltenham off the park to go second, it’s just nine points from a possible 27. They’ve slowed, stuttered and stalled, occasionally flickered back into life, and then slowed, stuttered and stalled again. Passing up the opportunity to wrap up the league, and allowing others to overtake them. They’re not playing badly at all, and yet 90-minute performances have been a rarity.
Somehow, City remain in the driving seat. But with a trip to new leaders Doncaster to navigate on the same afternoon fourth-placed Walsall entertain lowly Accrington, there is growing doubt they will complete the job.
Many of the ‘what ifs’ are obvious, but there’s perhaps one, already largely forgotten ‘if only’ that occurred just before the brilliant post-Christmas run. Rewind to Swindon – no, not that game, the home one – and an enforced substitution on the hour.
That was when Corry Evans had to withdraw through injury, on what was his full league debut for the Bantams. Evans began the season as a free agent and was brought in by Graham Alexander to cover for injuries, plus the deadline day decision to let Alex Gilliead leave. A popular, highly rated player at his previous club Sunderland, the only reason Evans had departed Wearside was significant injury problems that he was struggling to get over. If the 34-year-old could get fit again, he could play a key role for Bradford City.
And the glimpses we saw of Evans showed his potential to a force at this level. Some promising sub cameos, a solid full debut in the FA Cup victory over Aldershot, and an excellent showing away to Stockport County in the EFL Trophy, on a night Richie Smallwood was rested. The Swindon home game followed that Stockport triumph, and Evans kept his place alongside a recalled Smallwood in City’s new-look 3-4-3 approach. The pair looked good together, as the Bantams led in an important game. But then Evans went down injured on the hour, hobbled off, and those old doubts returned. It was the last time we saw Evans in a City shirt as he was released in January, rocking up in the National League and Oldham where fitness has remained a problem.
An unfit Evans clearly wasn’t the solution, but if he could only have got back to the fitness levels of earlier in his career, he might have been a really important part of the squad in a similar way to how Paul Huntington has provided valuable back up.
And it’s also where there is such a pertinent ‘what if’ right now. Smallwood has largely spent the season offering reasons to believe there was limited value in devoting squad resources into having a solid back up for him. He never gets injured, and shows remarkable levels of consistency. At least he did, until his foolish actions at Swindon, where he went in for a tackle he didn’t need to make and was red carded for the overzealous nature of the challenge.
When Smallwood was ever-present for City, over this League Two season they have scored the first goal on 21 occasions – from which they won 18, drawn three (Cheltenham, Colchester and Barrow), and lost zero. 57 points from a possible 63 – or 78% of their entire points total, up to going to Swindon.
But including Smallwood’s red card at the County Ground, City have scored the first goal in their last three games – from which they’ve drawn two and lost one. In successive away games, they’ve been 3-1 up and yet not gone onto win. It’s two points from a possible nine. Seven dropped points from a winning position. They would have been promoted by now if they’d seen those victories out.
The loss of Smallwood at Swindon and over the last two-and-three-quarter games was clearly huge. He is the guy who sits in front of the back three, winning back possession and starting moves. He sets the tempo and the standards for the team, and provides composure and assurance. City’s game management had been excellent all season, and a large part of that came from the City captain.
We can debate the substitute decisions Alexander has made in the last three games and largely agree the City boss has got it wrong. But part of the problem is he’s trying to find a way to see out games without the luxury of having a pure holding midfielder in his starting line up – and without a holder on the bench. Hence questionable decisions like throwing on extra defenders or trying out Aden Baldwin and Romoney Crichlow as defensive midfielders. City clearly need to be more conservative in the closing stages, but they’re not able to keep men behind the ball and win back possession high enough up the park, inviting pressure on a backline that is suffering from the lack of Smallwood protection and looks too exposed.
