By Jason McKeown

Perhaps, Alex Gilliead’s 89th minute thunderbolt equaliser will prove to be the turning point. Or maybe it just delays the inevitable. So much of Bradford City’s early season form gives off cliff edge vibes, with Mark Hughes and his charges dangling on the precipice between competency and implosion. It all seems to be unravelling – but as yet, nothing is broken.

Broken would be a fair word to describe the Bantams’ woeful first half performance here, as they were meekly second best to an impressive and purposeful Grimsby Town. The home side got an awful lot better after the break, and ultimately were good value for the point Gilliead’s late strike earned them. And so perhaps, because of the lessons learned here in the baking September heat, City are in a better position going forwards.

Perhaps.

We’ll come onto talk about that second half display from City, which had plenty to like and take heart from. But we can’t pretend the first half didn’t happen. The Bantams had a real shocker of a 45, producing a performance so devoid of purpose and intelligence that you were left scratching your head over what the plan was supposed to be.

Grimsby are known for playing a high press and it was on full display from the get-go. It’s fair to assume Hughes wanted to counter it by the usual playing it out from the back, in the hope that Grimsby’s press would invite space behind to exploit, but it just didn’t work. Grimsby’s press was too good, City’s passing too slow. They did sometimes find Richie Smallwood and Kevin McDonald in areas where they had time to pick out a pass over the top, but City’s forward three of Bobby Pointon, Jamie Walker and Matty Derbyshire were just too isolated, making it easy for the visitors to cut out passes.

City were relying on Smallwood and McDonald to produce inch-perfect passes over long distances to get in behind. It not surprisingly had a very low success rate. At one point Smallwood turned and tried to send Brad Halliday away . The ball nearly reached the full back but went out for a throw in. We all clapped the City skipper for how close he was. Yep, it was a low bar.

The three at the back was on show for City – of course it was – and the results were highly questionable. Up against a high press, it should allow triangle moments of City players linking up and passing around their opponents. Of one defender breaking through into midfield to support attacks. Of wing backs having greater freedom to attack, knowing they’re not leaving huge gaps behind. But it’s just not working that way for Hughes. The players at his disposal are lacking the dynamism to make it a success.

You have to give Grimsby credit too. Paul Hurst, the man who was once next Bradford City manager in waiting, played a 4-1-4-1 formation that allowed his forward players to press whilst also crowding out Smallwood and McDonald. Kamil Conteh sat deep in front of his back four and was an effective barrier to City’s attempts to get forward. Hughes initially had Walker and Pointon alongside Derbyshire in a 3-4-3, then switched to Pointon behind Walker and Derbyshire. Neither set-up worked. City were completely toothless.

The other frustration is that City’s three at the back approach isn’t leading to defensive solidity. When you’re effectively picking five defenders, you should be pretty good at keeping the opposition out. But the goal Grimsby deservedly scored just before half time illustrated just how easy the Bantams are to play through. A crossfield ball drew Lewis Richards back, and there was a huge amount of space afforded to Toby Mullarkey. As the Mariners’ full back swung over a cross, there were six City shirts in their own penalty area and just two Grimsby players. Yet somehow Danny Rose was left free to plant a header into the bottom corner.

What happened next underlined the cliff edge feel about things right now. An impressively large Grimsby Town following gleefully sung that Mark Hughes was “getting sacked in the morning”. In the home ends, some fans joined in with the chant, and others clapped it. At best, the opposition taunting of Hughes attracted silence from most City supporters. No one in that moment was prepared to defend the City boss, as social media lit up with a flurry of Hughes out calls.

This was clearly the most significant dip in Hughes’ popularity amongst his Bradford public. The moment the ice beneath him began to crack. Half time conversations were fuelled by speculation over how long he might last – to the end of the season, to the end of the month, to the end of the weekend even?

But to Hughes’ credit, he engineered a big improvement. The second half saw the ditching of three at the back, with Ciaran Kelly and McDonald withdrawn for Alex Gilliead and Rayhann Tulloch. City returned to the typical 2022/23 formation of 4-2-3-1, with Pointon and Tulloch as wide forwards. And everything began to make sense again.

It became a completely different game. Each and every City player looking more comfortable in their own skin. More assured of their responsibilities. Several free kicks were won in promising areas. After earning no corners in the first half, City clocked up five in the first 10 minutes of the second half alone. The pressure began to build, and the home fans responded brilliantly to create a cauldron of noise.

Some players can wilt in such high stake circumstances. Others thrive. One player in particular stood tall when City needed him.

Remember the name, Bobby Pointon.

What a truly fantastic home debut this proved to be for the 19-year-old youth product. Pointon flourished out wide and everything good about City came through him. He is a fun-size Phil Foden. Comfortable charging forward with the ball, taking people on, finding teammates with clever passes, and making intelligent runs.

Watch Pointon receive the ball, do something magical, and then look down at yourself – and I bet you’ll find you’re clinging to the edge of your seat.

What stands out right now is Pointon’s decision-making. You expect young players to make mistakes as they build up their knowledge, but Pointon seemed to get everything right. No City player who started the game had a better passing success rate that Pointon here. For someone so inexperienced to be so influential – and to embrace so much responsibility – is something to feel very excited about.

Let’s not get carried away and put too much pressure on the lad. But my goodness, we may have something special here. Take a bow, Bobby.  

Yet for all City’s improvement, they remained extremely limited in front of goal. Derbyshire has waited sometime to get a start, but did nothing to press his claims for more gametime here. Derbyshire struggled against a physical and imposing Grimsby backline, and lacked the pace to run in behind them. He cannot press, which means City cannot press. The 37-year-old might still offer something when playing alongside an Andy Cook or a Vadaine Oliver, but lone striker he is not.

