By Jason McKeown
This is everything we wanted, really. We’ve spent years longing for these kind of moments. This degree of high stakes. Season after season of meaningless mid-table finishes or worse, making the final few fixtures seem dull as we ponder our failings and look on jealously at others experiencing end of season dramas. This looked like it would be much more fun – and certainly more meaningful.
Yet in the thick of this promotion run-in – which is about to have its penultimate, possibly decisive weekend – it’s about endurance rather than enjoyment. The prize is so big that not claiming it from here would be absolutely devastating. It would be exciting it it wasn’t so serious.
It was largely overlooked that Monday’s 3-3 draw with Chesterfield mathematically confirms the Bantams have a minimum play off spot, should they fall short of top three. But no one wants to go through that sort of drama again. The Bantams have spent the last 71 days sitting inside the automatic promotion places. They just need to stay there another nine days. Please.
The good news, I guess, is the ordeal is nearly over. In fact, there’s a sequence of results this weekend that would mean the Bantams are promoted to League One by 5pm on Saturday. To do that, they have to beat Doncaster and Walsall must lose at home to 21st-place Accrington. More realistically, perhaps, if City can emerge from this weekend still residing in the top three, they’ll be in a great position to finish the job at home to Fleetwood next Saturday. All of which means the trip to Doncaster is more about carefully making sure they don’t fall through the ice.
Looking at the shake-up
Remarkably this six-team race for the automatics still have six riders. Wimbledon haven’t won in three, Notts County followed up their impressive display at Valley Parade by losing at home to Cheltenham, but both still have an outside shot of the top three. Doncaster clearly had the best Easter weekend of every challenger – the only side in the race to win any Easter fixture (and they did it twice), as Port Vale, City and Walsall stumbled.
Let’s look at the table, but more importantly the maximum points each team could achieve from here.
We can see here that it’s basically all but over for Notts County (they’d have to win both remaining games, hope City lose both theirs, that Walsall gain no more than a point and Wimbledon lose one of their remaining games to go up on goal difference) and Wimbledon (similar to Notts County, but could still squeeze in if the Bantams draw one and lose one). Neither Notts or Wimbledon can catch Doncaster and Port Vale.
For Walsall, the margin for error is bigger but it’s out of their hands. They could go up drawing one and losing the other if City lose both their fixtures (and Wimbledon don’t win both their games), but realistically have to beat Accrington at the weekend, ahead of a final day trip to Crewe who are almost mathematically out of the play off hunt. If Walsall draw with Accrington and City lose at Doncaster, Walsall will move to third on goal difference and would just need to match City’s final day result. If City win at Donny in the lunchtime kick off, Walsall would realistically have to win both their remaining games to have a chance of overtaking anyone.
As for Port Vale and Doncaster, the maximum points total in the table above shows just how much it is in their hands. If Doncaster beat City, they are up (and it also means City can’t win the league). A Port Vale victory away to Wimbledon means they’d need just a point in their last game (at home to 17th-placed Gillingham), or they’d be up anyway if Walsall fail to win both their remaining fixtures. If Port Vale draw and City beat Doncaster, all three teams will be tied on 78 points (a single goal victory for the Bantams would mean City and Donny have the same goal difference too).
It all sets up a dramatic afternoon this weekend. That four of the top six play each other is remarkable, and the 12.30pm games between Wimbledon and Port Vale, Doncaster and City are the epitome of six-pointers. When the dust settles, Walsall kick off at 3pm against an Accrington side that still need one more point to confirm their Football League status. Notts County go to Harrogate and may find they’re out of the run-in before they kick off, but given they only have a three point cushion inside the play off spots they will still have a lot to play for.
On the final day, there’s the small matter of Notts County playing Doncaster, which may or may not have a lot riding on it. As we’ve already covered, City welcome Fleetwood, Port Vale entertain the Gills and Walsall go to Crewe. In the less likely event Wimbledon still have a chance on the final day, they will need to beat Grimsby at Blundell Park.
It’s all hideously nerve wracking, tension-laced and with so many different permutations. Good luck sleeping on Friday night. But just remember – we wanted this.
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aaargh amiright!
I tipped us to win the league pre season and am sticking with it. We can beat Donnie overturn the goal difference and beat Fleetwood. I don’t think Vale will get maximum.
It’ll be “fun” to find out.
I was at Swindon. Them and Chesterfield were a ‘mare. We “shouldn’t” need to do it this way if there is a big book of “should” anywhere. And if it in reality gave us more than it took away.
you’re spot on that this is nail biting excitement and it should be viewed as a positive thing.
Whether Walsall ourselves or port Vale finish 4th feelings of failure will hang over the minds of the fans and players alike. Conversely a team finishing 7th will be delighted with a play off chance, and more likely to reach the final than the 4th placed opposition.
Let’s be positive. We can win these 2 games and not worry about 4th. Come on City.
Remember that Doncaster can also finish 4th on 78 or 79 points, if City beat them and Fleetwood, Port Vale win one further match Walsall hit 80 points
Heck, if you are enjoying the uncertainty of the moment then bring on the playoffs and the lottery to climax the season!!