Which is why it’s a shame that Evans wasn’t able to convince with his fitness. Why he is no longer at the club. And look, it probably was for the best, and without Evans’ departure maybe the talented Brandon Khela wouldn’t have been recruited in January. But despite the commendable way Khela has filled in for Smallwood of late, the 19-year-old’s box to box upbringing would suggest he lacks the same level of education, experience and discipline of Smallwood to perform the same role. Khela, like Alex Pattison, looks well suited to playing alongside Smallwood, where he can sit deep and break forward knowing his captain will provide cover.
In hindsight, it seems that City didn’t make the greatest use of the extra investment in January when it came to strengthening the squad. Fears Andy Cook needed better replacing have faded with Calum Kavanagh’s excellent form, but Tommy Leigh, George Lapslie and Michael Mellon haven’t sufficiently shifted the dial. Crichlow doesn’t quite look the same force as he was during his excellent 2022/23 loan spell. Joe Hilton has swapped the Blackburn Rovers bench for the Bradford City one (though having that cover is definitely welcome). Khela and Tayo Adaramola are the only January arrivals you can argue as a significant success.
And with so much of the resources devoted to forwards who can’t be trusted to start, City neglected to bring in adequate defensive midfield cover for Smallwood. That didn’t seem to matter much until the red card moment, but it’s left City with a major problem at the most crucial of moment in the season. And there’s still one more game to get through before Smallwood’s return.
Maybe Evans was never the answer, but it seemed that City spent January preparing for all eventualities except the loss of their inspirational skipper. If City don’t get promoted, Smallwood is clearly on course to be made a scapegoat, but the club can also share in the blame for going into the second half of the season with only one bona fide midfield ball winner.
And that could ultimately prove to the biggest ‘what if’ of the lot.
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A succinct appraisal of the situation we find ourselves in with no cover for Smallwood’s absence. This echoes my fears during the season. Fears I’ve tried to ignore. Our captain has a propensity to pick up bookings and was always likely to be suspended during the season. What was unexpected was a three match absence. Without Khela the manager continues to try inexperienced players, trying various players who are new to the role. This I find mystifying. In Calum Johnson we have a player who WAS a holding midfielder, till he was belatedly converted to defence.
Now a word about City’s recent woes in matches….I think that the most significant phrase in the article is “They’re not playing badly at all, and yet 90-minute performances have been a rarity.” Having watched all the matches that’s exactly what happens. For an hour there’s slick passing and movement with a high press putting the opposition under pressure. then that disappears and we cede midfield completely, choosing a defensive line just outside our own area.
For once I’m not sure I agree. Surely Khela is the cover you’re asking for. You can’t expect a Smallwood clone!
I tend to agree. There’s a different way of playing with Khela but had he not been ill on Saturday we would have seen out 3 points.
I also think it’s a travesty should Smallwood, our player of the season, be looked at in any way as a scapegoat. While I do still feel it was a red card, the more I’ve watched it the more I feel he’s unlucky.
In my opinion the ultra conservative substitutions have cost us more than Smallwood’s absence. GA the latest in a long line of City managers who try to sit on leads rather than trust the players and tactics that got them the lead in the first place. Khela has been great but GA clearly doesn’t trust him, preferring to play centre halves out of position instead of him (or wingbacks for Pointon/Pattison at Swindon) in order to try not to concede, which has predictably failed three times in three games. I don’t buy the illness excuse, he was having a great game and was full of energy.
I sincerely doubt any player would sign purely as cover for Smallwood to play in exactly the same style when he misses so few matches. Its just not realistic to expect the club to have a carbon copy waiting in the wings. The answer lies in tweaking roles and responsibilities with the players available. The most frustrating thing is GA has found the right formula to cover for Smallwood but hasn’t backed his own team selection at key points in the last three games, worrying more about what the opposition do to us when he has put together the best attacking side we’ve seen in decades.
If we miss out on automatic promotion it will be in game decisions which have cost us, not the lack of a Smallwood mk2 in the squad.
Really???
”The best attacking side we’ve seen in decades.”
Leon, I enjoyed reading your post but you lost me the dubious attacking claim.
Reality, City are the best of a very poor lot in L2.
Seeing is Believing
I keep seeing this, that this is a poor league.
