Metrics

By Width of a Post on October 16, 2026 • ( 0 )

By William Wade

Since the appointment of Michael Duff as Alexander’s successor a week last Tuesday, a word we have heard frequently from the higher ups at Bradford City is metrics. David Sharpe and Ryan Sparks highlighted that Duff was the stand-out candidate due to the similar character traits he possesses with his former teammate Graham Alexander, but also the key metrics that he hits better than any other manager that can carry on our success.

City employed two data companies to examine the success of Alexander’s Bradford City team, highlighting a few key themes that pinpoint our success. And if Duff can hit these same metrics as pinpointed by Sharpe and co, then City will likely continue the success that Alexander founded over his three-year stay.

However, two key metrics that we don’t need the data companies to highlight which keep persisting are our chance creation and goals tally.

The attacking metrics make for ugly reading, with City coming in 22nd for chances created, with Huddersfield leading the way with triple the chances created. Further to this, City come in at 21st for shots per 90 minutes and 20th for shots on target per 90 minutes. With stats like these, it is no wonder City have only scored eight goals in nine games.

It is a testament to City’s structure and defence that we stand second in the League, with six clean sheets out of nine and conceding the fewest goals in the league. The old adage of 1-0 to the Arsenal has quickly become 1-0 to the Bantams, and if City can continue their rock-solid defence, we will be in a great position come the end of the season. However, it is hard to believe that City will be able to stand firm every match, especially against the stronger teams in the division and will need to improve their chance creation and conversion to keep up the good form.

The dour draw against Leyton Orient on Saturday could in no way be attributed to Duff and only highlighted what we have witnessed week in, week out this season. City totally resilient at the back, but creating very few chances – and unlike in previous weeks where we have got our noses in front and held out, we were unable to convert one chance in front of goal.

Duff alluded in his post-match interview with BBC Radio Leeds’ Jamie Raynor that goals have been the problem in the past and that it appears it will be the case going forward.

So what can Duff do to improve our attacking threat for the remaining 37 games?

Antoni Sarcevic

One area Duff could review is the role of Antoni Sarcevic. There has been contentious debate surrounding this throughout pre-season, and in the opening nine games, both on X and undoubtedly on North Parade. Whilst X (or twitter) is not the best place to find the most reasonable of opinions, many believe Sarcevic should be deployed further up the field, like last year, because he’s too slow and gets bypassed in midfield.

I don’t agree that Sarcevic isn’t good in the middle. I thought he showed his class vs Leyton Orient, consistently knitting play together in midfield and spreading the ball out wide. I think it is a poor argument to suggest that we find ourselves in second in spite of Sarcevic in the middle and he must have played a key role in our league position to date.

It is a credit to the ability and sheer brilliance of Sarcevic that he is capable of dropping deeper into centre midfield and maintaining City’s standing towards the top. However, Sarcevic often both last year and the year before, was our most creative spark and one of our biggest goal threats in one of the 10 roles, and our creativity has dwindled with him moving deeper in midfield.

He was our top scorer in the league last season, whilst also being first for goals and assists combined as well as being first for xG over 46 games. Remove Sarcevic from the areas he can make a real impact in front of goal and it’s no surprise that he and we haven’t been scoring the goals we so crave.

If Sarcevic is the best number 10 we have, and is key to our chance/goal creation, which the stats suggest, then he has to play in that role. The signing of Adam Phillips brought a lot of hype in pre-season and it is too early to draw conclusions on the player himself, though I haven’t seen enough to suggest that he is better than Sarcevic in the 10.

Moving Sarcevic to number 10 appears as a way to accommodate all three of Phillips, Bobby Pointon and Sarcevic. However, if it comes to the detriment of our attacking play then maybe Duff should look to pivot, deploy one of Kieran Morgan, Henry Cartwright or George Lapslie in central midfield, and move Sarcevic back to his more familiar City role – a role that has been so successful in his time with us.

Stephen Humphrys

Another area of contentious debate is the involvement, or lack of it so far, of Stephen Humphrys. It is fair to say that Humphrys is a frustrating player, who on his day he is clearly one of the most exciting and dangerous players in the league, however does that day come often enough for a team competing for promotion?

I don’t agree with the suggestion that he doesn’t try. I think he cuts a frustrated figure, one who is out of his natural role and cannot be expected to hit 20 goals a season like a certain Andy Cook in League Two.

He is a maverick player, one that some managers would love to have, though it was clear during his tenure that Alexander didn’t have much room for these kinds of players.

However, apart from Nick Powell, is there anyone else in the squad who can score a goal out of nothing or create a moment, especially in games where the opposition come to frustrate and break down the game? Humphrys highlighted this, ironically, against Leyton Orient back in February when he brilliantly played Sarcevic in for the winner despite City being down to ten men.

With 20 minutes to go on Saturday, City needed someone like Humphrys to provide a bit of ingenuity to break the deadlock and give City that all-important lead. A lead that, once we have it, we rarely give up, especially at home!

Whether Duff is the sort of manager who will look to utilise the strengths of Humphrys remains to be seen, but Humphrys coming off the bench on his favoured left-hand side, running at defenders, can only be beneficial to City’s attacking threat and output.

Jake Beesley

The signing of Jake Beesley in the summer provided hope to City fans that we had found the striker that, at times, we were crying out for last season.

It is often said that we are a graveyard for forwards. Since Peter Thorne, only Nahki Wells, Charlie Wyke and Cook have been clinical with James Hanson also having a successful time at the club.

While every fan wants a striker who buries 25 goals a season, if the choice is between a striker who scores 12-15 goals, fits the style of the team and competes in the promotion/play-off race over a striker who scores 25 goals, doesn’t suit the rest of the team and competes in lower mid-table, then the choice is clear!

There has been unfair criticism thrown Beesley’s way this season and he cannot be expected to score goals when he is provided so few goalscoring opportunities. Only against Cambridge at home did he squander a couple of chances. City ping a lot of crosses into the box and while we send in more crosses than most, they aren’t much good if they don’t have enough quality to land on Beesley’s head.

Beesley showed last week at Reading that when a quality cross is put on his head, he is deadly.

In summary

It’s always said, especially by strikers, that scoring goals is the toughest aspect of the game and it is clear that City are having trouble of late creating chances and scoring goals.

The acquisitions of Beesley and Phillips, both with a history of scoring goals at this level, brought hope that City had significantly upgraded their goal threat. However, so far it hasn’t proved that way.

If Duff can find a way of increasing our attacking threat while at the same time keeping the defensive solidity, then City, come the end of the season, will be well and truly up there vying for a place in the Championship for the first time since 2004.

The next weeks and months will show the slight differences in Duff’s style to Alexander’s. A move to his favoured 3-5-2 could be a route he looks to take. However, it will be extremely interesting how he views the roles of Humphrys and, particularly, Sarcevic.