By Jason McKeown

It’s not done until it’s done. Saturday’s 1-0 defeat to Stevenage was hardly catastrophic for Bradford City’s play-off hopes, but it was a timely reminder that a top-six finish is not yet secured.

They still need to win at least one, if not two, of their final four games. And whilst that’s not exactly a difficult ask, the remaining fixtures offer different reasons to suggest they won’t be easy. Their last two home games are tougher on paper than their away fixtures, which is perhaps not the ideal combination when City have been so good on their own patch and so flaky on the road.

Still, there is nothing to fear. The League One games this midweek and at the weekend could mathematically seal an extended end to the season.

Let’s take a look at the state of play.

Who can catch Bradford City?

Even after the Stevenage loss, City are in a healthy third-place position with a significant eight-point cushion on seventh-place Plymouth. If there are any doubts they might mess it up from here, they will be felt amongst Bradford City supporters rather than outside BD8. To onlookers, we are pretty much home and dry.

The following table shows the current league standings, and the maximum points teams outside the play-off places could still achieve from their remaining fixtures.

It might seem strange to include mid-table Barnsley and Mansfield in this list, but with their games in hand they could technically overtake the Bantams if they win every remaining fixture. Unlikely, but they may harbour faint play-off hopes during the run-in – something that, in Barnsley’s case, we’ll come back to.

Including Barnsley and Mansfield, six of the seven teams below the play-off line could mathematically overtake the Bantams (Wycombe are the only exception). But those maximum points are useful to consider. 76 is the most any of the chasers can reach, meaning 77 points would absolutely guarantee City a play-off finish. So two more wins definitely seals it.

So who should City be most concerned about? Plymouth probably top the list. Since losing to City at Home Park in December, Argyle have been on an incredible run, winning 14 of their last 25 league games to climb from second bottom to the cusp of the play-offs. They still have to travel to Valley Parade, but if City avoid defeat to Plymouth and win one of their other games, they’re guaranteed to finish above them.

Luton are the other side to keep a close eye on. They’ve won four of their last five league games and have belatedly found form. Their remaining fixtures aren’t especially difficult either: home games against Northampton and Barnsley, plus trips to Rotherham and Mansfield. They then go to Bolton on the final day, which would be tough – although it could be a Bolton side resting players in preparation for the play-offs.

Luton can afford to lose one of those five games if City pick up no more than two points in their remaining fixtures.

As for the other challengers, there’s not too much to worry about. City need four more points to definitely finish above Huddersfield, one more point to better Reading, one more point to end above Mansfield, and two more to finish ahead of Barnsley – and that’s assuming those sides win all their remaining games.

What’s coming up?

It’s a busy midweek, with 14 League One teams in action. It begins on Tuesday, with Bolton playing Stevenage (the Trotters will reclaim third spot from City if they avoid defeat) and Huddersfield hosting a Cardiff side close to sealing automatic promotion. A defeat for Town would mean the Bantams need only one more point to definitely finish above their fierce local rivals. A victory for the Terriers would lift them to seventh and within six points of City, having player an extra game.

Tuesday also sees the darkest of horses, Mansfield and Barnsley, in action. Mansfield travel to Leyton Orient, while Barnsley visit bottom side Port Vale. If the Tykes win, they could close the gap to the play-offs to 10 points with a game in hand. That could be significant for the Bantams, as it would mean travelling to Oakwell on Saturday to face a side still with something to play for.

A good night for City? A Cardiff win, a draw between Bolton and Stevenage, and both Barnsley and Mansfield failing to win.

Onto Wednesday

Luton – newly crowned Jonny Paint winners – host a Northampton side who will be relegated if they fail to win. Northampton have lost seven in a row, so it would be a major shock if Luton don’t take three points.

Meanwhile Stockport – who lost to Luton at Wembley – play one of their two games in hand when they travel to an AFC Wimbledon side suddenly in freefall (six defeats and a draw in their last seven, leaving them precariously above the bottom four).

A Stockport win would close the gap on City to one point with a game in hand, while a Luton victory would reduce the Bantams’ lead from eight points to seven.

If Huddersfield and/or Luton win this midweek, the Bantams jeopardy raises slightly – albeit with City still in a very strong position.

A good night for City? A pair of shock results.

Saturday lunchtime

City are up next. They go to Barnsley for a 12.30pm kick off, with Bolton vs Huddersfield also picked live for Sky.

Barnsley have long looked consigned to mid-table mediocrity, and that may still be the case before kick-off. But if they beat Port Vale midweek, it would be back-to-back wins and renewed confidence. Still, they haven’t won at home since the start of March, making this a decent fixture for City.

As for Bolton vs Huddersfield, much depends on midweek results. If Town beat Cardiff and either Stevenage or Stockport drop points, they could go into this match just two points off the play-offs. A win here, combined with a City defeat at Oakwell, could leave them just three points behind the Bantams.

Another away defeat for City would undoubtedly raise concerns. Plymouth are up next on Tuesday, and losing at Barnsley would leave all eyes on Argyle’s 3pm kick-off that same day.

A good lunchtime for City? Win, and other results barely matter. In fact, they could even confirm their play-off place by 5pm.

Saturday 3pms

As City head back up the M1 from Barnsley, the remaining League One fixtures take place – with particular focus on Plymouth and Luton.

Plymouth travel to AFC Wimbledon, who, as mentioned, are in freefall. That’s why defeat at Oakwell could feel worrying: if City lose and Argyle win, the gap would shrink to five points ahead of Tuesday’s meeting between the two sides. If Luton also win at Mansfield (and have beaten Northampton midweek), they would be just four points behind City.

And when City and Plymouth face each other on Tuesday week, Luton travel to Rotherham – who could be relegated by then.

Possible yikes.

Elsewhere at 3pm on Saturday, Stockport go to struggling Exeter, Reading host Cardiff, and Stevenage welcome Lincoln.

A good afternoon for City? If they’ve won at Oakwell, any dropped points for Plymouth mean Argyle can no longer catch them. If Luton drop points in either of their games, City could effectively have it wrapped up by winning in South Yorkshire.

Ifs, buts, maybes

There are plenty of variables at play, so we won’t go deeper into the remaining games for now. For now, the eight-point lead gives City a huge advantage. They would have to collapse completely to miss out from here. And while the remaining fixtures aren’t easy, their record across the first 42 games makes it hard to see a sudden drop-off.

We also haven’t really talked about another important factor – the form of the other sides currently in the play-offs. As the camping saying goes – you don’t have to outrun the bear; you just have to outrun the person next to you. In City’s case, as long as they match the results of one or two of Bolton, Stockport and Stevenage, they will probably be okay regardless of what teams currently outside the play-offs do.

And there are reasons to be optimistic here. Stockport are going through an injury crisis – at Wembley they had to play striker Kyle Wootton in defence. Bolton and Stevenage are of course playing each other this Tuesday – so one or both are dropping points. Bolton’s run-in is very tough, and they still have to come to Valley Parade.

Still, it might get a little tighter before it’s sealed. If the Bantams lose their next two games, the jeopardy really rises. They don’t really want to have to go into that Bolton game needing to win.

That all remains to be seen. The old cliché of taking one game at a time absolutely rings true. But this is what it all comes down to.

The job is all but done.

The cushion is there. The path is clear.

Now it’s just a question of whether Bradford City take it – or let it drag on longer than it needs to.

Categories: Opinion

Tags: BCAFC