By Alex Lester

As someone who spends a significant amount of time analysing the stock market, understanding the underlying trend is everything.

At its core, every market move can be viewed through three lenses: the primary trend, which defines the dominant direction over months and years; the secondary trend, which captures the counter-moves and corrections that unfold over weeks to months; and the minor trend, the day-to-day fluctuations that add noise but often hint at shifts in momentum before they appear in the bigger picture.

For Bradford City fans, there’s comfort in knowing that if you zoom out, the trend is unmistakably bullish – far more so than most of us dared imagine at the start of the season.

After securing automatic promotion back in May, City’s rise has felt like a powerful, sustained rally. An epic push higher punctuated by only a handful of minor pullbacks along the way.

But over recent weeks, something under the surface looks to have shifted.

With Andy Cook and Alex Pattison’s departure, bearish rhetoric has grown louder, culminating in a crescendo following the weekend’s 1-0 defeat against those down the road.

Outside of the usual murmurings that surface at this time of year, the stats paint an equally disturbing picture.

On November 8 City held the highest xG per 90 in League One, with an average of 1.59. Today, they sit 5th in the xG standings, having recorded an xG per 90 of just 0.94 over the last 11 league matches – signalling an alarming 40% decline. Add to that, City have now lost more league games in January than they did throughout the entirety of August, September and October combined – again signalling a drop-off that’s difficult to ignore.

So the question has to be asked: are we witnessing a shift in the primary trend, or something as benign as a reversion to the mean in a wider, bullish structure?

At the time of writing, the trend is still very much ‘up and to the right’, with City on-track to finish the season in the playoff positions on a forward-looking PPG basis. (Source: @ppgprophet)

Should this change over the coming weeks and months, then sure we can start talking about some potential downside – but for now, the trend holds true.

But here’s the thing about trends: they rarely hold up without a catalyst. In market terms, these catalysts typically arrive in the form of earnings, new products, or a shift in the broader narrative.

In football, one of the most powerful catalysts is far simpler – a new face through the door.

Which brings us to the January transfer window.

If the trend is to be defended – or even accelerated – then the market’s next data point matters more than any single result. In City’s case, my view is that the rest of the season won’t be decided by the result at Sincil Bank or at home to Doncaster Rovers, but a decision made by those higher up the club. 

And in January, that decision almost always centres around one position.

The number nine.

For the majority of this season, Stephen Humphrys has operated as a lone striker, with Graham Alexander offering little evidence that this is set to change any time soon.

For all the talk of recruitment, the reality is that Humphrys is unlikely to be displaced – making any links to the likes of Jatta or Langstaff feel more like speculation than strategy. Added to that, as arguably City’s highest earner and the club’s marquee signing of the summer, replacing him outright in January would represent a sharp pivot – financially, politically, and tactically – that few clubs at this level are willing to make mid-season.

But that doesn’t mean the position is a closed book.

What recent performances have underlined is that Humphrys isn’t a natural target man. He thrives on movement, channels, and space – not on being the lone reference point with his back to goal. In his current role as a lone striker, we aren’t utilising his talents.

In that context, the more subtle catalyst may not be a headline signing, but a supporting presence. Someone willing to do the work Andy Cook once made his own: winning first contacts, battling for territory, and turning half-chances into goals.

Could Ethan Wheatley be the answer here? Maybe, maybe not.

Were this to play out, the obvious trade-off is structural. Freeing Humphrys from his role as much-maligned target man and introducing a true focal point likely means a shift away from the 5-2-3 that has propelled City into the top four. A narrower 5-3-2 – last seen in League Two – or a variation that replaces two wide forwards with a target man and dual number 10s, potentially Humphrys alongside Sarcevic or Pointon, becomes the alternative.

Were that to play out, City’s reliance on wide players would ease, offering much-needed rotation to an attacking unit that is beginning to look leggy. It would also place greater emphasis on the wing-backs – an area that has quietly strengthened in recent weeks, with two Championship-tested additions now pushing Ibou Touray and Josh Neufville for starting roles.

This is where the season’s next inflection point likely sits, in my view at least.

Sure, I’d love to be proved wrong and would welcome Jatta or Langstaff through the door were they to join. I see the points being made about taking advantage of the momentum we currently have and don’t disagree with the sentiment – but given Rupp’s record as an owner and the club’s recent history when it comes to the January market, I’m struggling to see a situation in which we go ‘all in’.

Which means the real catalyst this season may not arrive in the form of a headline signing, but in how City choose to optimise what’s already on the pitch – the same players that not only propelled us out of League Two in the first place, but also cemented us a force to be reckoned with in League One.

Because despite the recent noise, we really ought to be pinching ourselves. Zoom out, and City remain firmly in an upward channel – competitive, positioned, and very much in control of their own path toward the business end of the season.

Corrections happen. Momentum ebbs. Sentiment swings.

But until the underlying structure breaks, I remain firmly in the bullish camp.

Categories: Opinion

Tags: BCAFC