Only he is the lone striker, of course. City went into this game with Derbyshire their only fit striker. And Hughes’ post-match admission that Cook could be out for up to a month means that City’s goalscoring problems are not going to be quickly solved. The absence of Cook, Oliver, Tyler Smith, Alex Pattison, Clarke Oduor, and Harry Chapman is huge right now. And – watching City huff and puff, but have so little up front in the second half here – you have to have some level of sympathy for Hughes.

Well, that is until you remember two very important words: Jake Young.

Yet when the second half went into a bit of a lull midway through, Hughes was able to further demonstrate the positive influence he can make. Derbyshire was taken off for Chisom Afoka with 23 minutes to go, and the on-loan Aston Villa winger’s direct running and skill on the ball caused problems for a tiring Grimsby backline. Afoka is raw for sure and got things wrong, but he invoked panic in the opposition and a buzz from the crowd. He could be a fun player. Tulloch also showed some promise.

It all looked in vain, until Gillead struck to make it 1-1. Inevitably Pointon was involved, stretching the Grimsby backline to leave room for Gilliead to run onto, and playing an incisive pass to the 27-year-old. A clever touch, a powerful strike, and the ball was in the back of the net. Valley Parade erupted. The mood music completely changed.  

The late drama saved Hughes from further supporter scrutiny. Criticism will inevitably still be aired over the coming days, but he will continue to be City manager for now. That said, he remains on that cliff edge, with his approval rating on the decline. He’s at the stage where anti Hughes chants and public dissent are still a little way off, but 20-page ‘Hughes out’ message board threads will be prevalent. That is to say, he can still just about turn it around.

What will help Hughes going forwards is if he takes on board the learnings from this game. This surely has to be the end to three at the back, at least for now. So far this season, Hughes has persisted with a formation supporters are not convinced by – and which players do not look fully comfortable operating within. It’s time to park ideals and to focus on getting the best out of what he has. If at 2pm next Saturday the Bradford City team sheet for the derby game with Harrogate shows three at the back, expect an almighty backlash.

Hughes worryingly spent some of his post-match interview with BBC Radio Leeds arguing the three at the back formation wasn’t the reason for City’s tepid first half display. He might have a point, but he’s not going to win this argument. Swallow your pride. Get your public back on side. Play in a way that best suits the hand you’ve been dealt. And in return, we promise not to mention the haphazard recruitment efforts that mean we now have six centre backs (and five full backs) on the books.  

In some ways, I do have empathy and understanding for Hughes right now, and the thinking behind the changes he’s implemented over the summer. In 2022/23, City ultimately delivered a par performance. They probably had around the fifth or sixth highest budget in the league, and that’s where they finished. A play off defeat was a reasonable return for the resources at Hughes’ disposal.

And when you could see the division was only going to be tougher this year, with at least four other teams overtaking City’s budget, in many ways he had to do something different. If Hughes had just carried on as he was – with basically the same personnel, formation and tactics – he would probably at best deliver another play off defeat this season. And that wouldn’t be enough, considering Hughes is in the final year of his contract, where realistically he has to deliver a promotion or his managerial career is over.

The ideals of going with three at the back and instil a high press were surely to make better use of the resources available. To overachieve in terms of the financial limitations at Valley Parade. But for whatever reason, the change in style is not making the City squad perform in a greater way than the sum of its parts. And has in fact resulted in a more cautious, defensive outlook. We’ve gone backwards.

In a recent superb piece by Not The Top 20 about the limitations of playing three at the back, Ali Maxwell wrote, “In a 3-5-2 system, your wing-backs have to impact the game offensively. If they don’t, and if the opposition have a decent out of possession structure, you’re likely going to be stodgy as hell.” That analysis pretty much summarises the first half here. And the word “stodgy” neatly describes much of City’s season so far.  

This more pragmatic sort of approach can be tolerated by smaller clubs with lower expectations. But not somewhere like Bradford City. No one is interested in the fact Wrexham, Notts County, Gillingham and others can outspend us. We want League Two dominance.

The problem for Hughes was just how committed he was to this three at the back idea. How much it influenced the summer recruitment approach. Leaving him with an unbalanced squad – and numbers weighed to play a certain way (sorry, we said we wouldn’t mention six centre backs again!) When competitive games have started up, it must have dawned on Hughes that it isn’t working. And so he has had to rely on the loan market to fix recruitment mistakes. Namely, to bring in wide attacking players to fill those gaps.

For Hughes, the worry right now is not so much that he’s in danger of losing his job through poor results – but that he’s already sealed his own fate. Because if the likes of Tulloch, Afoka and Adam Wilson don’t prove to be the answer to City’s dismal lack of goals, the dye is probably cast on their promotion prospects. Hughes (and Stephen Gent) have made some last minute gambles in the transfer market, who might yet be tasked with the role of saving City’s season.

Of course, it might all work out in the end. City might find a way to score goals. And when Cook is fit, he will hopefully revive his form of 2022/23. Right now though, the facts are that City have won only two of their opening seven games, are the second lowest scorers in the division, and have League Two’s 10th lowest shots on goal. They’ve netted fewer goals as a football club than the outcasted player that Hughes has loaned out to Swindon Town.

It all leaves one overarching question: has Hughes dug himself into a hole he can get out of, or has he dug his own grave?

Categories: Match Reviews

Tags: 2023/24, BCAFC, Grimsby Town, League Two