Has it occurred to anyone that it’s actually a very strong league? One in which every team in the league can challenge you. One that’s incredibly difficult to get out of.
Yes, there were 3 or 4 teams that were too good for everyone last season, and scored a zillion goals each. It doesn’t necessarily make the league as a whole any better though.
I’m confident we can give Doncaster a real game on Saturday. Smallwood’s absence has been unfortunate, but I actually think we’ve managed reasonably well (barring the chaos of the Swindon game itself). Khela is not Smallwood, but he’s a pretty damn good version of himself. Smallwood might have kept the shackles on McGoldrick last week, but then again he might not. But for Khela’s illness on Saturday, plus Baldwin and Adaramola’s injuries, I think we’d have been OK. That’s just unfortunate, albeit we still could have done a better job of seeing it out.
Make no mistake, Doncaster will be edgy on Saturday. If we can put them under pressure and keep everyone healthy for 90 minutes, we have a big chance. Everything could look very different again all of a sudden come 5.00 on Saturday.
Not in terms of sheer volume of goals obviously, but in terms of quality of goals. Goals that make you purr. Goals that you want to watch back over and over. The kind of stuff you watch football for, or I do anyway.
Both Pointon and Pattison’s goals on Saturday were exemplary team goals.
Hi Leon – agree that our best chance of automatic promotion is to try and play as much attacking football as possible rather than attempting to be defensive, in both the remaining games. Also agree that Khela is a very good player.
Agree. Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we been winning in all the games since Smallwood got sent off until the substitutions were made?
“I don’t buy the illness excuse, he was having a great game and was full of energy.”
Alexander would look very silly in front of the team and staff if he went around lying to the media like that about the reasons for his decisions. Absolutely no chance that this is true.
Substitutions cost us! We need all the squad capable of playing 90+ mins to finish the game off with an high tempo! Substitutions unbalances the team and players playing out of position. Two games to get it right and No Fear of both opposition. This manager at this level has the credentials to be successful. Come on the City we can do it! Believe in yourselves!
An interesting article. I was, like many, in the grumpy camp about Smallwood- patchy on set pieces, too many yellows, often played (especially in the Hughes era) in a role that he didn’t fit. But I read an interesting stat a couple of weeks back, that he’d put in more tackles than any other player in all 4 professional leagues.
But I’m going to challenge a lot of the negativity of your article. You point to a stumbling set of recent performances- true, but so so has every other team round us, hence, we’ve maintained a top 3 spot for weeks now. IF- and it is a big IF- we beat Doncaster, we would potentially go top again, if by more than a single goal margin.
I think there is too much criticism of Alexander. Your article is heavy on eagle eye hindsight. In January, there were more voices calling for a replacement striker, than for a Smallwood understudy- our acceptance of one but not the other, is due to subsequent strong attacking form, and a sudden red card.
And, whilst I agree that Alexander sometimes makes substitutions that don’t work, there seems to be swirling criticism of him taking Khela off on Monday- when it seems clear that he flagged at half time he was struggling, and Alexander bent over backwards to keep him on as long as possiible. His other changes- Sarcovic, Adaramola, were fitness/ injury enforced.
I think if we fail to get over the line, it will mostly be down to injuries, not managerial failures. I have no idea where we will be a week Saturday…but I will nail my colours to the mast now, and say that Alexander has been fantastic for us, and is the best manager we’ve had since the departure of the Special One to Bolton
If Graham Alexander gets us up via automatic promotion he will move clear above Parkinson and move into the McFarland/Jewell bracket, but below Trevor Cherry. Automatic promotion option trumps finishing 7th and some cup runs by a mile.
As an aside, the fact the club hasn’t openly honoured Cherry in any way by naming a stand, anything after him is scandalous.
Has Lapslie been a failure? Four goals in two lots of two and winning player of the month for league 2 would suggest otherwise. He’s a player with a lot to offer who has been a more than adequate, replacement for Pogo and Sarcevic when required, it’s a real shame we haven’t had him all season or we wouldn’t have had to come from so far back.