I’ve said it numerous times this season, City are the best of a very poor lot in L2.
City should have sewn up an auto promotion spot by now and no excuses are acceptable.
Injuries have been an issue but the squad size and depth have minimized the impact of those issues.
Seeing is Believing
what’s the weather like in Canada today.
Why don’t you just p*ss off. You’d revel in it if city miss out. Then you’d start all your weird anti Sparks rhetoric on here and in the t&a comments.
I pity the sad existence your life must be. In fact I thought this p*llock had been banned from here WOAP owners?
I’m replying to Phil W/Woody Cannock or whatever the creep calls themselves not you old Bantam
Boring trolling. Obviously that was not anybody’s point.
I guess it’s the old adage, ‘be careful what you wish for’. But seriously, I still think that whatever happens at Doncaster on Saturday, it’ll be us & not Walsall (or others) who will be playing League 1 football. For what it’s worth, I also believe we can go to Doncaster & get the 3pts. Who’d have ever dreamt we would have beaten Aston Villa over two legs, or go to Stamford Bridge & knock Chelsea out of the Cup (with ease)?
It’ll be nerve shedding nail biting & heart pounding stuff for sure, but surely, surely this is OUR promotion year?
C’mon City, one last push. Up the Bantams!!!
I guess it’s the old adage, ‘be careful what you wish for’. But seriously, I still think that whatever happens at Doncaster on Saturday, it’ll be us & not Walsall (or others) who will be playing League 1 football. For what it’s worth, I also believe we can go to Doncaster & get the 3pts. Who’d have ever dreamt we would have beaten Aston Villa over two legs, or go to Stamford Bridge & knock Chelsea out of the Cup (with ease)?
It’ll be nerve shedding nail biting & heart pounding stuff for sure, but surely, surely this is OUR promotion year?
C’mon City, one last push. Up the Bantams!!!
I keep saying it but I love this. I love being involved in the uncertainty and the drama. It’s the whole reason for following football. Even if I was a Liverpool fan I’d be a little disappointed that nobody has put up a fight.
I’ve never understood those that say the best way to go up is in the playoffs IF you can guarantee you win. The best way to go up is in the playoffs because you can’t! That said I definitely do want us to avoid the playoffs this year.
I also really enjoy watching this team, I’m sad it’s coming to an end and that we didn’t get to see more of the box midfield – Smallwood/Patto/Sarce/Pointon – playing together in a league they are simply too good for. That said I want to see them test themselves in a higher division next year.
However, I am going to be a bit disappointed if we don’t go into the last day having beaten Doncaster by a goal and Port Vale drawing with Wimbledon so that all 3 of us just have to go out and score as many goals as possible.
This is GA’s chance to script a career defining team talk … and I certainly hope he’s rehearsing it as we speak!
Come on City!!
I didn’t want this! It’s far too stressful watching City panic and fall apart every game. I wanted to sweep all aside and cruise to the title!
It’s too stressful to enjoy, I’m still too angry at Smallwood but I’d love it if we socked it to McCann and Doncaster. They think they’ve got us beat already, we’re all fearing the worst. It can only go one way… A magnificent City victory!
Let’s see what GA and the boys can do 💪
Or, of course, the psychological trauma of us blowing the last two games could linger, and adversely affect our performances against Doncaster and Fleetwood, causing us to drop out of the automatic promotion places. The consequent anti climax and loss of momentum then results in us failing in the play offs.
As a long standing City fan, I’ve learned that if you always look on the dark side, you can never be disappointed……
As a lifelong fan I find that I experience painful disappointment on the regular whatever shade of side I look on. Gillingham away, Barnet away, Cambridge away, Wimbledon away… There’s definitely more to get out of that last minute 5-4 disappointment at Swindon than that nil nil draw away disappointment at Colchester about 12 years ago for example.
Dark side or not you are so often disappointed that I choose to be positive under any circumstances that permit it as an option at any level, and be disappointed only when forced to by things that happened.
Ironically I just realised I am saying”seeing is believing” – only in relation to negativity not positivity! LOL
i forgot Oxford away and the league one playoff. They were special.
it says here “share your view”
I’m not trying to be intentionally negative or provocative but my honest view right now is that ii don’t see city winning at Doncaster. I think they’re the best team in the division not us. And I think their talismanic striker will torment us. As painful as it is to even write that. I can see this happening. As for the last game of the season. Well. It depends what’s left in the tank mentally. So I said this before I’ll say it again. I hope Walsall keep dropping points.
I hope I’m looking back at this comment on Saturday night saying oh how wrong o was!….
I have always told my lad about the ‘Bradford roar’, and he’s always bemoaned the lack of atmosphere at Valley Parade. Well, hold onto your hat lad, ’cause when we need to beat Fleetwood to get automatic promotion the roof will be blown off!
Come on City!
We’re more than capable of winning two games (cup finals). GA just has to get the tactics right and the player’s have to believe they can do it! We need that mental strength to get over the line. Nothing to fear at Doncaster. It’s the City way! If we just need to win at home against Fleetwood I think the fans can help with their roar!