By Jake Verity

It’s hard to remember the last time there was such a huge gap between Bradford City games in league football. Not in terms of quality, or relative positions in the league, but in the time between games.

A TV tie away at Rotherham followed by a cancelled match against Lincoln (due to the international break) has left us 16 days between league games. A painfully long wait, partially ameliorated by an EFL Trophy game against Everton U21s tomorrow.

On paper, this break is incredibly useful. Injured players have time to recover. Our wallets get a breather. And so do the wider team, who have had the chance to regroup ahead of what will be a once again busy fixture list going into winter.

A busy September, with a hard-fought win against Blackpool at the end showed for sure that this was a team that needed a rest. A fighting display that saw City escape South Yorkshire with a share of the spoils, after recovering a two goal deficit away at Rotherham. But you can’t help but think that had we been at full-strength, and had a kinder run up to the game, it might have been three points.

The style of football that we’ve played so far has undoubtedly been high press, high effort and high impact. It’s also been, no doubt, highly tiring for all players involved. But, it’s hard to escape the feeling that in many ways, this long break has been a frustrating one, despite all the obvious good.

That’s because momentum matters in football. Especially when you have a side as good as our team has been over the past few years, and in such a rich vein of form. But it’s more than that. It’s just been so fun going through the turnstiles over the last few weeks and months.

Putting the mileage in has been far more of a pleasure, than a chore. Sitting through games has been engaging rather than enraging. And this squad have really endeared themselves to us as supporters, by putting in the hard graft we want to see from a City squad.

Top of the table tests

So, the league fixture list as we return from this break, is an interesting one. There are three fixtures between our return and an FA Cup first-round tie, which we will find out more about tonight.

Barnsley at home, Stevenage away, and Lincoln at home. So 8th, 1st and 6th. Tough going.

City have effortlessly swept away many of the teams they’ve played in the league this season (and two Championship sides for that matter); or fought hard for a share of the spoils four times on the road, with the exception of a poor performance against Doncaster Rovers.

But then again; should there be anything to fear at all?

On paper, this is the second trickiest triple test yet that the buoyant Bantams have been through. After all, it is not long since back-to-back games against Huddersfield and Cardiff, both touted as promotion contenders, who will no doubt be up there come the end of the season. Yet in both those fixtures, City led 3-0 after 50 minutes or so. Despite conceding late goals, both games felt reasonably effortless.

And we had the chance to rotate the squad afterwards and take a breather against… Champions League Newcastle United. A game that proved a good chance for Andy Cook to get back up to speed, after all… (yes, they were absolutely incredible!)

There has been much made of the top of League One being weak. Presumably because up until the last few days, two of the then-top three sides ( Stevenage and Lincoln) have smaller stadiums, and we haven’t been in this division for a while.

But a league is only as strong as the teams playing in it, and those teams are only as good as results can suggest. Put simply, it’s nonsense and fairly insulting to criticise any of those teams at the top currently, who are deservedly there on merit. And after all, Cardiff City and Stockport are now sitting back in the top four again…

And don’t forget, it often tends to be the case that in League One, the teams lurking around the Play-Offs at this stage come on stronger later down the line.

Because we’re playing three of the top eight over the next few weeks. I thought I’d have a look back at League One during the 2016/17 season on today’s date (13th October). Now look, that season was the closest we got to the Championship in recent history. But what’s absolutely fascinating is that my theory above proved true… and also history in a way seems to be repeating itself. The table read like this, 12 games in:

Now sure, we’ve played one less game at this stage and already have the same amount of points (bodes well).

But what’s fascinating is that season you had a team managed by Graham Alexander who nobody expected to do particularly well, flying at the top of the division. You had a Bradford City side in second place who were unbeaten at home (and managed to do so that entire season).

Both of those teams went on to achieve play-off football. But it was, of course, Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United who won the league by 100 points that season, and Graham Alexander’s Scunthorpe who missed out on the automatics by just a few points to Phil Parkinson’s Bolton Wanderers.

An interesting case study, perhaps? Let’s hope it suggests we truly are in for a good season. But also, Alexander, and ourselves, have learned some lessons since then.

Many of us will have seen that terrifying graphic before the Rotherham game about the success the top team after 10 games has had over the past five years, in more recent history, come the end of the season (and yes, technically that’s Stevenage). But it’s all for nothing should we stop winning games of football.

There’s a good saying in football, win at home and draw away, and you’ll be up there.

If we win three quarters of our remaining home games (which by the way is not an impossible expectation based on our form, but is still a tall order) and can manage just six wins on the road, we’ll end up on 78 points, enough for a sixth-place finish last season. That’s not even thinking about draws. And yes, I know it’s a tall order, but it shows how achievable success could be if Valley Parade can stay strong.

Automatic promotion might be a different story. The average needed is 92 points over the last five seasons. And it’s a number that the Bantams have only ever exceeded once before. The highest total we’ve managed over the last 25 years is 80 in the 2015/16 season, five points off the automatics. We were also seven points off the automatics in that 2016/17 season on 79 points.

For a newly promoted side, all this could be way too much. But anything is possible!

Growing expectations

There’s a big difference between expectation and hope.

One is the thing you think should happen, the other is what you’d like to happen. The way this season has started though, naturally, these two separate concepts have started to merge.

On paper to a casual football fan, there’s absolutely no reason that this Bradford City squad should be thought of naturally as a promotion contender. We struggled to get out of League Two for far too long, and left it late to do so.

But also on paper, there’s absolutely every reason this Bradford City squad should be thought of as a promotion contender. We have a good squad, a great manager and results are coming. With every game they win, every result ground out, and loss avoided, it’s hard to not think about what could be.

I will stick to something I’ve been saying since last summer. This squad, football club, and City are moving in the right direction. It’s with immense credit to everybody involved. Ownership, leadership, players and fans. I truly do think there’s every chance of Championship football if we continue with this quiet confidence, never say die attitude, and commitment to giving 110% on the pitch every game.

The fans are backing the club up and down the country in some numbers. The last few months haven’t been easy on the wallet of any Bradford City fan, with huge followings to Newcastle, Cardiff, and Rotherham in quick succession after big crowds during midweek trips to both Blackburn and Stoke. The commitment has been off the charts, and rewarded by on-the-pitch performances we can only admire.

And the backing will no doubt continue. A sell-out crowd against Stevenage, a big push all the way to Plymouth and a mega-allocation of nearly 5,000 at Bolton (on sale today) is something to be excited about. Add in those big games at Valley Parade, and there’s a lot to look forward to.

For now, that’s all this needs to be. A football club doing well. Keeping us entertained. That we can watch on a weekend, or trudge through the turnstiles on a Tuesday night to see.

But, it might just be more than that. This might be a season to savour. So now, the real test comes…

Categories: Opinion

Tags: BCAFC