Written by Jake Verity (images by John Dewhirst)

It’s funny, isn’t it?

We spent years desperate to get out of League Two.

But then, the other weekend at Wimbledon, we all let out the same collective sigh of frustration as Matty Stevens stuck a third in the back of our net.

The fact is we’re fourth. Yes, fourth in the League One table.

But my word, it feels like we should be even higher, doing even better.

Football can change quickly.

Win Saturday, and we’re 13 points ahead of Reading, who currently occupy seventh.

And should Lincoln lose to Blackpool and away at Cardiff the following weekend, we may have a chance at 3pm on the 7th March to go four points behind second again.

This season is funny. We’ve just won eight of our last nine home games.

But lost seven out of our last eight away.

The last time we drew was away at Bolton on the 22nd November, almost 100 days ago.

Unlike the time we came closest to the Championship under Stuart McCall in 2016/17, we might have a formidable home record. But we don’t really draw games. It’s all or nothing.

Can you remember the last time, besides Cardiff, where you walked into Valley Parade and felt like anything other than a win was on the cards?

Burton was, of course, a shock. Town was a nice surprise. But seriously, I think the last time we genuinely feared we might not win at home was maybe even Walsall at home last January. We won that 3-0.

I know that sounds a tad ridiculous. But we’ve really been that good at Valley Parade. It’s totally unfathomable just how good our home form has been. 30 wins, six draws and just four losses at Valley Parade over the last two seasons.

That’s absolutely nuts.

For context, on that trajectory over a 46-game season, we’d be on 110 points. That wouldn’t just win us the league most seasons. It’d make us record breakers, if it wasn’t for Birmingham City last year breaking the all–time EFL points record.

The flip side of the story is a bit dull. But it’s not even bad.

We’ve won nine, drawn 13 and lost 10 over the last 32 games away from home across the last two seasons. Extrapolated, that’s 58 points. Roughly a mid-table finish last season. Nothing to write home about, but for our first season back in League One you’d more than take that.

The stats

Now caveats. Most of these results were in the division below. But they do tell you a lot.

That maybe, just maybe, we’re not actually so bad away from home.

And if we were to be any better, we’d go from being an excellent team to an elite team.

Now look at the next month after Reading. We’ve got 20th, 24th, 21st, 16th, 17th and 11th. We simply have to win most of these games. April’s a bit more of a mixed bag: 22nd, 9th, 8th, 15th, 3rd and then 14th on the final day in May.

Put simply, we’ve got a ridiculous chance to go up still.

Extrapolating a record of 17 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses over a 46-game season, taking into account a 13-2-2 home record and a 4-5-7 away record, with six home and seven away matches remaining, projects to roughly a 24-10-12 finish.

Or, in simple words, 82 points.

That would be more than enough for a good play off finish.

So carry on as we are and things look bright.

But there’s obviously a chance to do more. To be better. To go that one step further.

Onto the weekend

And that starts at Reading on Saturday.

Alexander has talked this week about the need for rotation and not to lose key players. We know that’s true.

But equally, we have to be as competitive away from home as possible, and it’s fair to say we have a squad now that’s slowly forming its best XI.

Argue if you wish, but I think most City fans would agree roughly speaking that:

Walker Neufville, Pennington, Baldwin, Tilt/Touray/Wright (two of the following, depending on fitness!) Power, Metcalfe, Sarcevic, ST, Pointon

is becoming our best squad. The striker spot feels the only one really up for debate. And although that feels a little harsh on Joe Wright, you could make a case for him being included at CB depending on opposition.

We do actually have a decent squad, with more strength in depth than we care to realise. For a squad that’s just been promoted and had to do a lot of recruitment, quickly, we’ve got a pretty decent time. Sure, it isn’t the same as perhaps some of the other teams around us, but it is more than good enough.

For example, our number 9 still remains unclear, but we have decent options.

Mullin, Jackson, Swan, Humphrys and Wheatley mean we have five choices if all are fit, but for now it seems there are just three.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Humphrys start at Reading after a couple of goals in his last couple of away appearances.

As was made abundantly clear in the fans’ forum, we might not have millions to splash around like other clubs. But we certainly are competitive. That’s a more than good enough bunch of strikers to have at your disposal in League One.

And we know there’s some players elsewhere in the squad who can make us a lot of money because they are young and talented. The hope of course being that they progress with us, rather than going elsewhere.

It’s of course not just as simple as the lineups we’re choosing, as to why we’re losing away from home. There’s the lack of a Valley Parade atmosphere, but also it seems the squad is often more reserved and happy to stand off than we are at home.

The last time it’s easy enough to remember us pressing hard away was at Cardiff. And that was arguably our best performance on the road, if not in general, in years against a really excellent side.

But it does feel like we need to play our strongest team this weekend. Make a real statement of intent.

Where’s all this going, though?

Long story short, we must go to Reading and win. Then we can reassess where we really are.

But it could be the first step towards turning our away form around.

And if we can do that, while keeping Valley Parade as a fortress, who knows where we’ll end up.

It all sounds so simple, doesn’t it?

Categories: Opinion

Tags: 2025/26, BCAFC